The following is a listing of what I believe to be the Tigers' top three first base prospects. (Ages are as of 4/1/10)

Ryan Strieby, Erie
24, 6’5”, 235, Bats: R

PA: 362
AVG: .303
OBP: .427
SLG: .565
XBH%: 42.7
K%: 21.1
BB%: 9.6
wOBA: .445

Strieby has spent the last two seasons crushing the ball and the only thing that’s been standing in his way - besides Miguel Cabrera - has been a wrist injury. It ended his 2008 season early and held him under 300 at bats in 2009. The Tigers have still definitely taken notice of what he’s done when he’s been healthy. They want him to make a go at playing left field to make use of a bat that has allowed him to put up among the best numbers in his league each of the last two seasons.

If that takes to where he’s even adequate - doubtful from what I’ve heard - he could step into a Marcus Thames-like role in Detroit. Incidentally, don’t worry too much about his being a right-handed hitter. He’s not had severe splits as a minor leaguer.

James Robbins, GCL
19, 6’0”, 225, Bats: L

PA: 39
AVG: .361
OBP: .410
SLG: .583
XBH%: 23.1
K%: 23.1
BB%: 7.7
wOBA: .462

One of the Tigers’ over slot signings, taken in the 30th round, Robbins made a big impression by homering in each of his first two professional games. That’s probably more of an interesting footnote than anything telling, though. What’s more interesting is he’s a talented player and a good athlete who also could have been drafted as a pitcher. In fact, when Bill Ferris of Detroit Tigers Weblog asked him about whether he’d been tried at other positions (because of Cabrera being a likely fixture at first) it seemed like Robbins thought he meant getting some work from the mound.

He’ll be staying in the field, though, and he seems like he might be more likely than Strieby to have a successful conversion to the outfield. That’s if the Tigers decide to go that way. There’s nothing saying the conversion has to be made. If he ever approaches the majors, it’s likely three or four years off and this offseason has illustrated anybody can be moved if the opportunity presents itself.

Juaner Aguasvivas, DSL Tigers
20, 6’3”, 226, Bats: R

PA: 286
AVG: .257
OBP: .325
SLG: .432
XBH%: 31.8
K%: 22.4
BB%: 7.7
wOBA: n/a

Aguasvivas has spent three seasons in the Dominican Summer League and last season stepped up with some big time power for the first time. His twelve homers led the league  and allowed him to clear the league average slugging percentage by over 100 points.

He’s not going to make a name for himself putting up big numbers in the Dominican, though. Stats there are notoriously deceptive and certainly not predictive of future success. He’s going to have to do it in the States and at 20, it’s going to have to come soon. He wasn’t in the Tigers’ Instructional League, but I think it’s possible he could be one of the players who makes his domestic debut in 2010.

Honorable Mention

When you’re dipping down to 20-year olds who haven’t played in the states yet for your top three prospects, you probably don’t have a lot in the way of first base prospects. I will give Rawley Bishop a mention for having a fine season last season in Oneonta (.282/.378/.439), but he was also a college senior going into the draft, was drafted in the 19th round and is already 24 years old. I wouldn’t look for him to burst onto the national prospect scene in 2010.

Position Summary

This is a position where there isn't much at the top after Ryan Strieby. The only other real prospects are years away and they're not exactly blue chips even with that in mind. The good news is they have Miguel Cabrera locked up for a long time, so a lack of depth at the minor league level isn't all that alarming.

The Tigers made their non-roster invitees public yesterday, and it’s not a long list. You have five pitchers, five catchers and three infielders. The pitchers are Phil Dumatrait, Enrique Gonzalez, Josh Rainwater, Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt. I could be wrong, but I don’t see a lot of intrigue here in terms of guys fighting to make the major league squad. Satterwhite and Weinhardt certainly have the arms. However, Satterwhite has control issues he needs to get past and I think it will take more than a good spring to prove that. As for Weinhardt, while I think he will make his major league debut this season, I just think the Tigers are going to want to see more from him at the upper levels.

The other three, I suspect, will just be giving innings and trying to earn a spot on the Hens. Dumatrait is a lefty, so fighting his way onto the bullpen would require pushing past all but one or two of Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, Fu-Te Ni and Brad Thomas, who are all on the 40-man roster already. Rainwater and Gonzalez throw from the right side, but it’s not like that makes it any easier for them. There are going to be some phenomenal arms fighting for one or two spots in the bullpen and again, I think these guys will be happy to get Triple A pay and maybe consideration later in the season.

At the catching position, there’s Robinzon Diaz, Mike Rabelo, John Murrian, Eric Roof and Max St. Pierre. Diaz has a real shot at making the major league club and may even be the favorite to be the backup catcher on the Tigers - at least early in the season. I suppose Rabelo is angling for that same job, but I hope the Tigers have had enough of their backups giving them almost literally nothing at the plate once or twice a week. The other three are most likely in camp because there are going to be something like 26 pitchers, who all need to throw to somebody.

I guess there’s a little bit of intrigue among the infielders. I don’t think any of them - Kory Casto, Jeff Larish and Gustavo Nunez - are going to push to make the big squad but they each have their shot at earning a role. Casto could find himself as the starting third baseman for the Hens and maybe not too far down that position’s depth chart. The Tigers simply don't have much at third base in the upper levels. Larish needs to show his wrist isn’t going to be a problem while working his way back into the big league picture.

Nunez may have the most to gain from the exposure. The Tigers are looking for long-term solutions at shortstop and top of the order hitters.  With his skills, he could make an impression as a possibility for both in 2011 or 2012. In the more immediate future, there are three shortstops - Dlugach, Iorg and Ciriaco - who I imagine will be pushing for jobs as starters at the two highest levels of the minors. If Ciriaco ends up on the outside looking in for those two jobs, Nunez may be in a battle for that Lakeland job.

I think the most likely scenario, however, is Nunez getting the Lakeland job, Ciriaco landing in Erie and Iorg being the starter in Toledo. Dlugach, I expect, will move around the infield in a role similar to the only one he is likely to ever have if he finds a niche in the majors.

I know there’s not a lot of excitement in 12 guys who don’t really have much of a shot at making the big league squad right away (Diaz is the most likely exception) but I’d say it’s usually good news that NRIs won’t have much impact on your Opening Day roster.

When the Tigers signed Jose Valverde, the 40-man roster was already full so it was clear somebody was going to have to be exposed to waivers, released or traded. Some thought it would be a pitcher who was a longshot to make the team, such as Casey Fien or Alfredo Figaro. Others thought it might be a position player in the same position, like Don Kelly.

I didn’t hear anybody mention Jeff Larish, but that’s who the Tigers decided to outright to Toledo to make room. Like I said, the move was described as Larish being outrighted to Toledo, and that means he has been taken off the 40-man roster and assigned to Toledo. It also means he has already cleared waivers, so 29 teams took a look at his skills and passed.

That means there’s really no reason to criticize the Tigers for picking the wrong player, as they seem to have correctly assessed the interest around the league in Larish. I suppose what you could criticize is the idea that they might not have cared too much about whether there was interest elsewhere.

He is, after all, a powerful, patient left-handed bat who could serve as something of a backup to Cabrera and maybe get the occasional start as a left-handed bat at DH. The problem is he just doesn’t seem to be a good enough hitter to fill that role. If Cabrera stays healthy, he’d play something like five to ten games at first and fill the rest of his time as a designated or pinch hitter. You have to rake in that role and Larish hasn’t hit well enough to fill it. Not only that, the Tigers have made it very clear they want more flexibility from their bench players.

That’s probably the more intriguing part of this move to me. The Tigers’ bench is going to consist of a:

Backup Catcher (Robinzon Diaz or Alex Avila, probably)
Ramon Santiago (or somebody like him if he gets hurt)
Ryan Raburn
Another Backup Outfielder (Clete Thomas most likely, but maybe Casper Wells or Wilkin Ramirez)
Somebody else

We know that somebody else isn’t going to be Larish, so what will they look for there? Personally, I believe they’ll look for somebody else who can play second base. Santiago and Everett seem likely to be in another time share at shortstop. If they also use Santiago to spell Sizemore at second, he could get to where he’s exceeding the amount of playing time they want him to have. Since I think they will want to give Sizemore some days off, I think they’ll look for that fifth bench player to fill in.

On the current roster, that could be Brent Dlugach or Don Kelly. Then there’s always the chance they look to a veteran through either waivers, a low cost trade (something like the Josh Anderson deal last year) or free agency. Before this move, I thought that fifth spot was the best chance for a bat like Ryan Strieby or Jeff Larish to make the team. I suppose it's still possible - though very unlikely, in my opinion - the reason they're okay with losing Larish and Thames is they really like Strieby for that spot.

Arbitration

The Tigers are in the middle of arbitration season, and just like always they appear to want to handle it quickly and without much incident. They didn’t even have to exchange offers with Gerald Laird, Bobby Seay or Zach Miner. All three had their one year deals announced the day teams and players had to submit their desired salaries.

Laird, in his third and final year of arbitration, is going to make $3.95 million and that represents a raise of about $1.1 million from last year. You’ll hear people wonder how he got a raise after such a horrible year at the plate last year, but the raise is more about the increased value of that third year of arbitration than a reward for performance. It’s also important to remember, however, that Laird logged a ton of playing time last year and that is important in arbitration cases.

Bobby Seay, also in his third year of arbitration, received a bump from his $1.3 million contract last year up to $2.475 million. You can obviously pencil him into the Tigers’ bullpen if they don’t trade him between now and the start of the season. It also seems likely that if Fu-Te Ni and one of the Tigers’ other lefty relief candidates (Brad Thomas, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke) are in the pen Seay will probably be given a role in which he continues to see more right-handed batters. In 2008, he faced about an even number of lefties and righties, but last year only 83 of the 209 batters he saw batted from the right side.

Zach Miner was in his first year of arbitration and he’s going to earn a base salary of $950,000. That pretty much locks up yet another spot in the bullpen and with Joel Zumaya agreeing to a salary of $915,000 a couple weeks ago (in his second year of arbitration) the Tigers’ bullpen isn’t going to have a lot of question marks heading into spring training.

In fact, unless Ni doesn’t have a spot locked up (like he probably should) anybody besides Valverde, Zumaya, Seay, Miner, Perry and Ni would be fighting for that seventh spot. If Ni isn’t penciled in, it’s him, Schlereth, Coke, Thomas, Weinhardt, Satterwhite, Fien, any other relief prospects and the leftover starters (Robertson or Galarraga) all fighting for just two spots.

Of course, left out of all this arbitration news is the fact that Verlander is the only arbitration eligible player without a contract for the 2010 season. Because a deal wasn’t reached, the sides had to exchange offers that would be submitted to the arbitrator if things go that far - they never have for any player since Dombrowski has been GM.

Verlander thinks he should be paid $9.5 million and the Tigers countered with an offer of $6.9 million. That’s one of the larger disparities among players who exchanged offers, but I don’t think too many people are sweating this. I’d imagine this will lead to his getting paid between $8 and $8.5 million in 2010 and the Tigers will end up tacking on a few more years.

I think the Tigers have caught a bit of a break in their Verlander negotiations with Josh Johnson of the Marlins signing a four year, $39 million contract and Felix Hernandez inking a five year deal worth $78 million. I’m hoping the Tigers will bring Verlander into the fold for four year at an average annual value somewhere between those two deals. These deals show something of a downturn in the market and give the Tigers something much more favorable to work from than big contracts for pitchers from the past.

Tigers moving out of Oneonta?

It sounds like the O-Tigers might be leaving Oneonta for Norwich, Connecticut (thank you, Bless You Boys). This story doesn’t give a definitive answer to whether they’re moving and the press conference mentioned was delayed so we still don’t know.

If the Tigers do move to Norwich, it might be a little hard on the incoming prospects in 2010. Dodd Stadium is a pitcher’s park to a greater extent than Oneonta’s Damaschke Field. Dan Szymborski’s numbers for minor league park factors show Oneonta suppresses home runs to a great extent, but it is pretty much neutral on runs and hits. Dodd Stadium, on the other hand, is very pitcher friendly in terms of runs, hits, doubles and homers. That’s something to keep in mind if the move happens and a position player drafted by the Tigers struggles next season.

Each year I prepare for the coming season by taking a look at the Tigers’ prospects at each position. I’ve done it a number of different ways, but I think I’ll stick with the process I used last year. I looked at the top three prospects at each position and then threw in a comment or two about some “honorable mentions” I thought might be worth keeping an eye on for one reason or another.

(Ages are as of 4/1/10. I’ve added wOBA this year because it’s a comprehensive stat Fangraphs has made available for minor leaguers. Mike Rogers did a pretty good explanation of it here and you can find another one here. I dropped BABIP, but will probably mention it if it's notable one way or the other.)

Alex Avila, Erie/Detroit
23, 5’11”, 210, Bats: L

PA: 387/72
AVG: .264/.279
OBP: .365/.375
SLG: .450/.590
XBH%: 41.4/52.9
K%: 19.9/25.0
BB%: 13.4/13.9
wOBA: .371/.407

Avila was drafted in 2008 and some assumed it was an overdraft because of his father being in the front office. He responded by hitting well in the pitcher friendly Midwest League, but detractors pointed to his lack of power (14 doubles, one homer in 58 games). The Tigers believed, though, and jumped him to Erie for 2009.

He did a good job there of eliminating concerns about his power. As you can see above, a lot of his hits went for extra bases and coupling that with a good approach at the plate earned him a surprise callup. I was one of the skeptics when that move was made, but Avila again silenced non-believers. He doubled in his first game, homered in his second and had two hits in four of his first five.

He obviously cooled off from that torrid start and had sparse playing time as the season wore on, but he’s made believers of the prospect watching community. Not surprisingly since he’s been at the position for just three years, there is still work to be done on his defense. His strikeout rate in Detroit suggests some tweaks in his swing might help as well, but 2009 impressed a lot of people who saw Avila.

It will be interesting to see where a cool fall (7 for 50 in the Dominican Winter League) and a weak lineup at the major league level will put Avila. The Tigers brought Robinzon Diaz into the organization and many believe he might be the backup to Laird while Avila gets a starter’s role in Toledo. I suspect even if that happens a desire for more sock in the lineup - especially from the left side - will force the Tigers to bring him up.

Jordan Newton, West Michigan/Lakeland
24, 5’10”, 195, Bats: R

PA: 49/289
AVG: .386/.263
OBP: .438/.311
SLG: .750/.447
XBH%: 47.1/42.9
K%: 20.5/30.1
BB%: 4.5/6.0
wOBA: .523/.346

Newton is admittedly old for a prospect who has yet to see Erie. His progress has been slowed by some positional uncertainty, but he spent all of 2009 behind the plate. The fact that he worked to get back there (after playing more outfield in 2008) and spent the season hitting the ball hard in both West Michigan and Lakeland makes him intriguing.

The major detraction here is his free swinging ways. He struck out five times more often than he walked last year and that’s an ugly habit he’s had for three years now. He’s managed to be quite effective despite the poor discipline, but he’s shown better judgment in the past (19 BB, 37 K in Oneonta in 2006). It will be interesting to see if he can keep hitting the ball hard and be a little more selective.

It will also be interesting to see if the the Tigers put him in Erie this season. If they do, I'd like to see what it does to his offensive output as Erie is a much better hitter's environment than either Lakeland or West Michigan.

John Murrian, Oneonta
21, 6’1”, 210, Bats: R

PA: 208
AVG: .296
OBP: .356
SLG: .468
XBH%: 40.0
K%: 15.9
BB%: 7.7
wOBA: .381

Murrian was selected in the 9th round of the 2009 draft and jumped into pro ball with both feet. He tore up the NY-Penn league for the first two months of the season, but cooled off as his first season of pro ball came to a close. From August 21 through the end of the season, he was 6 for 40. I’m not holding that against him, though.

You can’t put a lot of faith in short season numbers. You certainly shouldn’t put much in 40 at bats at that low level. It is good to see, though, that a player the Tigers took early in the draft performed well above league average at a premium defensive position. I would assume the Tigers will give him a shot at doing the same in West Michigan next season.

Honorable mention

It’s dangerous trying to isolate who’s an up-and-comer from the Latino compounds. Information is hard to find. Stats are unreliable at best and downright deceptive a lot of the time. Still, every year when I go through this exercise I try to point out a few guys from the Dominican and Venezuela who look like they might be worth keeping an eye on.

This year, among the catchers I think that player is Gabriel Purroy. The Tigers snatched him up soon after his first signing day. In his first season in the VSL, not only did he start a majority of the games, he looks like he held his own at the plate. The good news is he’ll be just 18 this season and that hopefully softens the blow of the bad news: he’s 5’9” and 160 pounds. I’m sure you remember the skepticism that drew for James Skelton. Hopefully, Purroy has some filling out to do.

This is an article I wrote a couple of weeks ago when it would have been more timely. There are a couple out-of-date lines in there - like saying the Tiger news has been slow - but I thought it was still worth posting.

The internet has changed the way we remember, I think. It used to be if I were going to write about a baseball memory, I would do just that. I'd have to trust my brain to lay the events out as they actually happened instead of subbing in Chet Lemon for Gary Pettis or making me think it was the ninth inning when it was the seventh. Today, I wouldn't write a story about a game I attended the day before without having the box score opened to make sure I had the details correct. There are resources that allow us to get it right most of the time and it's embarrassing to go from memory and see the dreaded reader comment starting with "Actually..." 

However, today I'm going bare-brained. I don't do a lot of looking back in what I write. That's because it doesn't interest me all that much unless it helps me figure something out going forward. Consequently, I don't really have much interest in all the best of the 2000s lists we're seeing right now. So to do one that interested me - it is a slow news time for the Tigers, after all - I had to come up with a hook. 

I wondered if there was a moment from each season of the past decade that stood out in my memory. Just my memory. No poring over Retrosheet box scores and play-by-plays. No going through archives. Just memories. I'm not just relying on memory to pluck moments from the seasons, either. I'm sticking with memory to go back to the point in time. All the details, names and descriptions are right out of my head - no research allowed. So get your red pens ready and follow along. (Click the title to read the article.)

You will find that in my new role as part of the Bloguin network, I won’t really feel as confined to talking about the minor leagues exclusively. The Tiger blogosphere has had a little shaking up lately, and all these changes have me feeling a bit empowered to stretch my wings a bit. I hope you enjoy the results.

I would like to start off by saying I think Jose Valverde is a pretty good pitcher. He’s made a career of striking out a good deal more than a batter per inning and walking about a third as many batters as he strikes out. Combine that with 90 less hits allowed than innings pitched in 386 career innings and that’s a fine way to insert yourself into a late inning role.

He doesn’t do it with smoke and mirrors, either. He dials up a fastball that averaged almost 96 mph and complements it mostly with a split-finger fastball that has a nice 10 mph of separation from the hard stuff.

It’s almost a certainty that Valverde will be a better pitcher out of the bullpen than anybody else the Tigers have on their roster. To my eye, that is the extent of the good news. The bad news starts with the terms of the deal: two years, $14M with a team option in the third year for $9M.

Jose Valverde made $8 million last year and it was assumed he wanted at least that as he hit the open market. The problem he ran into was as a Type A free agent, teams weren’t all that willing to hit that number and give up either their first or second round draft pick.

A week ago, there was a report that he had four offers but only two of them were for more than one year. In the last few days, however, it seemed to be down to the Tigers and the Cardinals and after the Tigers signed Valverde, MLB.com’s Matthew Leach tweeted that the Cards “weren’t going anywhere near that”.

I cannot for the life of me figure out why the Tigers not only nearly matched what Valverde was asking for in a depressed market, but also threw in a second year. For the courtesy of doing so, they are also forfeiting their first round pick, 19th overall. We were told when they moved Granderson and Jackson that the direction was to get younger and more flexible.

Giving up early picks in the draft doesn’t seem to point them in that direction. Neither does adding a pitcher who essentially must close in order to earn his paycheck. The fun doesn’t stop there, though.

If you asked just about anybody who knows about the Tigers’ farm system, they would have said one of the few strengths and positions of depth was their relief pitching. In my opinions, that’s kind of an odd strength to have but there it was.

They spent nearly their entire 2008 draft on relief pitching. Some of their most promising talent from Latin America profiled as relief pitchers. When they traded their promising center fielder and one of their starters this offseason, what did they get in return? A center fielder, a starter, and two relief pitchers.

If I were putting all that effort into one area of the team, I’d like to think that if I went to free agency to bolster it further I’d be looking for a short term fix that could be found at a bargain. Nope. With a lineup full of far too many outs, their big splash in the free agency market is likely to be a reliever.

It makes not a lick of sense to me. People who like the move will say it gives them a surer bet at the closer position. Why do the Tigers have such a burning desire for certainty at the closer position? They are taking a risk on their second baseman. They are taking a risk on their center fielder.

Can they possibly believe their closer is more important to their success than those two positions. It certainly seems possible because Valverde over the next two years will be making precisely as much money as Curtis Granderson would have. Wrap your brain around that.

Once you have, let’s move on to talking about the bullpen. The Tigers have just six open spots now. There’s Valverde and then Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Bobby Seay, Zach Miner, Fu-Te Ni, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, their recent signee out of Korea, Brad Thomas. That’s not even including prospects such as Cody Satterwhite, Robbie Weinhardt, Jay Sborz, Casey Fien or Alfredo Figaro.

It also doesn’t take into consideration that Armando Galarraga, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Miner, Coke and Eddie Bonine are all going to be fighting for that fifth starter spot. They can’t all get it, obviously, and whoever doesn’t either takes up yet another bullpen spot or has no safety net.

That’s a lot of pitchers fighting for a few spots. In a way, that’s a good thing. It could be good to have a lot of viable candidates to choose from in constructing the bullpen. At the same time, it leaves a lot of viable candidates for the bullpen who aren’t going to be contributing to wins for the Detroit Tigers.

That’s a pretty frustrating excess to have when the lineup could desperately use another bat and the rotation still isn’t presented with a fifth starter anybody is going to feel comfortable about.

I fear I may be rambling a bit at this point. If I am, it’s just the frustration talking. This offseason had been a bit frustrating already but at least I could see what the Tigers were trying to do. Give themselves flexibility and put themselves in a position where a couple things breaking their way could place them in the pennant race. At the same time, they added some players who might help when they had the fiscal flexibility to push hard for the playoffs.

Then this. A move for a good, not great, closer that takes away both roster and payroll flexibility when they seemed to be spending the last two or three years making sure they wouldn’t have to spend a lot of money on their bullpen.

This looks to me like a move to convince themselves and fans they are contenders. That’s one approach, but I’d prefer they address bigger team needs to place themselves more squarely in that category.

The good news is the site is up and running again, and much prettier I might add. The bad news is the Tigers seem to be something of a rudderless ship at the moment. Apparently unsure of their place as a team and seemingly unaware of the buyer's market of which they should be taking advantage.

I don't want to start the new location off on such a sour note, though. It's good to have a voice again, and once I've put my thoughts together I'm going to get right down to using it again. Also, please bear with me as I adjust to the new environs. It seems there is still some unpacking to do with my archives and perhaps the order of my posts.

Thanks again for joining me at the new site and for your patience.