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Written by Matt Wallace
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Monday, 24 May 2010 23:27 |
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This is the third post in a series where we will look at the positions where the Tigers are performing at less than the league average. The first post was the introduction and the second one looked at the catching situation. Today, we’ll be looking at second base. My scouts tell me we’re good at first for a little while.
The Tigers’ second base situation has taken an interesting and peculiar turn this season. After the Tigers let Placido Polanco go because they trusted Scott Sizemore to handle the keystone corner, he didn’t exactly run with it. They knew he wouldn’t replace Polanco in the field, but he had a number of miscues defensively. His normally average range was likely limited further by his Arizona Fall League ankle injury. The Tigers expected to need patience with his defense and probably could have found it had he hit like they expected.
However, after thirty games played, he was hitting just .206/.297/.289. He was striking out a good deal more than he ever had in the minors, and while that alone could have been compensated by his impressive walk rate (11.3%), he simply wasn’t hitting. Too many of his fly balls didn’t leave the infield. Too many of his hits just weren’t falling despite nearly a quarter of the balls he put in play (23.9%) being line drives. When they did fall, too many of them were singles. On the bases, he didn’t have on attempted steal.
In other words, a player who was supposed to get by because he did everything pretty well wasn’t really doing anything well. He got the dreaded assessment that he was pressing. Now he’s being allowed to work on things down in Toledo.
The unfortunate thing is his path back to the majors won’t exactly be easy. The Tigers want to make sure they can insert Carlos Guillen’s bat back in the lineup once he’s returned from the disabled list. With Damon, Jackson and Ordonez all manning their outfield spots capably and Brennan Boesch peppering the outfield walls while serving as a fourth outfielder and designated hitter, the Tigers decided to get creative. They’re going to put him back in the infield where he wants to be, but at second base.
Putting aside my disappointment on behalf of Sizemore, I think it’s actually a pretty crafty move. He’s probably not going to provide defense much better than what they saw from Sizemore, but if he hits like he had been before pulling his hamstring (.311/.391/.443) he’ll still be a net asset at the position. One of the things I find most intriguing about the move is what looks like the Tigers deciding they can’t baby his health. It’s like they decided his aches, pains and pulls are going to find him and they may as well plug him in where they need him most. Where they need him most is in the batter’s box and they’re surprising us by the lengths they will go to get him there.
Of course, some people would be perfectly happy if neither Sizemore nor Guillen were manning second base every day. Some people wonder why Ramon Santiago will seemingly never be given a chance to win an everyday job at second base or shortstop. To be honest, I have no idea how to determine whether the Tigers are correct that his production would suffer in that role. The last time he filled an everyday role in the majors was 2003 and he’s clearly a better hitter than he was back then. What I can tell you, however, is in 1539 career plate appearances he’s hit .245/.316/.336 and he’s 30 years old. That speaks louder to me than the fact that he’s occasionally hit for power, occasionally shown a good approach at the plate and shown himself to be a solid infielder.
He’s never shown himself to be a good hitter at any level and the best you could reasonably expect from him would likely only be something you could live with. I can’t say I blame the Tigers for continuing their search. Now, if we were talking about shortstop I’d take this a little further but we can compare him to Adam Everett in the next installment of this series.
Other challengers for the second base job are Ryan Raburn and Danny Worth. I don’t think anybody who’s watched Raburn on the infield views him as anything more than a suitable sub for a game or two. His bat is an asset, though, and that’s why the Tigers get him starts wherever it’s somewhat bearable. Danny Worth has the opposite problem. He has a slick glove and has put it on display in his short time with the Tigers. Don’t be fooled by the fact that he’s hitting over .400 in his brief audition. They’ve all been singles and he’s yet to draw a walk. If given more time, his numbers would almost certainly droop back down closer to his career minor league numbers - .249/.314/.346. I view him as the likely roster casualty when Guillen is activated.
Once he’s back in Toledo, he’ll probably go back to shifting around the infield as the Hens make sure they get at bats for him, Sizemore, Brent Dlugach and Will Rhymes. Dlugach and Rhymes are too more players who could conceivably be explored as possibilities for second base duties either this year or in the future. I think either would be seriously stretched in a starting role, though. Rhymes’ production is too dependent on maintaining a good batting average. While he does a good job of controlling the strike zone, it comes more from being a good contact hitter than taking free passes.
Dlugach would probably have to give plus defense at shortstop in order to overcome his weaknesses at the plate. That’s a severe susceptibility to striking out. This year has been as bad as any for him, as he’s struck out in a third of his plate appearances and it’s led to a line of .260/.303/.367. In his career, he’s struck out 553 times in just over 2000 plate appearances. He’s hit well enough in the past, though, to where it’s easy to see him in a utility role.
Moving further down in the organization, I don’t think Justin Henry will ever hit enough to get a serious look. I’d be curious to hear what the Tigers’ thoughts were on Alden Carrithers and Brandon Douglas, though. Both are old for the levels where they’ve played, but both have shown they can hit. Carrithers is hitting .368/.466/.412 in Lakeland, but he’s 25 years old, hasn’t hit a home run since 2008 and is using a BABIP of .417 to carry that average. A major league career seems like a longshot to me, but I’d still like to hear the Tigers’ thoughts on his future. Douglas is a similar case to Carrithers, as he’s 24, hasn’t played above West Michigan and looks to have comparable skills. He just needs to get on the field, though. He’s yet to play an inning in 2010 and he can’t really afford to miss long chunks of playing time to injury. When he is healthy, I’ll look forward to seeing how the Tigers handle the second base jobs in Lakeland and Erie.
Further down, it’s much more difficult to project potential second basemen. If anybody lower in the system is a future second baseman at the big league level, they’re probably just as likely to be playing shortstop right now. Call me lazy if you like, but I’m not running down every middle infielder in the system who’s yet to take a grounder in the full season leagues. I will, however, point out Alexander Nunez as a player to watch at the position. He was the starting second baseman for the GCL Tigers last year at 19 and put up some numbers that could catch your eye.
Conclusion
The Tigers have a ton of options at the high levels of the system, but I remain unwavering in my belief that the best option for a starting second baseman in the short term is Sizemore. Guillen will hit when he’s healthy, but we’ve come to expect that status to last for only about two months at a time - when we’re lucky. If and when he goes down or injuries to other players open a spot elsewhere, I think the other options besides Sizemore just give them warm bodies. Where Sizemore should eventually give them adequate defense and potential for a plus bat, the other options require a lot of squinting, rationalizing and hoping they outplay their past.
In the long term, you can’t really say Douglas or Carrithers are longer term options than Sizemore. They’re all about the same age, after all. Therefore they really only come into play if Sizemore doesn’t pan out and they prove they can hit at the higher levels. Beyond those two, you have to look for young players like Nunez or guys currently at shortstop who might be available in three to five years. This may not seem like a rosy assessment of the position, but don’t lose faith in Sizemore too quickly. I think he’ll still prove to be a player the Tigers will be happy to have around. |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Monday, 24 May 2010 18:39 |
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Toledo Mud Hens
Overall Record: 24-19 Week of 5/16 - 5/22: 5-1
5/16: Indianapolis, Won, 6-5, WP: Robbie Weinhardt 5/17: Indianapolis, Won, 3-0, WP: Enrique Gonzalez 5/18: Durham, Won, 5-3, WP: Lauren Gagnier 5/19: Durham, Won, 5-2, WP: Ryan Ketchner, SV: Casey Fien 5/20: Durham, Won, 4-0, WP: Max Scherzer 5/21: Durham, Cancelled due to rain 5/22: @Syracuse, Lost, 2-3, LP: Scot Drucker
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Saturday, 22 May 2010 13:31 |
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The Tigers have made enough to moves lately to warrant an update, especially since some of them would be considered pretty important. Since we last did a transaction post, if we go chronologically the first move was Clete Thomas being moved to the disabled list on Monday. He still hasn’t been able to shake his knee problem and went to Colorado to have an MRI. When I think of how quickly Clete has become something of an afterthought with all the Tigers’ new young outfielders, I can’t help but wonder if this could be a pivotal year for him. Not all pivotal years are good, either. Let’s hope his struggles at the plate so far this season can be addressed by taking care of his knee.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 22 May 2010 15:51 |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Saturday, 22 May 2010 12:04 |
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This is the second post in a series where I will look at the positions where the Tigers are struggling with offensive production. By look at the position, I mean look at the players who are struggling in the majors as well as possible short and long term answers in the minor leagues.
Ask any Tiger fan about the catching position right now and you are pretty likely to get responses that include a groan, an eye roll or maybe some muttering about it being an "automatic out". Probably all three if Laird or Avila just finished another hitless night. Gerald Laird and Alex Avila are both languishing beneath the Mendoza line and after Laird's struggles last year, it's pretty safe to say Tiger fans are tired of getting so little production out of the position.
Struggles at the position are not a new development, either. The Tigers' catchers the last few years have included an aging, free-swinging, malcontent Pudge Rodriguez, a reluctant Brandon Inge, the barely there Matt Treanor and brief stints from minor leaguers like Dane Sardinha and Dusty Ryan. In fact, the scarcity of talent at the position has caused certain Tiger minor league bloggers to get up-in-arms over the release of players like Ryan and James Skelton. Both of whom were viewed skeptically by the Tiger front office and have gone elsewhere to show Dombrowski and company probably knew what they were talking about.
This season is a little more frustrating for a couple reasons, though. First, it was hoped that Gerald Laird would be bouncing back from an off year in 2009 that saw him bat just .225/.306/.320 while logging 135 games and 1090 innings behind the plate. Many Tiger fans, including myself, hoped that having the promising young Alex Avila on the roster would convince the Tigers to play Laird less and allow his bat to catch its breath. Well, he is playing far less than he did last year but he's hitting even worse to this point.
His line of .157/.250/.247 is, frankly, unacceptable. The Tigers can’t have a player starting sixty percent of their games hitting like a pitcher. Last season, his abysmal offensive numbers were mostly compensated by the fact that he was one of the best defensive catchers in the American League, throwing out 42% of attempted basestealers. This season, his ability to cut down runners seems to be bouncing back after a slow start (currently thrown out 8 of 25 runners) but it will never make up for the numbers shown above.
There’s good news and bad news with those numbers. The good is his BABIP of .194 is unlikely to stay that low. His career rate is .288 and last year it was .258. The bad news is even if hits were falling in at his career average, he’d only be hitting marginally better than last year. One of the problems Laird is facing is the fact that he’s missing more pitches (80.8% contact v. 84.6% in 2009) despite swinging less (40.4% of pitches v. 45.6% in 2009). This is particularly troublesome considering he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone and less inside it. That sounds like somebody who’s a bit lost at the plate, and if that’s the case I’m dubious as to whether BABIP normalizing is going to save him.
The Tigers faced this problem to an extent last year and fans hoped the solution might be Alex Avila. He put up some promising numbers in a short stint in the majors and was awarded the backup job coming out of spring training. There was some question as to what his assignment would be because some thought he should play a starter’s innings in Toledo, while others believed the Tigers needed his left-handed bat to compensate for Laird’s light hitting.
I don’t think anybody anticipated what he’s done in Detroit. We’re ecstatic about the fact that he’s cut down 6 of 14 (42.9%) of opponents running on him. It’s just a bit baffling that he’s only hitting .156/.270/.297. Part of his problem is similar to Laird’s. He’s only getting a BABIP of .190 despite a batted ball breakdown that isn’t too far from average. His batted ball distribution is actually similar to Laird’s in terms of line drive, grounder, fly ball, but where 15 percent of Laird’s fly balls are infield popups Avila has yet to hit one. The other part of Laird’s problem, however, is his strikeouts. He has 20 in 74 plate appearances and it’s sapping the value from his 12.2% walk rate. It looks like the Ks are owed mostly to what he does with pitches out of the strike zone. He chases them at about the league average rate, but only makes contact 52.4% of the time, compared with the league average of 65.4%. He does okay with pitches in the zone, swinging more often than average but with precisely average contact rates. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but that seems like a problem that could be dealt with through maturation and work.
As I mentioned before, this level of production from these two is unacceptable. It’ll be interesting to see how patient the Tigers are with it. They could wait around for the law of averages to bail them out a bit or they could look outside the organization to try to fix the problem. The Rockies don’t seem too anxious to play Chris Iannetta, for example, as he’s in Colorado Springs for some reason. But there are a lot of teams looking for catchers and not a lot of catchers to capably fill those spots. That means anybody the Tigers got would either be flawed in his own way or very costly to get. Probably both.
But wait a second. Isn’t the purpose of this series to look at what the Tigers have within the system? I was afraid somebody would point that out. Let’s just begin by revisiting the three catchers I had listed as the Tigers’ top prospects at the position. They were Avila, Jordan Newton and John Murrian. Newton was cut coming out of spring training and Murrian went down with a knee injury after starting the season in Lakeland hitting .170/.204/.277. Suffice it to say, neither of those two will be the cavalry we want charging in anytime soon.
So who’s left in Toledo and Erie? I wonder if the Tigers’ brass changes the subject when that question is raised.
“Mr. Dombrowski, who can you call up if Avila or Laird are unable to shake this slump?”
“You know what I heard today? They might film part of Transformers 3 in Michigan!”
Seriously, though, there’s not much in the way of help at the higher levels of the farm. The Mud Hens opened the season with Robinzon Diaz and Mike Rabelo. Diaz is hitting .213/.245/.255 in Toledo with a Randall Simonesque three walks in 99 plate appearances. Rabelo went down with knee problems, but was hitting just .143/.167/.286 before he did. Who’s replaced Rabelo in Toledo? Max St. Pierre. St. Pierre had been hitting pretty well in Erie, but the 30-year old is now 3 for 18 as he splits time with Diaz.
Since he’s the one they pulled up from Erie, you can probably guess there aren’t easy solutions down there either. The SeaWolves’ catching duties are falling to Jeff Kunkel and Andy Bouchie. Bouchie was in the independent Golden Baseball League in 2009 and Kunkel is a defensive specialist who’s 27 with a career line of .225/.281/.300. He’s hitting .236/.338/.382 this season, but he’s not a really a viable answer to the question we’re asking.
Now you know why I discussed trades for a short term solution at the catching position. What about long term solutions further down in the system?
“Transformers 3! In Michigan! Isn’t that cool?”
Frankly, Avila likely stands as the only catcher in the system with much of a big league future. There are a couple guys who I will be keeping a close eye on this season, but I’ve never seen any of their other current catching prospects on a top prospect list and Tigstown’s list goes 50 players deep. Just to be thorough, though, let’s take a look at who else is in the system.
In Lakeland, you have Angel Flores and Julio Rodriguez. Flores is certainly an organizational solider, filling in where needed since signing as a non-drafted free agent out of Puerto Rico in 2004. Rodriguez joined the team at the beginning of the month when Murrian went down. He was the starter for the GCL squad last year, but I’ve never heard his name come up as an up-and-comer.
In West Michigan, there’s Billy Alvino and Eric Roof. Alvino was a non-drafted free agent signing last season and Roof was taken in the 18th round of the draft and is hitting .198/.310/.244 as the Caps’ primary catcher. You may like that on-base percentage, but all the walks seem to come with a lot of strikeouts (30 in about 100 PA).
The rest of the system's catching depth is comprised of young Latino catchers (and one Australian) who are either in the DSL, the VSL or extended spring training. I’ve heard very little, if anything, about most of them but if I had to pick one to watch, I’d go back to the guy I mentioned when I was looking at the top catching prospects during the offseason - Gabriel Purroy. He had a good season in the VSL last year, his first as a pro, and is now conspicuously absent from that team’s roster. That leads me to believe he's been brought to the states at 18. Combine those facts with his being signed near the International signing day in 2008, and he at least has the profile of a prospect. He’ll probably need to fill out to be taken seriously as a catching prospect, though. He’s listed at 5’9” and 160 pounds. Please don’t put us through the small catcher arguments again, Gabe. Perhaps you could work out a deal with a Five Guys in Florida.
Conclusion
I regret having to paint such a grim picture of the catching situation, but there it is and if you don’t believe in Avila it’s pretty grim. Fortunately, I have some faith in the young catcher out of the University of Alabama and hope he’ll allow the Tigers to focus on a relatively unimportant backup catcher this offseason. I know crossing your fingers and hoping your current guys get better may not seem like a fantastic strategy, but I think it’s a sound one for now and I’m not sure what other choices the Tigers have. Anybody know if Chris Iannetta's on Twitter? I could start letting him know how great a baseball town Detroit is. |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Friday, 21 May 2010 20:05 |
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It's always good to know your team's strengths and weaknesses. I watch the Tigers as much as I can and have a pretty good idea in my head of who I think is good at what. When I see the Tigers' lineups or defensive assignments, I either applaud or groan with confidence. However, I'm not one to check the team's stats every day. I try to trust what I believe to be guys' true talent rather than how they've done in the recent past. I think I usually have a decent feel for who's hot and who's not, but our minds can play tricks on us. It sometimes doesn't process all we've seen very well, and this can lead to some surprises when I finally do sit down to look at the numbers.
Curtis Granderson was always a pretty good example of this for me. I never made any bones about saying how much I liked Granderson as a player, but there would be stretches where I'd watch him and it seemed like strikeouts were piling up or there were just a few too many grounders to second. Out of curiosity, I'd look up his recent performance and find out he was in the middle of a 3 for 32 slump or something. "Good lord, I didn't realize he had been that bad!" It goes the other way, too. There will be a player who's getting playing time against my wishes and he'll drop a soft line drive into left and right about the time I'm thinking he seems to be piling up the hits, the TV will flash that he's hitting .450 over the past couple weeks. "I see you, Johnny Grubb!*"
*This is a joke of layers. First, it's an imitation of Rod Allen's common call when a player is hot and does something great. Second, it's an homage to the former Tiger who - at least in my mind - seemed to get on remarkable hot streaks for a couple weeks at a time. This aside itself is an homage to my favorite sportswriter, Joe Posnanski, who will do what he calls Pozterisks. These are parenthetical threads within a thread that are sometimes several hundred words themselves. If you don't already read Posnanski, you can thank me later for introducing him to you. He's a prodigious and fantastic writer.
Well, today I sat down to try to balance the ledger in terms of my mental assessment of players and where they stood according to the numbers, focusing on the position players. After I finished doing that (wow, Inge has been terrible since hitting three homers on April 26-28 - .172/.222/.250) I was curious as to where everybody stood compared to league average. To figure this out, I took the league average numbers at each position from Baseball Prospectus's stats page. Then I went over to Fangraphs and looked at the production the Tigers were getting at each position. There were fewer surprises here, but let's look at what we have so far:
Catcher, Lg Avg: .250/.324/.388 Tigers: .164/.263/.281
First Base, Lg Avg: .251/.346/.440 Tigers: .340/.428/.603
Second Base, Lg Avg: .253/.327/.377 Tigers: .213/.316/.305
Third Base, Lg Avg: .259/.317/.413 Tigers: .219/.277/.388
Shortstop, Lg Avg: .254/.314/.353 Tigers: .234/.293/.291
Left Field, Lg Avg: .264/.331/.421 Tigers: .318/.390/.497
Center Field, Lg Avg: .264/.329/.410 Tigers: .331/.387/.438
Right Field, Lg Avg: .282/.363/.442 Tigers: .303/.375/.455
Designated Hitter, Lg Avg: .243/.322/.404 Tigers: .273/.357/.435
Most of the surprises for me looking at this chart were in the league average numbers. I was surprised how close the center fielders have come to left fielders in terms of production. I was surprised catchers are hitting better than second basemen (thank you, Joe Mauer and Chone Figgins). I think I was most surprised, however, at how terrible designated hitters have been. We saw over the offseason that teams weren't putting a whole lot of value on the DH types. I'd have to take a closer look to see if the DH numbers vindicate their assessment of those players or suggest teams should put a little more effort in filling that spot on the team.
Getting back to the Tigers, I am going to use this comparison as a means of tying the Tigers' performance to this point back to the minor leagues and this site's usual focus. What does the farm have to offer at the positions where the Tigers are lacking in production? Those are obviously catcher, second base, third base and shortstop. At each position, I'll look at who's responsible for the lagging numbers, whether they're making up for it on defense and what the farm might have to offer in terms of short term and long term solutions. |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Wednesday, 19 May 2010 00:24 |
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When you like the Tigers as much as I do, enough to write a blog about them for the fifth year, people find out. People find out and they commonly go with the easy conversation topic when they see you. “How ‘bout them Tigers?” That’s fine by me. What’s funny to me, though, is that while they will ask me what I think about this player or that move, they are generally just looking for me to agree with what they think.
I don’t always agree, and I can sometimes cite a study I read or a statistic I remember to back up my opinion. Honestly, it rarely matters. There is a person at my work who never wavered - and will never waver - from his belief that Inge needs to cut down his swing, that Sean Casey was a good clutch hitter and that Leyland needs to yank the starters faster when they get in trouble. I gave my opinions, my thoughts on the various situations and sometimes my refutations of these or similar ideas. Still, that player’s name would come up and every time out came that idea.
As you know, these ideas can turn into common knowledge over time. Baseball is almost built on these kinds of ideas. Hell, didn’t Bill James make a career out of tearing this stuff down? Most of the time they are harmless enough. People believe them and trying to swim upstream against the flow generally requires revealing your inner baseball nerd.
You have to be choose your spots wisely when you’re going to do that. I mean, you have to warn the person. Then you have to ask them if they’re sure they want to hear the real reason for whatever you’re about to lie down before them. It’s actually not a bad idea to get them to sign a waiver stating that they are not allowed to disown you or decrease the level of your relationship as a response to the diatribe you are about to unleash. Even after all this, I don’t recommend pulling the curtain all the way back.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 22 May 2010 12:47 |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Monday, 17 May 2010 06:48 |
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Toledo Mud Hens Overall Record: 19-18 Week of 5/9 - 5/15: 3-4
5/9: @Norfolk, Lost, 1-4, LP: Ryan Ketchner 5/10: @Durham, Won, 6-2 , WP: Phil Dumatrait 5/11: @Durham, Won, 5-4, WP: Armando Galarraga, SV: Jay Sborz 5/12: @Durham, Lost, 2-5, LP: Enrique Gonzalez 5/13: @Durham, Lost, 1-6, LP: L.J. Gagnier 5/14: Indianapolis, Lost, 1-8, LP: Ryan Ketchner 5/15: Indianapolis, Won, 7-3, WP: Phil Dumatrait
Runs scored: 23 Runs allowed: 32
The Hens suffered from a feast for famine offense that left the team hungry more often than satisfied. The good news for the Hens is in the short term, they seem likely to get a lot of offense from their visitors from Detroit, Scott Sizemore and Ryan Raburn. That should prove a big help because while the pitchers lead the league in ERA, the hitters are lagging behind.
Of course, if their pitching is going to keep that pace they may need better efforts from their starters. The group went just 38.2 innings in their seven starts and allowed a combined 4.89 ERA. They were helped out quite a bit by a solid bullpen, though. That group threw 21.1 innings and gave up just seven runs, walking six and striking out 18. It’s interesting that despite that strong performance from the pen, the group didn’t have any decisions.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 22 May 2010 12:47 |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Sunday, 16 May 2010 02:16 |
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The Tigers announced a few shockers after their stirring win on Saturday. Max Scherzer and Scott Sizemore are headed for Toledo, while Armando Galarraga and Danny Worth will pass them on I-75 as they make the trip up to Detroit. Perhaps the most surprising development, though, is the announcement that Carlos Guillen will (eventually) return from the disabled list to be the Tigers’ second baseman.
I know that seems like a lot to comment on, but I don’t really have a lot to say about the moves. Scherzer and Sizemore have been pretty bad the last couple weeks. Scherzer’s velocity is down and he seems to have struggled with both his command and control in these recent outings where he’s been drubbed. Sizemore is in a pretty bad slump, including an 0 for 14 stretch that led to Leyland pinch-hitting for him with Ramon Santiago. Hopefully, the lower stress situation of Toledo and the International League will allow both players to figure things out what’s been ailing them.
If those two are able to get right, I don’t expect their temporary replacements to make the necessary roster moves all that difficult. Galarraga started the season out well, but has been hittable recently, giving up 21 hits and 9 walks in his last 17 innings (spanning three starts). For now, the Tigers should just hope he gives them six innings on Sunday so they can rest a bullpen that’s been taxed again the last couple days.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 22 May 2010 12:48 |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Thursday, 13 May 2010 19:07 |
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Recent roster moves at the major league level necessitated some moves down on the farm. The activity isn’t limited, however, to just filling in for Alfredo Figaro. Mike Rabelo hurt his knee and his immediate replacement was Angel Flores. He’s a bit over his head at the Triple A level, however, so the Tigers seem to have opted for somebody who will be a little more comfortable in Toledo, Max St. Pierre. Flores won’t just be going down to Erie, either. Andy Bouchie is being called up from Lakeland to fill the SeaWolves’ other catching spot and Flores will head back down to Lakeland.
In the linked article, Mark Anderson opines the shifting may indicate Rabelo will be out for a while. With the Hens going with Flores and then shifting this way, it seems like it will be longer than they originally expected. I’d usually be a bit dismissive of what looks like the shifting around of minor league backups, but St. Pierre has been hitting well for the SeaWolves. Considering the production the Hens had been getting from Robinzon Diaz and Mike Rabelo (i.e. awful), he could easily give them the best production from behind the plate they’ve had all season.
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Last Updated on Saturday, 22 May 2010 12:48 |
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Written by Matt Wallace
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Tuesday, 11 May 2010 16:19 |
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You may be aware that Joel Zumaya walked his first (two) batter(s) of the season in Monday's game against the Yankees. Or you may be surprised to hear it. Judging from the groaning about his lack of control in the area where I was sitting, there are a lot of people who would be. Regardless of whether you knew of the control he's enjoyed in 2010, you will probably not be surprised to know that the 18.2 innings he pitched without a walk to start this season is the longest such stretch of his career. You would probably be surprised to know, however, that a lack of walks isn't the only notable thing about that stretch.
When I saw the numbers Zumaya put up in those first 18.2 innings of work, I couldn't help but wonder if it was also the BEST stretch he had put together as a major league pitcher. After going over to Baseball-reference.com and going through their Game Logs, I'm convinced it was. Mind you, I didn't just eyeball the game logs and make this decision. I went through every 18-inning stretch (or thereabouts) of his career and it's not even close. Sure, there were times where he may have posted comparable strikeout rates, better hit rates or a similar ERA or OPS against. But if you look over the entire package, I'm convinced Zumaya has never been better than what we saw prior to Monday's game.
Let's review:
12 G, 18.1 IP, 17 H (3 XBH), 0 HR, 4 R, 0 BB, 0 HBP, 23 K, 1.47 ERA.
Those are incredible numbers. Even when Zumaya was thrilling us by shutting down opposing lineups in high leverage situations in 2006, he was never that good. Never. The difference hasn't only been the walks either. He hasn't given up any home runs and just 3 of the 17 hits he's allowed have gone for extra bases. All that while putting up a strikeout rate that's even better than his 2006 season. That level of dominance has allowed him to remain incredibly effective despite a lofty .382 BABIP.
In addition to the quality of the numbers, I was a little surprised by the average number of innings he's seen per outing as well. When I was putting together all the various blocks of 18 innings throughout his career, it usually took about 15 games. Leyland has never been afraid to put him out there for a second inning but he used to have a lot more outings where he was only used to get an out or two. He's had three outings this year of less than an inning, but he's also only had one outing that was exactly one inning. All the rest have been five or six outs.
Why are the Tigers using him like that? Well, the efficiency he's enjoying from avoiding walks is a big part of it I'm sure. Nobody is giving the Tigers better innings than Zumaya, so it's natural that they would get as many outs as they can as long as they're comfortable with his pitch count. They're not going crazy, though. Nobody knows better than Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski how much better the bullpen works when they have a happy, healthy and effective Zoom Zoom. That brings us to the other contributing factor in the average length of his outings.
He doesn't throw on consecutive days. He's not done it one time this year and I wouldn't be surprised in the least if that's one of the things the Tigers are doing to try to keep him healthy. If it is, the longer length of his outings makes a lot of sense. Pulling Zumaya in from the bullpen means your best arm won't be available the next day. If you know that already, why not maximize those quality innings when you do have him? If he's giving you two innings and you know Valverde is out there for the ninth, that leaves just six innings for your starter and the rest of the bullpen. Even when your starter only gives you five innings or less (something we're all to familiar with), you can use platoon advantages and your situational pitchers to cover the inning or two that are left over.
The problem the Tigers are facing is it's too common that two or three of their starters won't make it past five innings in one turn through the rotation. That leaves them needing to cover too many innings without their best relievers. Zumaya because he's not available and Valverde because they reserve him for closer games or save situations. There's a cascade effect there, too. It causes them to press their other relievers into longer outings or put them out there in less than ideal situations. For example, I'm sure they'd prefer to make better use of Ni and Coke's effectiveness versus lefties but all the innings expected from the bullpen means those guys sometimes have to pitch an inning or two, regardless of the opposing lineup's makeup. They've obviously been able to survive so far. Let's just hope Zumaya's struggles against the Yankees Monday aren't a sign of the eventual cost of this early usage pattern.
I'm straying from the original point, though, and that is to applaud Zumaya for a fantastic first month of 2010. We've spent the last couple or three years waiting for his next injury and while we may still be doing that, it's fun to be rewarded for our patience. |
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