The Tigers get a little help from a trade in boosting this category's clout. The other two players profiled are guys who could make a quick name for themselves if they could iron out some troubling kinks in their respective games. There may not be a great amount of depth at this position, but if the Tigers traded well in December they probably won't need it in the near future.

Austin Jackson, Columbus
23, 6’1”, 185, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .300
OBP: .354
SLG: .405
XBH%: 23.8
K%: 22.1
BB%: 7.2
wOBA: .348

With the popularity and prodution of Curtis Granderson, the view of the big trade of the Tigers’ 2009 offseason is likely going to turn on the ultimate success of Austin Jackson. That’s in terms of popular perception and on-the-field production. So what if he turns out to be the hitter the Tigers are hoping he can be while providing center field defense reportedly equal or better to what they received in center the past four seasons? The Tigers would continue to get excellent production from the center fielder and the trade would have netted them a likely upgrade in their rotation (going from Jackson to Scherzer) and bullpen. Added payroll flexibility in 2011, 2012 and 2013 would make it a clear win.

So how likely does it seem that Jackson will be the center fielder the Tigers are hoping he becomes? A lot of that is going to depend on how successful the Tigers are at getting him to go to the plate with an approach suited to a major league leadoff hitter. He’s shown flashes in his career of drawing a number of walks close to what you’d hope for from that spot, but it’s alarming that his strikeouts jumped up to where they tripled his walks last season.

Was there something he was working on that explains the apparent drop in command of the strike zone? One possible explanation is a random sampling of box scores throughout the season would seem to suggest Jackson spent the better part of the season hitting down in the order. Tiger fans should be hopeful a move up to the leadoff spot would bring back an approach designed to get on base more.

If Jackson was swinging for power because he was down in the lineup, it’s not an approach that paid off for him. His .105 isolated power last season was his lowest mark in that category since 2006, when he was a 19-year old playing A ball.

It would seem the smart direction in coaching Jackson would be to get him to focus on swinging at pitches he can hit, making contact and letting the power come with his physical maturity. If that can get him to bump up his walks, cut down his strikeouts and make use of a high BABIP that he’s shown throughout his career, he could be a useful bat even if the power never develops. Put that offensive package with a good center fielder who adds value on the bases and the Granderson trade could turn in the Tigers’ favor sooner than expected.

Casper Wells, Erie
25, 6’2”, 210, Bats: R

PA: 367
AVG: .260
OBP: .369
SLG: .489
XBH%: 45.7
K%: 28.1
BB%: 11.7
wOBA: .381

Wells made a little bit of a surprise return to Erie in 2009, and went down with a wrist injury early in the season, missing almost two months. When he returned, he was able to show his breakthrough 2008 season was anything but a fluke. He wasn’t able to duplicate the impressive numbers he posted in his half season in Erie in 2008, but his production was close enough that he remains a legitimate prospect.

I assume the biggest concern with Wells is his poor contact numbers. He struck out a lot last season. I can usually live with that if the Ks come with production, but I took a close look at his time in the Arizona Fall League. When I did, I discovered while he is pretty good at deciding when a pitch is good to hit, he isn’t necessarily good at making contact when he does swing. The good decisions make for excellent “damage to contact” ratios, but the low contact percentage will suppress his batting average.

If it’s a problem that persists, his eventual worth will depend on whether he can continue to draw walks and hitting for power when pitchers realize which pitches he has trouble putting the bat on. If the extra base hits and walks continue to come, we will be able to live with a batting average that looks like it will probably stay in the .240 to .260 range. That low average will be even easier to live with if reports that he can play all three outfield positions well and has an excellent arm prove to be true.

This coming season could provide us a good idea of where Wells’ skillset is going to take him. Even if he spends the entire season in Toledo, dealing with more advanced pitchers should point to how he will be able to handle, or perhaps improve, contact issues. Success in doing so - and good value on defense - should put him as either a first or second alternative when one of the Tigers’ outfielders goes down to injury.

Ben Guez, West Michigan
23, 5’10”, 175, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .275
OBP: .320
SLG: .483
XBH%: 47.7
K%: 21.7
BB%: 4.1
wOBA: .363

Guez is almost a very intriguing prospect. He hit for a good batting average considering the environment in the Midwest League. He showed a lot of power, as almost half his hits went for extra bases. He is a good center fielder who was able to steal 11 bases in 15 tries and was fast enough to leg out 7 triples. That batting average wasn’t inflated by an unreasonable BABIP if you allow that faster runners can be expected to have higher than average marks in that category (especially ones who hit the ball this hard). He’s probably not going to get by in the .360s every year but the season he had would have been notable with a much lower number, too.

So why is he third on this list and why has his name not come up all that much when Tiger outfield prospects are mentioned? That walk rate is completely unacceptable. You simply do not get by walking only a fifth as much as you strike out, and when you’re 22 in the Midwest League that is especially true.

Let’s not throw him to the scrap heap just yet, though. It’s tempting to only consider players’ most recent season, but we can’t simply ignore what proceeded their most recent seasons. Guez played for Oneonta in 2008 and drew 33 walks in just 305 plate appearances. Was he watching wild, young pitchers miss the plate with straight fastballs? That’s possible, and certainly if I’m paying attention to one of these seasons compared to the other I’m definitely putting much more weight on 2009. Still, I think Guez has better plate discipline in him than what we saw in 2009 and considering the results he saw when his plate discipline was garbage, I’m wondering what he could do should it ever improve.

Honorable mentions: Jamie Johnson was drafted in the 7th round of the 2009 draft and as the O-Tigers’ primary center fielder put up a line of .241/.345/.367 in a league where the average line was .245/.320/.351. It’s not exceptional production, but it’s above average while playing a premium defensive position. That gets a mention from me every time. I’m also going to throw Kyle Peter a mention. He missed a big chunk of last season to injury, but he’s still a very fast baserunner who can play quality center field and knows his strike zone. I doubt he’ll ever hit enough to make the big leagues, but he’ll probably help a few pitchers keep their ERAs down enough to catch some attention.

This series seemed to pick up some momentum in terms of traffic as the post on shortstops picked up some links. As we move to the outfield, we see a group of left fielders whose destinies might be as role players if they ever make the majors at all. Of course, one of the players is too far off to know if he'll even make it past Lakeland.

Wilkin Ramirez, Toledo/Detroit
24, 6’2”, 190, Bats: R

PA: 481/13
AVG: .258/.364
OBP: .326/.385
SLG: .445/.818
XBH%: 36.6/50.0
K%: 29.7/23.1
BB%: 8.5/7.7
wOBA: .350/.468

People are probably ready to see Wilkin Ramirez get a chance, but the truth is he simply hasn’t shown he’s ready to handle a full-time job at the major league level. With that being the case, his problems are only going to get worked out (if they ever get worked out) with game reps. That’s going to have to happen at the Triple A level unless Guillen, Raburn and Damon have a mishap during a male bonding trip to Epcot.

Having said that, I’m skeptical as to whether another year of Wilkin’s hit or miss approach down in Toledo is going to help him much. The numbers he posted there in 2009 were very similar to his 2008 numbers in Erie aside from an elevated BABIP in 2008. That’s encouraging considering it was a step up, but it didn’t really look like the growth the Tigers must have been hoping to see.

So have we seen what Ramirez has to offer? He’s made improvements in his approach at the plate judging by his numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s settled in close to where he’s going to be in terms of walk and strikeout rates. If that’s the case, it’s hard to make a living with a 4:1 K to BB ratio.

That means he’ll have to develop, or at least maintain, his power stroke and make good use of his speed on the bases. Those legs may help get back some of the batting average he loses to strikeouts. Some stolen bases and good power might allow him to stay useful - though maybe as a platoon player or a fourth outfielder - despite an on-base percentage a little too close to .300. It will just be more difficult if he doesn’t develop outfield instincts that can make better use of his speed on defense.

Andy Dirks, Lakeland/Erie
24, 6’0”, 195, Bats: L

PA: 117/408
AVG: .330/.255
OBP: .410/.323
SLG: .379/.349
XBH%: 14.7/22.8
K%: 9.4/15.0
BB%: 11.1/8.8
wOBA: .388/.311

Dirks won out in a group of left field prospects who are a bit old for their level but have some interesting pieces to their game. You can see the others below, but let’s focus on the one I view as having the most potential. He was taken in the 8th round of the 2008 draft and after signing fairly quickly, was assigned to West Michigan. Unfortunately, he broke his hand just three games into his pro career and didn’t again until rehabbing in the GCL in August.

Nevertheless, the Tigers like the “dirt dog” and assigned him to Lakeland to start the 2009 season. To say he took to the promotion may be a bit of an understatement as he only lasted until May before being called to Erie. When the call came, he was hitting well, had walked more than he struck out and stolen 10 bases in 12 tries. It seemed obvious his stock was rising. The aggressive move to Erie seemed to tripped him up, though. He didn’t walk as much, struck out more and didn’t have as many hits falling in. He looked to be a bit lost against lefties and when it was all said and done, it was hard not to chalk the season up as a disappointment after the notable start.

Let’s not write him off quite yet, though. He barely has a season professional ball under his belt and will still be starting the 2010 season in Erie. He has good speed, good defense in the outfield from what I’ve heard and good contact skills. If he gets back to drawing walks, batting from the left side, he could work his way back into the picture as a prospect. If you want that picture to be of him in the field, though, it’s probably going to have to be in the late innings. If he makes the show, I doubt it will be as a starter.

Steven Moya, DSL Tigers
18, 6’6”, 220, Bats: L

PA: 255
AVG: .252
OBP: .361
SLG: .372
XBH%: 25.5
K%: 22.7
BB%: 12.9
wOBA: n/a

Moya is quite a bit younger than most prospects I pay attention to. He’s just 18 and has spent only one season in the DSL. Then again, most 18-year old prospects playing in the Dominican aren’t built like NBA small forwards. Take that frame and add in the fact that he was included in the Tigers’ Instructional League, meaning he’s likely going to play in the States in 2010, and you have an intriguing prospect.

I can’t say enough times that numbers at the low levels don’t mean much, but I still like that he was an above average hitter in the DSL as a 17-year old playing his first pro season. I’m particularly surprised by the walk rate, given that he’s 6’6”, but that can probably be attributed to lack of control by DSL pitchers as much as his discipline. Then again, at least he wasn’t always swinging when the pitches weren’t strikes.

In the end, if I’m being honest, I’m simply a sucker for Tiger prospects who are young and interesting. I’m sorry, but a kid who’s this size, swings from the left side and whose skills are trusted enough for the Tigers to bring him to the States? That’s interesting. Incidentally, I put the over/under on the number of mainstream articles mentioning him and bringing up either Tony Clark or Daryl Strawberry at two. I would’ve said one, but then I guess you couldn’t bet the under.

Honorable mention: I have a hard time not lumping together Brent Wyatt, Josh Workman and Deik Scram. As I mentioned above, they’re all old for their level and while they bring some good skills to the ballpark, they're not really the kind that tend to get you noticed. Wyatt is 25 and spent last season in West Michigan, but drew 67 walks against 71 strikeouts, stole 23 bases in 32 attempts and would have turned in a good season with better luck on balls in play (.276 BABIP).

Workman, 24, was called up to Lakeland about the time Kyle Peter went down to injury, but held his own when given the chance (.297/.378/.380). That outpaced the FSL’s average hitter by quite a bit and drawing walks was a good part of his game. Being a left-handed hitter could help him, too, but he doesn’t really look like a left fielder at the plate and a promotion to Erie in 2010 is no given.

Finally, there’s Deik Scram. He came the closest to cracking the top three, but he’s 26 and hasn’t played above Erie. Add to that the fact that he’s struck out 248 times in his two seasons in Erie and I just have a hard time envisioning him putting up a decent batting average. His secondary skills can make up for some of that, but I doubt they’ll cover for him if he’s hitting .230 or .240. He has a left-handed bat working in his favor, but you may have noticed most of these other guys do, too. I do, however, get the feeling he’s a plus defender and his holding his own when given a chance in center would seem to support that.

The Tigers designated Casey Fien for assignment to make room for Johnny Damon. This isn’t all that surprising. Fien put up some good numbers in the minors, particularly his strikeout-to-walk numbers (66:15 in Toledo last year and nearly 5:1 in his minor league career), but as a fly ball pitcher became susceptible to the long ball in the upper levels. It seems plausible that could have affected his control once he was called up to Detroit, where he gave up two homers in just eleven innings of work.

Perhaps it was just that Fien is already 26 and the Tigers are loaded with relief prospects who have higher ceilings. Whatever the reason they view as expendable, I’ll be curious to see what happens in the time the Tigers have to either trade him or see if he passes waivers. I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody took a look at his fastball and minor league stats and decided to give him a chance to make one of their final spots in the pen.

The Tigers finally signed Johnny Damon to a one-year deal, further demonstrating cost-saving deals and decisions made this offseason probably weren’t as much about money as initially speculated. I like the signing since it was a one-year deal, but am a little taken back by the fact that Boras talked the Tigers into an $8 million contract. Did the Tigers have to pay a premium to bring him to Detroit rather than Atlanta or Chicago? Dombrowski must have looked at his team and Chicago’s with and without Damon and decided it was worth the extra money.

Money concerns aside, what does this deal do for the Tigers? I already spoke quite a bit about the roster implications for the rest of the team, but on a day-to-day basis what will the Tigers’ lineup look like? Here’s one idea:

CF Jackson (R)
LF Damon (L)
RF Ordonez (R)
1B Cabrera (R)
DH Guillen (S)
3B Inge (R)
C Laird (R)
2B Sizemore (R)
SS Everett (R)

Bench: 
C Avila/Diaz (L)
IF Santiago (S)
OF Raburn (R)
Extra outfielder/infielder (Dlugach/Kelly/Thomas/etc.)

We should know by now, though, that the Tigers under Leyland are not a team that has anything like a set lineup. They had 126 batting orders last year and their most common one was used only seven times. I would expect more of the same this year with injuries, days off and a desire to get bench players their at bats.

This answers the question of the lineup, but what do I think it will do for the Tigers? Damon will provide a regular baserunner for the heart of the lineup, as his .365 on-base percentage would have been third on the Tigers last year, with just Cabrera and Ordonez beating him. Those two weren't going to be in the first two spots of the lineup so adding Damon gives them extra chances to drive in runners. Even if Damon's OBP dips this year, I expect it will be better than anybody else they could have put at the top of the order before his signing.

It also provides the Tigers with a good left-handed bat who should be able to stay high in the lineup even when left-handed starters are going. We also shouldn’t forget he has a fair amount of power in that left-handed bat. Much is being made of the fact that 17 of his 24 home runs came in Yankee Stadium last year, but his road isolated power was still .165. That’s right at the league average and when you talk about the other half of his at bats, I think people are making a bit too much of the difference between Comerica and Yankee Stadium for left-handed hitters. There's a difference, sure, but we're not talking about going from a softball field to the Astrodome.

I think perhaps the most important impact is that it provides the Tigers with depth in terms of the quality of their lineup. Ryan Raburn is a fine player, but I think he’s more of an asset to the team as a good bat off the bench as opposed to a average to below average bat as a starting left fielder. In other words, adding Damon likely gives you an above average left fielder in terms of production and an above average bat off the bench. Prior to Damon, the Tigers likely would have had average production out of left and below average production from that first outfielder off the bench.

Now you may look at Raburn’s stats from last year and say he could be more than and average left fielder. You have to remember, though, that he had more than half his at bats come against lefties last year. If he were starting most games, that would come out to a more normal split where only a quarter of his at bats are coming against lefties. That would have a big effect on his production. It’s probably better for everyone if he stays in a role where his situation puts him at an advantage.

What about the effect of the signing on the Tigers’ defense? Honestly, I don’t know what adding Damon does there. If the Tigers were going to put Raburn in left most days, it’s probably close to a push defensively. Raburn has the better arm (by a lot) but Damon probably has comparable range and better instincts as an outfielder. If this move significantly reduces Carlos Guillen’s time in left field, I have to believe the impact on defense will be very much a positive. By any objective or subjective measures I've seen, Guillen's defense in left is awful.

There are also likely to be some intangible impacts from adding Damon. It seems possible to me his disciplined approach at the plate could rub off on some of the younger players. Maybe Austin Jackson sees him working counts and going six and seven pitches into an at bat and sees the benefit to the team. There could also be some impact at the gates with adding Damon. Even the most casual baseball fan knows who Johnny Damon is and having those recognizable players could keep some extra interest out of the fan’s whose interest wanders away from baseball. Granted, I think that impact is likely minimal but any effect that’s there is probably positive.

To wrap all this up in a very simple package, the impact of adding Damon is full of positives for the 2010 Tigers. Much will be made of giving him $8 million but on the free agent market that’s right around what an average left fielder can expect to make. The Tigers just got a left fielder who will probably be above average.

The Tigers’ shortstops remind me why I don’t particularly enjoy ranking prospects. You have players who have very high ceilings but are either very far from the majors or completely untested. Then you have players with high ceilings and poor results at the higher levels. Finally, you have players with good skills and good numbers but they are at a lower level with noticeable question marks in their game. Figuring out how to weigh performance and ceiling is something I've never really come to terms with and often requires more information than I have available.

Prospect watching blues aside, I’m adding a fourth prospect to the shortstop rankings and including more honorable mentions than I have with the other positions. Part of it is shortstop being an important position where teams are going to have some of their best players. Another part, thankfully, is the fact that the Tigers have some intriguing talent at the position and some guys worth watching in 2010. (Ages are as of 4/1/10)

Daniel Fields, 2009 Draftee
19, 6’2”, 200, Bats: Left

The Tigers paid Fields’ asking price to keep him from going to Michigan. It took a seven-figure bonus and reportedly an opportunity to let him try to stay at shortstop. There don’t seem to be a lot of people who think he can stay there, but with his reported athleticism and skills he would still be an asset at third or center field.

Baseball America has him as the system’s fastest baserunner and best athlete, and while I don’t know if that’s accurate I assume it’s a good sign for him. It’s especially encouraging considering he’s also considered to have very good power from a left-handed swing. The big question for Fields at this point is where is he going to be assigned? The Tigers will use the spring to get a feel for where he belongs and I’d assume a full season assignment to begin the season would mean they liked what they saw.

Audy Ciriaco, Lakeland/Toledo
22, 6’3”, 195, Bats: Right

PA: 470/26
AVG: .262/.160
OBP: .296/.192
SLG: .397/.160
XBH%: 28.4/0.0
K%: 18.9/15.4
BB%: 4.3/3.8
wOBA: .322/.167

Ciriaco has been viewed as a player with a lot of potential ever since the Tigers signed him out of the Dominican back in February of 2005. It was evident they thought a lot of him because in his first season with the organization they sent him to the GCL Tigers. He showed a lot of potential in that debut, but seemed to take a step backward the next season.

He was nonetheless promoted in 2007 to West Michigan, where in two seasons he hit .231/.259/.327. That and a prodigious rate of errors (65 in those two seasons) still didn’t sour the Tigers on the young shortstop. He was promoted to Lakeland last season and he responded by turning in his best season as a pro. The numbers above may not look impressive in the least, however he only turned 22 midseason and those numbers are actually a tick above average in the pitcher-friendly FSL.

Combine with that the fact that the Tigers added him to the 40-man roster to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft and you have an intriguing prospect heading in to 2010. My hesitation is the Tigers don’t have a wonderful track record when it comes to being higher on position players than the prospect watchers. Still, let’s say Ciriaco can take a promotion this year and continue to hit near the league average as a shortstop with good defensive potential. That would make him a valuable asset in the organization.

Gustavo Nunez, West Michigan/GCL Tigers
22, 5’10”, 148, Bats: Switch

PA: 514
AVG: .315/.190
OBP: .360/.261
SLG: .425/.333
XBH%: 21.2/25.0
K%: 12.1/20.8
BB%: 4.9/4.2
wOBA: .358/.324

Signed out of the Dominican in May of 2007, not long after his 19th birthday, Nunez spent just one season in the DSL before coming to Florida in 2008. He split his time between the GCL and Lakeland and the Tigers liked what they saw enough to make him the Whitecaps’ starting shortstop in 2009.

As you can see above, it was a success. He hit for average and made excellent use of what I assume is top notch speed. The Tigers liked him enough to invite him to spring training as a NRI and talked about him during the TigerFest in glowing terms. National prospect writers have inched him into their Tiger top ten prospect lists.

He’s definitely without his question marks, though. As you can see above, he’s very small at an age where it doesn’t seem likely he’s going to add a lot to that frame. That likely means the little power he has is going to come from well placed line drives that allow him to take extra bases. Without much power, he’s going to need to improve his approach at the plate as right now he’s a contact hitter who doesn’t take many free passes.

Without power or a willingness to take walks, he’s going to have to hit for very high averages to be productive. Throw in the fact that he also needs refinement on the basepaths (25 times caught stealing last season) and you could be looking at a player whose speed does more harm than good on offense. There’s still time for him to grow as a player, though, and he’s said to be a good defensive shortstop. Even if he turns out to be a slappy hitter with excellent speed, a lot of players have made long careers out of combining that with good D at shortstop.

Cale Iorg, Erie
24, 6’2”, 182, Bats: Right

PA: 532
AVG: .222
OBP: .274
SLG: .336
XBH%: 28.4
K%: 28.0
BB%: 6.0
wOBA: .277

A couple years ago, Iorg was in a situation similar to Daniel Fields. Sure, he was a couple years older but he was still a player who received a first round bonus with a lot of people around baseball saying the Tigers had overspent. The Tigers, though, confident in their assessment of his skills, threw him right into the mix at Lakeland. He certainly didn’t dominate (he hit .251/.329/.405, or a tad better than league average) but his production was acceptable considering he had elite potential on defense and was coming off two years without baseball.

The Tigers certainly didn’t pull back on their expectations. Not only did he get promoted to Erie, the offseason talk before the 2009 season painted him as the Tigers’ long-term solution at shortstop. He was going to be a major leaguer, and sooner than we expected, we were told by Dave Dombrowski.

Then 2009 happened. There just wasn’t much to grasp onto from his 2009 season. Batting average, plate discipline and power all seemed to take a step backward. His results in the Arizona Fall League weren’t much better. There now seems to be a widely held belief that he was rushed and whether that’s true or not, he faces a 2010 that could be crucial in determining his future.

Something that could end up worsening the situation for Iorg is the fact that things are lining up for him to be promoted to Toledo. That’s certainly not a given, but if it happened it would allow the Tigers to put Ciriaco in Erie and Nunez in Lakeland. The placement of those three shortstops will be one of the biggest questions to be answered in spring training. If Iorg gets placed in Toledo, it will be hard not to wonder whether it was because they believe he can handle the job or if it was to accommodate the other two shortstops.

Honorable mentions: The rest of these shortstops have very short track records, but may have promise as they rise through the ranks of the minors. Hernan Perez was a signing day pickup in 2007, when he was 16, and split his age 18 season between the GCL, West Michigan and Lakeland. I expect him to be in the mix for the starting shortstop job in Grand Rapids. Dixon Machado signed a year after Perez, also as a 16-year old, and was plugged in as the VSL Tigers’ starting shortstop. His slash line (.205/.310/.278) doesn’t jump out at you but he walked as much as he struck out and stole 27 bases in 33 attempts. He’s also 6’ tall and just 140 pounds, so it will be interesting to see if his frame matures, perhaps bringing extra pop with it.

Edwin Gomez was actually taken before Daniel Fields in the 2009 draft, in the fourth round. he struggled in the GCL, but it’s important to remember he didn’t turn 18 until their season was nearly over. He’s already 6’3” and 175 pounds, though, so he’s another one to watch as he develops. Javier Azcona is kind of the Dominican counterpart of Machado. He was 16 on signing day and was the starting shortstop for the DSL Tigers. His numbers at the plate (.249/.350/.398) catch your eye more than Machado, though, as he had 20 of 55 hits go for extra bases and drew 33 walks in 63 games.

Position Summary: The Tigers lack a blue chip, five star prospect in their system but as you can see they’re far from barren. I think they’re assembling a nice stable of shortstops and even if a couple of these guys have to move off the position, they’re amassing a lot of talent. It’s starting to feel like they’re going to have to catch a break at some point and at least one of these guys will figure things out.

Previous posts in this series: 
Third base prospects
Second base prospects
First base prospects 
Catcher prospects

Minor League Blog news: I got an email from Nick Underhill, one of the writers covering Erie for Tigstown.com, that he has started his own blog, http://nickunderhill.com. This is especially pertinent news alongside the topic of my post, since his most recent post talks about how he doesn't think Cale Iorg is ready for Toledo.

We move to third base, unfortunately. The good news is I'm completing this position with the help of the Tigers' 2010 Media Guide, available online. Woo hoo.

Francisco Martinez, GCL/Lakeland
19, 6’1”, 180, Bats: R

PA: 168/18
AVG: .222/.167
OBP: .256/.167
SLG: .320/.167
XBH%: 32.4/0.0
K%: 22.6/16.7
BB%: 3.0/0.0
wOBA: .288/.200

The Tigers’ most promising third base prospect coming into the 2009 season fell on his face a bit in his first season stateside. He didn’t hit for average or much power and struck out more than eight times as often as he walked overall. He did show some speed, stealing 12 bases in the equivalent of about a third of a season, but that’s not going to make up for the offensive numbers you see above.

We’ll just have to hope he makes some adjustments going into 2010, perhaps most importantly in his strike zone judgment. His placement atop the Tigers’ third base prospects - after that 2009 season - shows they desperately need one of their players at this position to pan out.

Wade Gaynor, Oneonta
21, 6’4”, 225, Bats: R

PA: 267
AVG: .192
OBP: .281
SLG: .282
XBH%: 31.1
K%: 19.5
BB%: 7.9
wOBA: .276

Gaynor could probably be chosen as the top prospect at this position on a lot of the same grounds as Martinez. He’s talented enough to be chosen in the third round of the 2009 draft, after all. However, he fell on his face in his first season just like Martinez and if you compare the two I have to believe Martinez could do better in Oneonta at 21 than what we just saw from Gaynor.

It’s important to remember, though, that we can no sooner bury these young prospects for missteps in small samples than we can coronate them for their successes. While we should have healthy skepticism of the Tigers when they are higher on a player than the rest of the league, Gaynor flashed good all-around skills when he was at Western Kentucky. I’d imagine he will get a shot in West Michigan this season unless Martinez should step into that job.

Bryan Pounds, West Michigan
24, 6’0”, 195, Bats: R

PA: 417
AVG: .284
OBP: .399
SLG: .402
XBH%: 33.0
K%: 20.9
BB%: 13.7
wOBA: .376

Pounds is something of a polar opposite to the first players listed. Where they are good talents with lousy numbers, he was taken in the 34th round of the 2008 draft but put up very good numbers for the Whitecaps last season. I know he’s 24, is likely an organizational soldier and probably doesn’t impress the scouts a whole lot. I also know that unless he keeps pounding line drives, he doesn’t have the speed to keep producing a BABIP of .375 and the inflated stats that come with it.

Still, looking through the system’s third basemen I simply couldn’t ignore one of the only players who had a good 2009. Hopefully, he’ll go into 2010 keeping a good approach at the plate and continuing to better his meager expectations.

Honorable mention: I have to mention Mike Bertram for pretty much the same reason I picked Pounds as the third best third base prospect. He had a good season in which he slugged over .500 splitting time between Lakeland and Erie. I’m not under any misconceptions about his prospects as a major leaguer, though. He’s 26 and has spent most of his time as a Tiger backing up Santo De Leon. Credit where credit is due, though. I know nothing about him admittedly, but the Tigers signed a 16-year old out of Venezuela named Jesus Ustariz last season. If he is the VSL Tigers' starting third baseman in 2010, you may want to take note.

Position Summary: Grim. I think that sums it up. Unless Martinez or Gaynor figure it out, it’s very likely the Tigers’ best third base prospect isn’t even playing the position right now. My guess is one of their shortstop prospects sliding over to third would probably become their prospect at the position instantly.

Prior articles in the series: 
Second base prospects
First base prospects
Catching prospects

There’s a lot of talk about the Tigers being one of the teams in on Johnny Damon. As well there should be. Scott Boras has a history of using the Tigers as a parachute for players without much of a market. The Tigers could use a left-handed, top of the order hitter.

The only unfortunate thing about such a deal being made would be the fact that Damon is a much better fit for the Tigers in the lineup than he is on the field. He hasn’t played a lot of center field lately and that means his place on the Tigers would likely be left field - not right field, due to his Tyrannosaurus Rex arm - and designated hitter.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because Carlos Guillen is also likely to only  be used at those same two positions. It’s also anticipated Ryan Raburn would on most days be playing whichever position Guillen isn’t. So if you have three players sharing two spots, what do you do? Most days, you sit one of them and that’s where things are going to get interesting.

Sure, the Tigers will be able to pop Raburn into right field when they want to give Maggs a rest. However, Clete Thomas is more likely to be the one to give Maggs his days off since Clete is a left-handed bat. Or is he? We’ll look at that later. The situation the Tigers are facing means nearly every day, the Tigers will need to rest either their new free agent, one of their most productive hitters last year, or their switch hitting veteran who’s making $13 million in 2010.

I think it’s safe to say if the Tigers sign Damon, he won’t be the one resting very often. He’s played at least 140 games in almost every season of his career. The only exception was the first season he saw the majors, when he split his time between KC and Omaha and that was fifteen years ago. He was also every bit as productive last season as Raburn in what was a breakout season for Raburn. The major difference is Damon’s production came in a full-time role.

If we’re penciling Damon in most days, that’s likely to mean Guillen will be the other player getting the lion’s share of time in either left or as the DH since he can be another left-handed bat. That leaves Raburn as a fill-in when Guillen needs a day off or is injured (nearly inevitable the last couple years). If that’s how things play out, there’s going to be a lot of people looking at Raburn and Guillen’s 2009 seasons and scratching their heads at the choice.

Of course, there is further impact on the roster. Raburn and Guillen are almost certainly going to be on the Tigers’ roster if Damon doesn’t sign with the Tigers. Adding Damon means somebody else won’t be coming north with the team. Who might that be?

Let’s take a quick look at a likely roster with Damon on board:

Catcher: Laird
First base: Cabrera
Second base: Sizemore
Third base: Inge
Shortstop: Everett
Left Field: Damon
Center Field: Jackson (or whomever wins coming out of spring training)
Right Field: Maggs

Bench: Backup catcher (Avila or Diaz), Santiago, Raburn, Guillen, Utility infielder (Kelly, Dlugach)

I suppose that second utility infielder spot could be used some other way, but it’s not hard to see the impact of having three players as limited defensively as Guillen, Raburn and Damon.

If they go the way I have shown above, they don’t really have a reserve outfielder who’s a defensive specialist. In fact, they probably don’t have a backup center fielder they’re very comfortable with. Of course, Leyland has explained before that’s okay because the backup is an hour’s drive away. Putting a face to this problem, there’s no room for Clete Thomas (or anybody else who doesn’t win the center field job). The upside to this is you can rest Maggs regularly and get Raburn's bat in the lineup on those days.

If they decide to go with somebody who can fill those roles (say, Clete Thomas), Ramon Santiago is your sole backup on the infield. That would put him on a time share with Everett again, a role that got him 65 games at shortstop last season. It would also put him as the backup at second and third, or two players coming back from offseason injuries. Not only is Sizemore coming off an injury, he's a rookie who's likely to be given days off when struggling. It seems possible this scenario could come close to putting Santiago in the full-time role the Tigers have tried to avoid.

Either of these scenarios prevents the Tigers from adding another power bat such as Ryan Strieby or a potentially dynamic player like Wilkin Ramirez or Casper Wells. To be honest, I don’t think that’s all that big a deal. None of those players are likely to be as productive as Damon. The interesting thing about that, though, is it seems to me having Damon, Guillen and Raburn on the squad is at least as limiting as having a player who can only DH. The last time the Tigers faced this problem, Gary Sheffield was the source. It would be interesting to see if they would solve this year's version in a similar way.

We move on to the keystone corner and the source of much fretting and teeth gnashing in the Tigers' lineup. I say relax, Tiger fans.

Scott Sizemore, Erie/Toledo
25, 6’0”, 185, Bats: R

PA: 269/330
AVG: .307/.308
OBP: .402/.378
SLG: .535/.473
XBH%: 42.9/34.4
K%: 17.1/14.8
BB%: 13.0/8.8
wOBA: .422/.390

When you consider his age, it’s also easy to see why the Tigers figured this was the year he should be given his shot. Some people are upset about giving up Polanco, but what would we have learned about Sizemore if he spent 2010 in the minors? He would have likely come close to duplicating the numbers above and he still would have entered 2011 as an “untested” rookie.

No, I think the time has clearly come to give Sizemore his shot in the bigs. He hits the ball hard, has extra base power, makes good contact and shows good recognition of the strike zone. There are some concerns about his defense, but aside from reports of occasional sloppiness, I have no reason to believe he’s going to be anything worse than average in the field. From having watched him myself and hearing from others what kind of ballplayer he is, I think Detroit fans will appreciate what he brings to Detroit very much.

Brandon Douglas, West Michigan
24, 6’0”, 185, Bats: R

PA: 329
AVG: .322
OBP: .384
SLG: .374
XBH%: 13.2
K%: 8.8
BB%: 7.8
wOBA: .361

Douglas is only about eight months younger than Sizemore and considering he played in West Michigan last year, that makes him a little bit of a surprising entry on this list. Surprising, maybe, but the guy can hit, run and considering he’s a converted shortstop, I imagine he can pick it at second. Proof of the first two? He was in the running for the Midwest League batting title before he lost over a third of the season to a groin injury. Hitting isn’t just batting average, though. He’s also shown very good strike zone knowledge since joining the pro ranks. As for his baserunning, the guy has stolen 26 bases in 29 attempts as a pro. That’s in about the equivalent of a full season.

Overall, in Douglas you have a guy who looks to have a mature approach at the plate. He’s a good baserunner with good speed, and scouting reports (and Sean Smith’s Total Zone) seem to like his defense at second. Throw in his age and the lack of a quality second base prospect standing in his way and I think Douglas is a prime candidate for a promotion to Erie in 2010. Call it a hunch, but I don’t see how it could hurt him or the SeaWolves too much and if he meets the challenge the Tigers have another legitimate middle infield prospect.

Alexander Nunez, GCL Tigers
19, 5’11”, 172, Bats: R

PA: 155
AVG: .308
OBP: .353
SLG: .531
XBH%: 38.6
K%: 20.0
BB%: 4.5
wOBA: .405

Five triples and seven attempted steals in about a quarter season’s worth of plate appearances tells me this kid is probably pretty quick. That’s intriguing when you consider he also cleared the outfield wall five times in that short time. There’s not a lot out there that’s been said about this Dominican second basemen, but if he’s able to turn in another season like what we just saw that should change quickly. Let's just hope whatever the Tigers plan on doing to improve plate discipline in their farmhands sinks into his skull.

Honorable mentions: Mike Hollimon isn’t really a prospect anymore and when he went down the Tigers were starting to play him at third base. This is kind of just a “hey, he’s still in the system” alert. Mentioning Chris Sedon is almost entirely a nod to the Tigers’ scouts, who saw skills that warranted a 10th round selection. I say that because his time in Oneonta last season was brutal, with very little to like in the way of his numbers. He did have a lousy BABIP, which is a little surprising given the number of ground balls he hit.

Position Summary: The Tigers certainly hope this position is squared away with Sizemore for at least the next four to six years. If he doesn’t work out this year, though, there isn’t much in the system to help out unless there’s a breakthrough and a position switch by one of the shortstops.

The terms of Verlander's deal were released. He will make $6.75 million in 2010, $12.75 million in 2011 and $20 million for the three years after that. The thing that jumped out at me about that was the 2010 figure. If you remember, the Tigers offered Verlander $6.9 million in arbitration and he's getting less than that.

I could be completely off base here - it could just be the Tigers looking for some salary relief - but I can't help but wonder if Verlander agreed to that so the Tigers could make a good push for one last bat in the lineup. Something like, "You save us a couple million this year and we'll try to use it to get you some extra runs and wins." I know one thing. It's certainly not going to do anything to put all those Johnny Damon stories to bed.

It is being reported the Tigers have reached an agreement with Justin Verlander, paying him $80 million for five years. Because Felix Hernandez recently signed a five year, $78 million deal with the Mariners the two are inevitably going to get compared. I presume that since Hernandez has been a better pitcher over their careers and is three years younger than Verlander, the Tigers will get cuffed about the head a bit for doing this deal. I don’t know that I’d take that route. Being an optimist, I’d prefer to congratulate the Tigers on signing Verlander to a fine deal and give the Mariners an even deeper bow for their deal with King Felix.

Why do I think this? Well, Verlander wanted $9.5 million for the 2010 season and the Tigers wanted to pay him $6.9 million. The Tigers never go to arbitration, so if we assumed the two sides would have settled at the midpoint Verlander was going to get about $8.2 million this year regardless of whether he signed an extension or not. That essentially makes this a four year, $72 million deal. I know $18 million a year sounds like a lot for a pitcher, especially in an organization that can look down its bench and see multi-year deal recipients, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman.

However, every win above replacement appears to be valued at about $3.5 million on the free agent market this year. I believe it was more like $4.5 million last year and about $4 million the year before that. I guess we probably intuitively knew it couldn’t inflate 10% every year, but I think this year may be the exception in terms of what teams pay per win and I'd expect it to climb again in the future.

So, for a conservative assessment of this contract, let’s assume over its life a win* is valued at an average of $4.5 million. If we go with that assumption, to make this deal worthwhile, Verlander has to earn 16 wins in those four seasons. We could be a little more accurate and say since the second year of the contract would have been his third year of arbitration (another year of him earning less than his market value) he needs to pick up 17 wins above replacement from 2011 through 2014.

*To be clear, when I talk about a win I mean a win above replacement, not the kind of win a pitcher gets for being the pitcher of record when the team gained the lead for good. Go here (bottom of the page) for a good explanation.

That’s 4.25 wins above replacement per season. For comparison’s sake, he was good for 18.8 wins over the last four years. A hefty portion of that came from last season, sure, but isn’t that a good thing? He clearly turned a corner last season, and that new level of performance should lead us to believe he’s better than the pitcher he was from 2006 to 2008 - when he averaged about 3.5 wins above replacement.

In other words, even if Verlander goes back to the level of performance we saw from 2006 to 2008 this will be a relatively small overpay. So while this is a long contract for a pitcher who has thrown as many innings and pitches as Verlander, I think it’s a good deal.

The only thing that makes me - and most Tiger fans, I’m sure - nervous is the idea of an injury. This contract isn’t such a good deal that the Tigers can afford to have an injury cost him a season or limit his effectiveness. That’s a risk they are taking, but they apparently prefer that risk to the one of alienating their fans further by letting him explore free agency.

Other Tiger Organization News

PECOTA projections are out

Baseball Prospectus has released their projection system, PECOTA. It's not completely finished but premium subscribers can see what PECOTA thinks of the Tigers' chances. The bad news is it has the Tigers as a 78-win team, but the good news is it has the Twins winning the division with 83 wins. If you assume the Twins are five wins better than the Tigers at the beginning of the season in terms of true talent level, it doesn't take a lot of breaks or surprises for the Tigers to make that up.

Since it's a premium service, I'm not going to get into too many specifics but I will say the system is more optimistic than the other projection systems when it comes to the Tigers' rookies, Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. If those two are as successful as PECOTA predicts, Tiger fans will be surprised at how little they lose on offense from those two compared to Granderson and Polanco. Since our focus here is usually on prospects, I will also say the system is surprisingly optimistic about what Ryan Strieby could do with the stick if given the opportunity.

MLB Top 50 prospects

MLB.com has released its Top 50 prospects. I've made my thoughts on prospect lists pretty clear over the years, but I know people like them. So, I'll share that there are two Tigers on the list, Jacob Turner (#42) and Austin Jackson (#38).

Casey Crosby chat at Baseball America

Baseball America celebrated the release of their annual prospect book by hosting a chat with various prospects. Casey Crosby was one of those prospects and I believe the questions he fielded are part of BA's free content. My favorite part of his chat was when his brother asked him what he planned to do to make sure the blisters problem he had last year didn't resurface. What I liked was that neither of the two let on that the inquiry came from his brother.