As you are probably aware, the Super Regionals are going on right now in college baseball. I don’t follow the college game too closely, but my understanding is these are eight best of three playoffs that determine the teams that go to what is actually called the College World Series. I’ve always mistakenly called the whole postseason the College World Series, and if you were right there with me, now you know.

Anyway, I counted ten players who were drafted by the Tigers who are still playing. It should be pointed out these players are by no means locks to sign with the Tigers. However, this is probably the last chance you’ll get to see most of these players on television for a long time, regardless. So, if you want to see Chance Ruffin, Drew Smyly or Corey Jones first hand before they disappear into the Tiger farm for the next two or three years, now is your chance.

To help you get that chance, I thought I’d lay out the schedule this weekend for the teams with potential Tigers playing.

Texas

Chance Ruffin (RHRP, 1st supp), Cole Green (RHSP, 4th)

Friday, lost 3-1
Saturday at 1 pm, ESPN
Sunday at 4 pm (if necessary), ESPN

Chance Ruffin is the closer, and since the Longhorns lost Friday, he didn’t get into the game. If you happen across ESPN (in HD!) and notice the Texas game is in the later innings, you might want to hang around and see if Ruffin gets in. Don’t expect to see Green pitch unless the Longhorns advance. He took the loss in Game 1, going 5.2 innings, giving up five hits, three runs and three walks while striking out four. A game like that, I think he just saved the Tigers a few hundred K. Just kidding.

TCU

Bryan Holaday (C, 6th)

TCU, won 3-1
Saturday at 1pm, ESPN
Sunday at 4 pm(if necessary), ESPN

Holaday was on the winning team in the TCU v. Texas matchup. He was part of the battery as the Horned Frogs’ Matt Purke (Rangers’ 1st round pick last year) was dominant. I didn’t get to see Holaday hit, but he was 1 for 3 with a single, a walk and a run. Defensively, he gave up a couple of steals but showed off a good arm on a bunt play that required him to pounce on the ball and make a perfect throw to first. I was watching long enough to hear the announcer say somebody (didn’t catch a name) told him Holaday was the best defensive college catcher they had ever seen. That sounds promising, right?

Cal State Fullerton

Corey Jones (2b, 7th), Carlos Lopez (DH/1b, 37th)

Friday at 10:30, ESPN2 (as I type)
Saturday at 7 pm, ESPN 2
Sunday at 10 pm (if necessary), ESPN2

As I said above, Fullerton is playing as I type and Jones is batting third and playing second while Lopez is the designated hitter. They’re going to have a tough time most likely, because UCLA is throwing another first round pick in 2009, Gerrit Cole.

Arkansas

Drew Smyly (LHSP, 2nd), Collin Kuhn (OF, 15th), Jordan Pratt (RHRP, 16th)

Saturday at 9 pm, ESPNU
Sunday at 10 pm, ESPN2
Monday at 7 pm (if necessary), ESPN2

The Tigers took more Razorbacks than anything, but Arkansas has a tough draw as Arizona State is the national number one seed.  I’m fairly certain Smyly will be starting one of the first two games and Kuhn led the team in games, so you’ll get to see him as well if you tune in. Pratt, however, is a relief pitcher and not the closer so you may have to get lucky to catch him throwing an inning or two.

Alabama

Tyler White (RHRP, 20th), Clay Jones (1b, 32nd)

Saturday at 6pm, ESPNU
Sunday at 7pm, ESPN2
Monday at 1 or 7 pm (if necessary), ESPN2

Jones played and started every game as the team’s first baseman and best power hitter, so it’s a safe bet you can see him hit if you take the time to watch the Crimson Tide take on the Clemson Tigers. Oh, the irony. White is one of the team’s relievers and he was hittable so while us Detroit Tiger fans would like to see him pitch, his being in the game may not be a good sign for the Tide.

Conclusion: So there you go. If you find yourself sitting around this weekend and realize you wouldn't mind watching some baseball (other than the Tigers), go ahead and do some amateur scouting on some of these guys. Just remember before you get too excited about these guys' skills, the bats are aluminum and the hitters can lack both selectivity and the skillset of pro hitters. If you do take time away from the World Cup and the Tigers in order to watch some college ball, feel free to use this post's comments to report what there was to see. Now, if you'll excuse me I'm going to go watch Cal State Fullerton. Have a good weekend.

I’ve learned in the past trying to cover the draft in a post or two turns those posts into gigantic, runaway posts thousands of words long. So after tackling Castellanos by himself the other day - in a mere 1,200 words or so - I figured in the second post I’d just tackle the Tigers’ next five picks.

1st (supplemental), Chance Ruffin, RHP, University of Texas VIDEO (Slot bonus: ~$725K)

Ruffin is the son of former big leaguer, Bruce Ruffin, and that always seems to play well for prospects. I get that, really. They’re probably familiar with a major league training regimen, the lifestyle, what it takes to succeed, et cetera. But let’s be honest. It’s not like you start 0-1 on batters because of it or anything. You have to bring big league stuff and Ruffin looks like he can do that. Depending on who you listen to, his best pitch is either a slider that’s usually within an mph or two of 80 or a fastball that sits at 90-93 mph with good movement. He can hump it up to 95 if he feels the need and according to Baseball America, uses an average curveball to try to neutralize lefties.

That sounds like pretty good stuff, but the common element praised in the reports I read is his aggressiveness and demeanor on the mound. He was a starter early in his college career and made the move to closer this year when the team lost Tiger draft pick, Austin Wood. That could be part of the reason he’s developed three pitches. Anyway, the stuff and approach rolled into one package has made him one of the most dominant closers in the nation this year. He held opponents to 39 hits in 61.2 innings, striking out 96 batters against just 18 walks. That sounds like great control, but he did plunk seven more batters and MLB.com’s report says he relies too much on hitters going out of the strike zone.

If you endeavor to catch him in the College World Series, that may be something to keep an eye on. I'd expect that once Texas is out of the CWS and Ruffin signs, he will fit the mold of a relief prospect the Tigers start off in Lakeland.

2nd, Drew Smyly, LHP, University of Arkansas VIDEO (Slot: ~$525K)

The Tigers seemed to step out of their comfort zone a little bit with this lefty Razorback. At 6’3”, he’s the tall pitcher they like, but they have usually gone where the radar gun took them in the past and that doesn’t seem to be the main thing about Smyly. He was impressive as Arkansas’ best starter with a 2.56 ERA, 78 hits allowed in 98.1 innings, and 108 strikeouts to 33 walks but it wasn’t a blazing fastball that got it done. Baseball America loves his pitching IQ, with Jim Callis in his draft chat saying he thought Smyly was one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in the draft.

Again, though, the stuff has to be there as well. His fastball isn't overpowering, but he can get it up to 93 mph and that's certainly enough from the left side. It sounds as if what he does with the pitch - locating, alternating speed - is the secret, though. That and the fact that he can also mix in a cutter, a curve and a changeup seemed to be the source of him being very effective for Arkansas.

Smyly is a draft eligible sophomore, so I suppose signing isn't a given but the Tigers don't let players taken this high slip away. He's probably unlikely to go much higher than this in the future and he's well aware injuries happen (he red-shirted). Once he signs, he seems like a good bet to start for West Michigan due to the reports of his refined approach as a pitcher.

3rd, 100, Robbie Brantly, C, UC-Riverside VIDEO (Slot: ~$350K)

Like Smyly, Brantly is a draft eligible sophomore and he falls in line with a common strategy of the Tigers. They like guys who perform well in the wood bat, college summer leagues and Brantly was a stud in the Northwoods League. His .346/.411/.516 line as a catcher was good enough for them to name him that league's top prospect last summer.

He continued to hit for average with good discipline when he returned to Riverside, but power doesn't seem to be a particularly big part of his game. If he continues to walk anywhere near as often as he strikes out and spray the ball around, the Tigers will live with that. They will also like it if he lives up to the review of his defensive game provided by BA. I would say they rave about his defense, and if that holds we all know that could allow him to move quickly through the system.

4th, Cole Green, RHP, University of Texas VIDEO (Slot: ~$225K)

The Tigers looked to the Longhorns again, and I don't know what's going on but it sounds like they went with another guy who is more of a pitcher than a thrower. I'm kind of kidding with the incredulity, but this does seem to be a bit of a different approach for the Tigers. He is on the smallish side for a starter (6'0", 210 lbs) and is a ground ball pitcher who gets those results with a high 80s, low 90s sinker. He also works in a changeup and a slider, and throws strikes because he only walked 24 in 106 innings. In that time, he struck out 71 and gave up 83 hits.

His future role is uncertain, but as always I hope the Tigers let him run his course as a starter. After all, he doesn't seem like the kind of pitcher who's going to change his game and effectiveness by moving to a relief role. His pitchability seems like it could land him in West Michigan, but Connecticut is probably the likelier assignment.

I would like to add one more thing. I looked at Green's video, and I'm not a mechanics guy but he certainly seems to be upright at the end of his delivery, doesn't he? I don't know if that's a problem or what it deprives him of compared to reaching more toward the ground. I seem to remember reading about pitchers needing a big follow-through to take the stress of pitching off their arm. Okay, I know there's too many people on the internet who seem like they're pretending to know this stuff already, so I'll get back to looking at picks.

5th, Alex Burgos, LHP, State JC of Florida (Slot: ~$160K)

Okay, seriously, is Chadd just messing with us? Burgos is 5'11", 180 pounds and pumps strikes with a fastball in the high 80s. He's known as a polished pitcher and reportedly was another player who benefited from his work in the Northwoods League. In addition to the fastball, he makes good use of his secondary pitches. Reports of what pitches those are precisely are a little conflicting. BA has him throwing a cutter and a curve.

Thoughts:

After making the big splash with Castellanos, the Tigers seem to be making an effort to crank up the system's baseball IQ. These seems to be a refined group of college players who may not blow scouts away but know what they're doing on the mound or on the field. The next post is likely to cover more like ten or twenty picks since there's generally less to say about the players taken later in the draft.

More draft stuff is on the way, obviously, but you may have noticed I'm due for updating the roster moves over the last week or so. You may also have noticed the lack of a weekly recap this week. I hope you're able to get used to the latter, because they won't be returning. Frankly, I dreaded doing them every weekend and I'm finding that my enjoyment of the blog increases as I trim away doing the things I loathe. Go figure. Anyway, onward with roster moves, which come with a big thanks to Tigstown's Transaction Blog.

Organization-wide

The Tigers parted ways with Glenn Ezell as the player development director. The press releases were pretty boiler-plate and the timing was obviously puzzling. Whatever the reasoning behind the move, it seems clear to me both sides seemed ready to move on.

Toledo

The Mud Hens picked up Billy Bucker when the Tigers received him in the Dontrelle Willis trade. He's been good to passable at the Triple A level the last couple years, but was drilled in his first start with the Hens. I'm curious to see who - if anyone - he'll replace in the rotation, but my guess would be Ryan Ketchner. We should find out in the next couple days.

The Tigers bumped Ben Guez back down to Lakeland when Jeff Larish returned from the disabled list. Guez's numbers weren't bad when he was with the Hens, but 23 games and 66 at bats shows you he wasn't really in a full-time role. Getting (a healthy) Larish back should provide some pop that has been a bit lacking in that category this season (8th in runs, exactly league average in ISO).

There was more tweaking of the Mud Hen roster when Max St. Pierre went down with a broken finger. With St. Pierre going on the disabled list, Jeff Kunkel was called up to share the catching duties. If you're counting, the Hens have had Mike Rabelo, Robinzon Diaz, Angel Flores, Max St. Pierre and now Jeff Kunkel on their roster as catchers so far this season. Any wonder why the Tigers have drafted catchers left and right in this year's draft?

The Hens lost an infielder as well, but this one wasn't to injury. Danny Worth was called back up to Detroit when the Tigers designated Adam Everett for assignment. The Hens can get by without him, putting Dlugach at short, Sizemore at second and Rhymes or Larish at third. It seems like a roster move could be done to help out a bit, but Max Leon can serve as a backup and they don't exactly have anybody in Erie beating a path to a promotion.

The final move to get us caught up with the Hens' dynamic roster is the swapping of Deik Scram for Wilkin Ramirez. It has to be frustrating for Scram to be back in Erie, but it's probably frustrating for the Tigers that he was hitting just .208/.319/.313 for the Hens. With Clete Thomas out for the season after surgery on his knee, he should be able to continue getting at bats with no problem. I don't know how his defense in center is coming along, but I'd bet him in center and Strieby in left will get pitchers' hearts fluttering on fly balls to two-thirds of the outfield.

Erie

Angel Flores continues to serve as the Tigers' designated backup, as he was reassigned to Erie from Lakeland when St. Pierre went down.

The Wolves really didn't have a whole lot going on with their roster, but their outfield did get a bit of an overhaul. As mentioned above, they picked up Deik Scram and lost Wilkin Ramirez. The Tigers also signed free agent outfielder, Ben Johnson. I assume he was added as a reserve, but with four outfielders on the roster it kind of seems like somebody could be getting the boot. If that's the case, it'd pretty much have to be either Josh Burrus or Chris White.

Lakeland

Josh Workman returned from the disabled list, where he had been since May 17. That Lakeland roster is getting a bit crowded isn't it? In the outfield, there's Workman, Daniel Fields, Ben Guez, Brent Wyatt and Kody Kaiser. They don't really seem to have enough at bats for all those guys and Alden Carrithers and Brandon Douglas - who returned from the disabled list. It's especially difficult on days when they want Billy Nowlin at DH. Well, they did alleviate what would have been a bigger traffic jam by sending Chao-Ting Tang back down to extended spring training. They also made room for Brandon Douglas by doing the same with Carmelo Jaime.

Lakeland didn't escape the catching shuffle either. They lost Flores to Erie, but gained Luis Sanz. If you're wondering, there are two Luis Sanzes in the system and this one is a 19-year-old catcher from Venezuela.

West Michigan

Their roster has been relatively static since the big shakeup, but they did add Ronnie Bourquin. He had been suspended for the season's first 50 games for violating the MLB drug policy. I guess we just have to hope this kid will start making good decisions at some point. I'd imagine he'll be nervous about his standing in the system until the 2010 draftees have been signed and placed.

I have to admit I spent very little time looking into the draft prior to the first round on Monday. The Tigers didn't pick until the 44th spot and it seemed silly to me to try to guess what direction they might go when you had no idea who would be available because of signability. It's not like you can look at the Top 50 talents and guess they'll get somebody between 40 and 48. As it turned out, they got the player Baseball America had as the 14th best talent in the draft. It's funny to me that MLB has maintained that being able to trade draft picks wouldn't work, but they have set up a system that essentially lets teams buy their way up the draft board. Isn't that what the Tigers are doing when they get a player who's 20 or 30 slots above where they got him?

Imagine the players all charted in order of talent. Put their bonus demands next to that player and each team runs their finger down the line until they get to the first player whose talent level meets up with the bonus they're willing to give them. So a team that only wants to give a $1 million dollar bonus could be said to be selling their way down the board in exchange for the million or more they get in savings. A team like the Tigers has their finger stop much higher on the board and could be said to be buying their way up to, in this case, 30 spots above their actual draft position. Wouldn't it be better for baseball if teams were making these deals for players and talent rather than the money?

Okay, I don't want to turn this into a post about the draft and its shortcomings. Nick Castellanos was a shortstop in high school, but he was considered a third baseman in every draft report or profile I saw and the Tigers have already said that's where he'll be. He's reported to have the agility to stay at third, but there seems to be some inconsistency between that report and what they're talking about for his hitting. He's already 6'4" and seems to weigh somewhere between 190 and 200 pounds (reports are conflicting). People talk about him being agile and having the athleticism to stick at third, but they say his frame leads them to believe he could fill out a bit and allow for some more strength. That's great in that he'll hit for more power, but I can't help but wonder what it will mean for that agility and athleticism he's reported to have and will need to be good at third base. 

I'm not going to get too worked up over it, though. With the third basemen the Tigers have in the system right now, he could field like Eric Munson over there and he'll get his shot if he can hit. One thing working in his favor defensively seems to be his arm. I didn't find anything less than positive about his arm. But let's get back to the bat. It's the bat that has people talking and it's the bat that is probably going to get him the two or three million dollars (or whatever; I'm just guessing) he'll want to skip college. Baseball America says he can "flat out rake". He's said to hit to all fields and that is backed up by this scouting video, which shows him hitting doubles the opposite way. (Incidentally, watch the video and you'll see what they mean about him having room to fill out). The only quibble I have about the video, showing him at the Under Armour game in Wrigley where he hit four doubles, is at least a couple of those doubles look like easy grabs if you put pro outfielders on the field. But he's not getting drafted based on his MLB.com scouting video. David Chadd said "his swing is very fundamentally sound" with a "short, quick, compact stroke, and his pitch recognition is strong" and that's going to be based on a number of Tigers scouts seeing him at various times. 

I like the sound of Chadd's assessment of his swing because those sound like keywords that could lead to him being a disciplined hitter. The Tigers need a third base prospect, but they need disciplined hitters just about as badly. My only hesitation is when I read multiple reports about the potential for his bat, they were a little more mixed than I expected considering he was sometimes referred to as the top high school bat in the draft. There's a little too much talk about him developing power - rather than having it - for me too feel and warm and snuggly with the idea of him being the Tigers' third baseman in four or five years. I realize you have to project for a kid coming out of high school. It just makes me a little nervous considering the Tigers' history with prospects on the left side of the infield. I don't want to close giving the feeling I have a negative opinion, so let me focus on a couple of positives. 

First, I like people's reservations about the bat are his ability to hit with enough power for a third baseman. If he is a disciplined hitter who doesn't flash the power people expect from third basemen, I'm fine with that. I'm generally of the opinion that a good hitter can be classified as a good hitter for a lot of different reasons. For example, I don't care that John Olerud didn't hit like you'd expect for a first baseman. I only care that he was a fantastic hitter. If Castellanos gets to a point where he's a productive third baseman, I'm not too concerned about whether it's because he has great power, draws a lot of walks or some mix of the two. I also like that Castellanos gets high marks for his intelligence and work ethic. I know those things are a little nebulous, but it always gives me a better feeling about a player when they are mentioned as a postive rather than not brought up at all - or certainly when they're considered a negative. Finally, it's a positive for me that he received a lot of attention in his senior year and flourished under that microscope. Thriving under a lot of attention is just one more thing you might not have to worry about as he makes the transition to being a pro.

Overall, the Tigers are getting high marks for this pick and given their history, it feels like most people just assume he will get signed. Good for Detroit that they have become a team known for getting the talent they want. The only down side to this is he is going to be an above slot signing and that means his signing won't be announced until the deadline, August 15th. That means we won't get to see him perform in earnest until 2011.

One of the things I find a little bizarre about writing a blog dealing with minor leaguers is the unenviable task of defending my skepticism of certain prospects. A name that sticks out in my head to illustrate this is Alden Carrithers. His name is coming up in comments and emails - not just here - right now because he's among the Florida State League batting leaders with a .364 batting average. Seeing him hit so well reminds me of the various times readers of this site have emailed or commented to tell me about him. When he was drafted by the Tigers in the 15th round of the 2008 draft, I received a couple of emails or comments from people who had seen him play at UCLA. Considering he was a Golden Spikes finalist coming out of college, it's not surprising the reports were positive. People reported talking to scouts who had him as a fifth round talent. He was a gamer and a good kid, they said.

I don't want to say I ignore these type of emails, but I put almost no faith in them. I've just seen too many instances of people seeing a player do one thing on the field and assessing their skill in that area forever based on one play or one game. It's hard not to do this, in fact. When you go to a game and see a guy in person, it's hard not to extrapolate his taking an extra base out to him being a good baserunner and a smart player. If he brings back a home run in the outfield or nails a runner at home to save the game, it's difficult to understand when people are talking about how he is going to be a liability in the field. Anyway, I discounted these emails further when Carrithers hardly played in 2008 and was in the Gulf Coast League when he did. True, there could have been an explanation for the late start and the low assignment, but time was working against him and he needed at bats against upper level pitching quickly if he was going to prove to be a prospect.

After that 2008 season, I did my usual assessment of the system and tried to figure out where the Tigers' second basemen were going to fall out. I guessed that Justin Henry would get the Lakeland assignment and Mike Gosse and Alden Carrithers would fight it out for the starting job in West Michigan. The Tigers illustrated how difficult those assignments are to get right by switching Brandon Douglas from shortstop to second base and making him the starting second baseman for the Caps. Before that happened, though, I was greeted by a number of emails and comments extolling the virtues of Carrithers. Some just talked about what a ballplayer he was. Others were a little more confrontational, saying things along the lines of me needing to get out and watch some games if I thought Henry or Gosse were better players than Carrithers.

Well, the season started and Carrithers was nowhere to be seen among the full season squads. When he finally did pop up, it was in Oneonta in late June. After a brief stay down there, he moved up to West Michigan to fill in for the injured Brandon Douglas at second. When Douglas came back, the Caps worked to keep him in the lineup by giving him some time in left field. This was understandable because by the time the season ended, Carrithers had hit .307/.395/.367 for them with more walks than strikeouts and a good deal of speed. His playing second fiddle to Douglas at second and pulling some time as an outfielder made it difficult to get a feel for what the Tigers thought of him.

Well, this season has been the first he's had a regular job as he's unequivocally the starting second baseman for the Flying Tigers. It's obviously going pretty well. So well, in fact, that if you breeze through the nooks and crannies of the internet where people talk about Tigers' prospects, you'll find his name coming up more and more. This is what brings me back to my original point. People see comments about him or come across his sterling batting average and wonder if the Tigers might have something here. Some who do this come across this site and ask me what I think. This is where I assume the role of wet blanket.

Yes, it's true Alden Carrithers is hitting .364/.469/.438 as the calendar turns to June. That is a very promising line. Promising enough to make you wonder how well he would hit if he were bumped up to Erie. Justin Henry, after all, isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball up there and at this point we have good reason to suspect he never will. But look closer at Carrithers' numbers. That .364 batting average comes with 49 of his 59 hits being singles. That's a very high percentage and I'd say it puts Carrithers squarely in the slap hitter category. That type of hitter lives dangerously in that they require a lot of grounders and line drives eluding infielders to be successful. Right now, Carrithers looks great because he has a BABIP of .420. If you take that down to a more reasonable (but still very high) .350, his line would be something closer to .302/.418/.377. That's assuming his nine doubles weren't among the lost hits, and it makes for a still good but much more modest output. I hate to always fall back to BABIP like this, but it really is important to remember when so much of a player's value comes from batting average.

The good news for Carrithers is he supplements his batting average by drawing a ton of walks and not striking out much. So far this season, he's drawn 32 free passes and has struck out only 23 times. That has made him a very valuable table setter for the Flying Tigers, and that level of plate discipline is encouraging. I don't know if there has been a study tying good plate discipline to elevated BABIPs, but on the surface it makes sense that a player who picks his pitches carefully will have a better chance of squaring up on the ball and hitting more sharp singles than a hacker. That's quite a rosy outlook, though. If we're going with conventional wisdom arguments, it's probably only fair to mention another common belief. That is that players who draw tons of walks in the low minors but hit nothing but singles are going to struggle when they move up and better pitchers have no reason to fear throwing them strikes. I think there actually have been some studies of this one, and while I can't at the moment find the results, I tend to put a little more faith in this one than the previous hypothesis.

Putting the unsupported theories aside, the reason I'm taking a wait and see approach with Carrithers is his age. The thing that is frustrating with players who are old for their level is you are tempted to argue that they can only hit where they are placed. I know because it's the argument I used to use for Mike Hollimon. All I knew was he hit the crap out of the ball everywhere they put him and I had no reason to believe he would quit until I sawa it. I think people are using similar logic for Alden Carrithers, but here's the problem. There are currently 25 second basemen in the major leagues who are qualified for the batting title based on the number of games their respective teams have played. You can probably guess how many of them played in Hi A ball (other than rehab assignments) when they were 25 years old. That would be zero. It's true there are exceptions to the rule all the time in baseball, but as a prospect watcher who doesn't get to see guys play all that often, I have to play the percentages. The percentages suggest to me Carrithers isn't going to be a starting second baseman at the major league level. That doesn't mean he won't make a serviceable utility infielder. Homegrown utility infielders are valuable in that they allow you to fill that need without paying a veteran $1 million to do the same thing. They're just not the kind of prospect that gets people all fired up. People want to hear a prospect is going to be the next Chase Utley or Robinson Cano. They lose some interest when he's more likely to be the next Jamey Carroll.

I hate to think somebody is going to come across this and think I am running down Alden Carrithers. He simply provides a convenient example of an exercise you constantly have to do when you are somebody who writes about minor leaguers. That is look at a player who is doing well and come up with arguments for why he will or will not prove to be a valuable asset at the major league level. It's fun when somebody asks you about somebody you're excited about. "OMG! I know! He's awesome, right?" It's less fun when you feel the need to temper their excitement. "Well, here's the bad news." Once you're finished, I can tell you it's a lot more fun when the player's family members (or the player himself) come across the former rather than the latter. Of course, you're not providing a very valuable service to readers if you point to every prospect and say why you think he's a future big leaguer.

This is the final post in a series where I look at each of the positions where the Tigers are getting below average production at the plate. The previous posts have been the introduction and looks at the system’s catchers, second basemen and shortstops. Today, we look at the Tiger’s current third basemen as well as prospects who could fill in at the hot corner in the future.

There is probably not a position where you will get a broader opinion of whether the Tigers need to upgrade than third base. On the one side, you have rabid Inge fans who nearly tear up at the thought of letting Inge walk as a free agent. On the other side, there are the people who can’t wait to have his contract expire because they believe he should be kicked to the curb. Take last year as an example. Inge supporters would point out he was a legitimate choice as an All Star before he hurt his starting having problems with his knees. Detractors would point out that by the end of the season he settled in pretty close to his career averages (.230/.314/.406 in 2009; .235/.305/.395 career).

So what do the Tigers have in Brandon Inge? Is he a solid third baseman who can be trusted to keep manning the position for the duration of a two or three year contract? Or is his defense at third not good enough to let him keep weighing down that bottom third of the lineup? Let’s start trying to answer that question by looking at what he’s doing right now. Playing just about every day, he’s hitting .229/.296/.417 so far this season, good for a wOBA of .310. That’s about ten percent worse than the average hitter in the American League and obviously subpar among third basemen since I’m doing this post.

This, to me, seems like a notch in the win column for the “haters”. These numbers are strikingly similar to where he ended up last year, and I haven’t heard anything about his knees bothering him this year. The fact that the numbers are also close to his career production makes it hard to assume they will get much better. You may point out that as a third baseman, he’s hit .249/.322/.419 in his carer. However, as much as you may love Inge, you can’t argue that he’s immune to the effects of aging. His getting older and there being no striking anomalies compared his career averages suggests to me the Inge we’re getting is the Inge we should expect at this point.

To be fair, though, Inge has never made his case at third with his bat. He’s won his spot in the lineup with his glove and he’s having another good season in the field so far this year. Ultimate Zone Rating has him as the fifth best third baseman in the league at this early stage. The interesting thing to me about his defense to this point is it’s the opposite of what we’ve always expected from Inge. In the past, he’s made a lot of errors but has been forgiven for them. That’s because we concede a lot of the errors come from his being able to make plays on balls few others would get to. This season, he hasn’t made many errors but the early returns show his range hasn’t been all that great. This isn’t too concerning, though, because the give and take leaves him right about where we expect defensively. That means if we’re seeing a small sample effect, things normalizing won’t change the large scale results much.

This is pretty interesting. Inge is hitting right around his career average and if we avoid fanatic optimism, is probably producing at the level we should expect. In the field, he’s still giving the Tigers good defense. Defense that is also pretty close to the level he’s established in the recent past. That means that as we approach the one-third mark of the Tigers’ season, Inge has done us the courtesy of giving us a performance that is very close to what we should expect from him. Unfortunately, that doesn’t really sway our argument as to whether he’s valuable or not, does it?

He’s not winning or losing fans by doing what he’s always done. Looking at it objectively, he’s on pace for a season that’s about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That’s a shade above average (considered 2.0 WAR) and his salary this year would actually be a bit of a bargain compared to what players get in the free agency market. Now, if you’re trying to decide whether to sign him after this season, it’s important to remember he’s going to turn 34 in 2011. He’s likely to start losing some value compared to a career baseline that is just about average. It’s going to be very interesting to see how the Tigers value him as a player and how much they value his standing as an obvious favorite among fans.

If Inge is allowed to walk, do the Tigers have a player waiting in the wings to replace him? The simple answer is no. That no may not be as emphatic as it was at this time last year, but that’s still the answer. In Toledo, there are a whole host of players getting time at third base. If we’re talking about players with a possible future in Detroit (being generous in that assessment) they include Will Rhymes, Danny Worth, Jeff Larish and Brent Dlugach. I don’t think Larish can play third base every day even if he starts hitting like the Tigers have always hoped he would. Those other three may be able to handle the position defensively, but would be very hard pressed to match even Brandon Inge in terms of offense. When I put these names into my internal computer and ask it if any of them will spend significant time as a Tiger third baseman, the reply is...well insulting, frankly.

When we go deeper into the system, there is a little more gray area. Audy Ciriaco has been a prospect for the Tigers for what seems like forever. For the past few years, he’s toiled away as a shortstop in the lower levels of the system. There was clearly a lot of talent there, but he made an inordinate number of errors and struggled to hit his weight. Then last season, he was promoted to Lakeland and responded by hitting better than he ever had. It still wasn’t particularly good, but continued progress could put him in the picture as a prospect and seemed achievable with his talent. This season, he was promoted to Erie (after being put on the 40-man roster over the offseason) and has had mixed results. It’s difficult to evaluate him at this point because he hasn’t played much and we don’t know how much an ailing wrist has hurt his performance. If he can get his wrist issues behind him, he’s the player in the system who’s easiest to envision in this role. Mind you, for that to happen there’s going to have to be continued improvement and it would have to be substantial at that. At least in terms of results on the field.

One step lower, your options are Bryan Pounds and Francisco Martinez. Pounds was the everyday third baseman for the Flying Tigers before going on the disabled list. He was hitting .287/.355/.346 when he went down. That’s above average for the league, but it’s also very dependent on a batting average that’s boosted significantly by good fortune in terms of hits falling in. That combined with his being a 24-year old taken in the 34th round of last year’s draft tells me we should continue looking.

Martinez is supposed to be one of the players who could end this search. He’s still just 19 and since the Tigers brought him over to the States last year, it’s a good bet they like his talent. The problem for this discussion is that talent hasn’t come close to showing itself in the numbers. He had a rough go in the GCL last year and what could have been viewed as a good start with Lakeland was mostly singles falling in. As the plate appearances have accumulated, he now finds himself hitting .250/.279/.300 with two walks and 15 strikeouts. It seems premature to talk about a timeline for him being in the majors.

We now move one step further down and ironically, come to a player who’s probably closer to contributing than the previous two third basemen discussed. Wade Gaynor was taken in the third round last year, and after having a very bad go at the NY-Penn League last year, is showing signs of life in Grand Rapids. He’s hitting just .264/.324/.368 but those numbers have been trending upward lately and are a bit better than league average. One potential issue for Gaynor is what he can do on defense. Reviews weren’t glowing in scouting reports last year and he is at the very least error prone - 11 errors already. If he is the second most likely future option, that probably says more about the system’s third baseman than his performance as a pro to this point.

If you’re going to dig further than Gaynor, you have to get into some serious projecting of talent. Even if somebody not playing in the full season leagues pans out, you’re talking a good four or five years before they’re pushing to play for the Tigers. Just to show I’ve done some work on this, though, I will point out that the third base duties are being shared in the VSL by Jesus Ustariz and Jose Soledad. Ustariz was signed right after International Signing Day last year, a few months after his 16th birthday. Soledad signed on his 16th birthday in 2008 and is splitting time between third and first.

Conclusion

I’m beginning to sound repetitive, I know, but I don’t get a warm, fuzzy feeling about the Tigers’ ability to upgrade at third base without hitting either the trade or free agency markets. We all know what Inge is at this point and whether you’re okay with that or not, he’s not likely to provide even what we’re used to for more than a couple more seasons. Even if the Tigers view that as a cushion for developing their current third basemen, they would be putting a lot of faith in one of the players mentioned making huge leaps over the next couple years. I doubt even the Tigers are all that comfortable with assuming such improvement will come from any of these players. I’d look for the Tigers to sign Inge for a couple years with an eye on making him a utility guy if a better option at third presents itself.

Toledo Mud Hens

Overall Record: 27-22
Week of 5/23 - 5/29: 3-3

5/23: @Syracuse, Won, 8-5, WP: Enrique Gonzalez
5/24: @Syracuse, Lost, 3-6, WP: L.J. Gagnier
5/25: @Syracuse, Won, 6-3, WP: Max Scherzer
5/27: @Buffalo, Lost, 7-8, LP: Josh Rainwater
5/28: @Buffalo, Lost, 3-7, LP: Alfredo Figaro
5/29: @Buffalo, Won, 5-4, WP: Enrique Gonzalez SV: Jay Sborz

Runs scored: 32
Runs allowed: 33

The hitting was ahead of the pitching this week as the starters had only two quality starts. Max Scherzer’s start was of superb quality, though, and helped him show that he deserved to be starting for the Tigers on Sunday. In the bullpen, the story I see developing a bit is the recent struggles of Jay Sborz. He didn’t give up a run in April, but allowed at least one run in each of his three appearances this week.

On offense, the team went a little homer happy as they turned in eight homers on the week. That total includes two each from Casper Wells, Jeff Frazier and the newly healthy Ryan Strieby. I know I said we wouldn’t know if Strieby was past his wrist problem until he could play without pain for a long stretch, but it’s still nice to have that power back in the lineup.

Top prospects’ results:

Brent Dlugach, SS/3B, 5/21 (.238), 2b, BB, 6 K, E. This was another bad week for the shortstop, who has seen his share as he now has 67 strikeouts in little more than 200 trips to the plate.

Jeff Larish, 1B, Disabled list

Casper Wells, CF, 7/24 (.292), 2b, 2 HR, 7 K, SB, Assist. All the strikeouts with no walks doesn’t make me happy, but it’s good to see a Tiger go back down to Toledo and get right back to hitting the ball hard. The walks will come.

Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF, 7/25 (.280), 2b, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, E. Ending the week with a golden sombrero (0 for 4, 4 K) isn’t ideal like Wells, he seems to be back to hitting the ball with authority again.

Scott Sizemore, 2B/3B/DH, 9/26 (.346), 3 2b, 2 BB, 5 K. I had wondered to myself if Sizemore getting some time at third might be a plan to get him back to the majors, but he’s played second since Guillen left.

Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Faced just one batter and was put on the disabled list. His Twitter updates seem optimistic.

Daniel Schlereth, LHP, 3 IP, 8 H, 4 R, BB, 3 K. Just one walk for the week is good, but let’s hope getting lit up in two of his three outings wasn’t the price he paid for throwing strikes.

Alfredo Figaro, RHP, 4.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 4 BB, K. This was his worst start of the season in terms of innings pitched, hits and walks allowed, and strikeouts. He’s walked 11 in his last three starts and needs to shake this funk or he’ll put himself in danger of being irrelevant at the major league level.

Jay Sborz, RHP, 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, BB, 4 K, 2 HR. As I mentioned in the weekly summary,  this was a month’s worth of damage suffered in just three outings. It’s ironic since he had just started getting some national notice as a 2003 draft pick on the cusp of the majors.

Player of the Week: Jeff Frazier, LF/1B

No American Idol this week, but Frazier stayed hot. He was 8 for 25 (.320) for the week and half of the hits went for extra bases. Two were doubles and two were homers, giving him a slugging percentage of .640 for the week. That’s not bad; I just wish he’d take a few more walks (1). We can forgive him, considering he only struck out three times.

Pitcher of the Week: Max Scherzer, RHP

Scherzer made two beautiful starts as he figured out his mechanics and showed the Tigers why they traded for him in the first place. He struck out seven in seven innings, giving up just three hits, a walk and a run in his second (and hopefully final) Triple A start.

Injuries and transactions:

Robbie Weinhardt faced one batter on Monday before coming out with a sore shoulder. Brendan Wise was pulled up from Erie to try to fill his spot in the bullpen. Ruddy Lugo came back and made a start a little over a month after taking a liner off his temple. Finally, Danny Worth rejoined the Hens when Carlos Guillen was called up. It remains to be seen how the Hens will fill Scherzer’s turn in the rotation. Ryan Ketchner is a possibility.

Erie SeaWolves

Overall Record: 24-25
Week of 5/16 - 5/22: 1-5

5/23: Altoona, Lost, 1-2, LP: Andrew Oliver
5/24: @Trenton, Lost, 4-6, LP: Duane Below
5/25: @Trenton, Lost, 0-4, LP: Thad Weber
5/26: @Trenton, Lost, 6-7, LP: Luis Marte
5/27: @ Trention, Suspended due to rain
5/28: Harrisburg, Won, 7-4, WP: Andrew Oliver, SV: Zach Simons
5/29: Harrisburg, Lost, 2-5, LP: Luis Marte

Runs scored: 20
Runs allowed: 28

The big news this week was Wilkin Ramirez smacking three homers on Wednesday only to see his team lose. Maybe he had some advice for Miguel Cabrera on how to deal with it since Cabrera went through the same thing at the major league level on Friday. It’s a sign of Ramirez’s struggles as a prospect that those homers were three of his four hits on the week. He certainly was the only one when you consider the team as a whole was just 42 for 210 (.200) for the week.

Some might say Ramirez’s big day was the best sign for the Erie squad and the organization this week, but I’d vote for Andrew Oliver. He made two quality starts and only walked one batter. It’s just too bad his were the only notable starts of the week.

Top prospects’ results:

Cale Iorg, SS, 3/19 (.158), 10 K. It took him a .333 BABIP to hit .158 on the week. That’s even worse when you realize the hits were all singles.

Audy Ciriaco, 3b, 2/7 (.286), HR, 2 K. Ciriaco came back from a recurring wrist problem and hopes it will hold up to the daily grind better this time. His three run homer on Friday was a key part of the team’s win.

Wilkin Ramirez, OF, 4/19 (.211), 3 HR, 4 BB, 7 K, 2/2 SB, 2 assists. The three homers weren’t the only encouraging sign for Ramirez as he drew some walks and gunned a couple runners. He’s not going to earn his way back to the majors by taking three ofers a week, though.

Luis Marte, RHP, 4 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K, HR. In a bad week, Marte took two losses and saw his ERA shoot up over 4.00.

Jared Gayhart, RHP, 4.1 IP, 4 H, BB, 5 K. Gayhart had a much needed promising week as he found his strikeouts and control and didn’t give up a run in two outings. It’s going to take a while to get a bloated ERA down, but all he can do is keep working at it.

Duane Below, LHP, 8.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 4 K, HR. Below followed a dreadful start (3.2 IP, 5 R, 3 BB, 2 K) with a passable one (5 IP, 6 H, R, BB, 2 K). He was hard on the Wolves’ pen this week, especially since the second start was part of a 13-inning game.

Player of the Week: Cesar Nicolas, 3B/DH

It wasn’t easy making this pick this week. Ultimately, Nicolas gets the call for breaking the Mendoza line - he was 6 for 24 (.250) - and hitting three of the team’s 14 extra base hits this week. They were two doubles and a homer and for that, we’ll overlook his throwing errors in consecutive games early in the week.

Pitcher of the Week: Andy Oliver, LHP

In a tough week for the Wolves, say hello to your bright spot. Ratcheting up his strikeouts (15 K in 13.2 IP) and walking just one batter in the two starts combined are fantastic signs for his prospect standing. When you have Oliver’s stuff and can get past control problems, success can come quickly. It showed this week (13.2 IP, 9 H, 3 R, BB, 15 K, 2 HR) and don’t think the Tigers won’t notice if he keeps it up.

Injuries and transactions:

Audy Ciriaco returned to the team after battling wrist soreness and Matt Hoffman joined the team from Lakeland after Brendan Wise was called up to Toledo.

Lakeland Flying Tigers

Overall Record: 29-20
Week of 5/23 - 5/29: 5-2

5/23: St. Lucie, Won, 10-4, WP: Brayan Villarreal
5/24: @Tampa, Won, 4-1, WP: Adam Wilk, SV: Erik Crichton
5/25: Tampa, Won, 10-3, WP: Charlie Furbush
5/26: @Tampa, Won, 7-2, WP: Luke Putkonen
5/27: @Palm Beach, Lost, 4-5, LP: Mark Sorensen
5/28: @Palm Beach, Won, 7-2, WP: Brayan Villarreal
5/29: @Palm Beach, Lost, 3-6, LP: Adam Wilk

Runs scored: 45
Runs allowed: 23

This team is really starting to roll as they are getting good starts from their rotation most nights and can front load their lineup with some hitters who are doing very well. As I said at the beginning of the season, the thing that is most likely to derail their success would be promotions. They have a number of players like Alden Carrithers, Kody Kaiser and Charlie Furbush who are either old for the level, repeating the level or both.

Furbush seems particularly likely for a promotion considering his 90 strikeouts lead the minor leagues, he’s already pitched in the FSL before and he’s 24 years old. I noticed some reports that Brandon Douglas could be returning to action soon, and if the Tigers wanted to put him in the FSL that could be the reason they need to promote Carrithers. Then, of course, you have the ever present threat of injuries. Whatever the reason for promotions, they should be expected and we’ll have to see how the team responds.

Top prospects’ results:

Gustavo Nunez, SS, 5/24 (.208), 2 BB, 6 K, 2/2 SB. Much like Iorg, Nunez’s season seems to be spiraling but at least he avoided making any errors.

Billy Nowlin, DH/1b, 7/20 (.350), 3 HR, 3 BB, 4 K, 1/1 SB, E. I’ve been waiting for Nowlin to break out just about all season and it seems he legitimately did this week, homering in three consecutive games. He did manage to once again error in the only game he played the field. The Tigers will put up with that if he has found his bat.

Daniel Fields, CF, 7/25 (.280), 2b, 3b, 6 BB, 7 K, 0/1 SB. Fields went through a couple of tough weeks but a line like this is very encouraging. All those walks could earn him a higher spot in the lineup eventually.

Rawley Bishop, 1B/3B, 9/27 (.333), 3 2b, BB, 10 K. Bishop continues to rake, but it was without a lot of power this week and there was a lot of wind provided during the effort. The third base experiment seems to be over as he hasn’t returned since last Sunday.

Francisco Martinez, 3B/DH, 5/27 (.185), 2 2b, BB, 12 K, 0/1 SB. I expected the league to figure Martinez out, but it seemed to come pretty quickly. Hopefully, he’ll learn what he needs to work on if and when he gets reassigned.

Alden Carrithers, 2B, 8/25 (.320), 4 2b, 8 BB, 6 K, 1/1 SB. I had not included Carrithers in the top prospect portion of these posts but he’s getting harder to ignore. He’s hitting .364/.469/.438 after Sunday’s game (in which he hit his first homer).

Luke Putkonen, RHP, 7 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K, HR. Putkonen’s ground ball ways generally keep the ball in the park, but he’s now allowed two homers this season and they’ve come in his last couple starts. Let’s hope it’s a fluke.

Lester Oliveros, RHP, 2.2 IP, 4 H, R, 2 BB, 3 K. He got back to work quickly with three games in his first week off the disabled list. The first of the three was responsible for the shaky numbers cited.

Adam Wilk, LHP, 12.2 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 11 K, HR. Wilk experienced the sublime (8 IP, 4 H, R, 8 K) and the subpar (4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K) this week. This hot and cold trend has been going on for a while now.

Charlie Furbush, LHP, 8 IP, 4 H, R, 12 K, HR. If we’re being honest, Furbush should probably win the Pitcher of the Week again. Let’s spread the hardware around a bit, though, shall we? His 90 Ks lead the minors from what I can tell and there’s only one other pitcher with even 80. Factor in just 11 walks and he seems to be ready for Double A.

Player of the Week: Kody Kaiser, RF/DH

It was much easier picking Kaiser this week than last. He was far more dominant at the plate than any of his Flying Tiger teammates. In addition to hitting in 13 of 28 at bats (.464), he smacked four doubles and a homer, walked three times compared to only four strikeouts and stole his eighth base of the season (in two tries).

Pitcher of the Week: Brayan Villarreal, RHP

Villarreal picked up two wins this week and they were well deserved. The first was a quality start that saw him strike out one per inning. The second was better as he struck out nine in seven innings with only one walk allowed and no homers. For the week he threw 13 innings, allowing 11 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks and one homer while striking out 15.

Injuries and transactions:

Lester Oliveros coming back from the disabled list was one of the only moves for the week. The other was Matt Hoffman getting called up to Erie.

West Michigan Whitecaps

Overall Record: 19-31
Week of 5/23 - 5/29: 3-5

5/23: @Fort Wayne, Lost, 6-7, LP: Jose Ortega
5/24: @Fort Wayne, Lost, 2-3, LP: Melvin Mercedes
5/25: @Lansing: Won, 3-0, WP: Giovany Soto
5/25: @Lansing, Lost, 1-7, LP: Victor Larez
5/26: @Lansing, Lost, 5-9, LP: Ramon Lebron
5/27: @Lansing, Won, 4-2, WP: Jacob Turner, SV: Kenny Faulk
5/28: Dayton, Lost, 4-5, LP: Kenny Faulk
5/29: Dayton, Won, 6-5, WP: Trevor Feeney, SV: Victor Larez

Runs scored: 31
Runs allowed: 38

The Whitecaps packed eight games into one week and are further away from .500 for their trouble. They’re on pace for an awful season and that’s probably why they’re starting to tweak the roster. This week it was fairly minor moves but it will be interesting to see if something more substantial happens when the short seasons come and the draft injects more talent into the organization.

This week was a frustrating mix of giving up too many runs when they were able to score and being punchless when they had good pitching. Remember my excitement at the beginning of the season with having so many teenagers on a full season squad? Soto and Turner continue to serve as beacons of optimism in this dismal season, but things have not gone so well for the others. Mercedes was demoted this week and Hernan Perez and Avisail Garcia continue to struggle to find their footing against Midwest League pitchers.

Top prospects’ results:

Hernan Perez, SS, 5/20 (.250), HR, 2 BB. We’re not exactly seeing Perez thrust himself onto the national prospect scene, but I think there’s progress in a week where he hit his first home run, didn’t strikeout and didn’t make an error.

Avisail Garcia, RF/DH, 8/31 (.258), 2 BB, 9 K, 2/4 SB, E. I sometimes get Garcia and Espinoza mixed up in my head. Is it terribly difficult to see why? The good thing is Garcia is playing the field and is quite a bit younger.

Jamie Johnson, CF/DH, 9/29 (.310), 2b, 2 3b, 4 BB, 6 K, E. Johnson continues to provide the team with a very good leadoff man’s skillset. They’d probably like to get a few more stolen bases out of him but only a fool would complain about a leadoff man who’s giving you a .402 OBP.

Wade Gaynor, 3b, 6/27 (.222), 2b, 2 BB, 7 K, 2/3 SB, E. I’d really prefer this was just a hiccup for a guy playing a position where the Tigers desperately need development.

Melvin Mercedes, RHP, 1.2 IP, H, R, 3 BB, K. This was the swan song for Mercedes as he was sent down to extended spring training.

Ramon Lebron, RHP, 2.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 4 K, HR. At least he must have been throwing strikes to get pounded so badly.

Jacob Turner, RHP, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K, HR. People might look at his 1-2 record and 4.02 ERA in a pitcher’s league and wonder what’s wrong. The answer is probably nothing. He’s still struck out six times as many batters as he’s walked in a league where most batters are going to be two to four years older.

Player of the Week: Jordan Lennerton, 1B

Lennerton wins this award going away this week. He was 14 for 25 (.560) with five doubles and five walks while striking out just once. He’s 24, so it’s not like Miggy is worried, but this production is a welcome contribution to a struggling lineup.

Pitcher of the Week: Giovany Soto, LHP

Soto earned a complete game shutout, but it should be noted it was a seven inning game. Be that as it may, it was a welcome effort on a day when the bullpen needed to be ready for the second game. He struck out six, walked two and allowed four hits in the win.

Injuries and transactions:

The Whitecaps were busy as they shook up the fringes of the roster. Melvin Mercedes, Luis Sanz, Elvin Soto and Luis Palacios were all sent to extended spring training. Replacing them were Zach Samuels, Jared Wesson, Chris Sedon and Jimmy Gulliver. You may notice that’s two infielders in and only one out. That’s because Mike Gosse wasn’t sent to EST. He was released.

"I just felt we needed to get him out there," Leyland said after the game. "He hadn't been out there for a while. He'll be fine. He didn't throw that many pitches. We were a little short tonight, obviously. You have to be careful how to use your bullpen, so I thought it was a good time to put him in there."

This is an excerpt from Jason Beck's blog in which Leyland is talking about why he put Galarraga in the game Friday. I read this and did sort of a double take. How on God's green earth was the bullpen "a little short tonight, obviously"? There were two off days this week. Verlander threw all but six of the team's pitches on Tuesday. Coke and Perry were the only ones to go on Wednesday and everybody had Thursday off. It would seem that literally the entire bullpen should have been ready and raring to go.

Looking at it another way, at the end of Willis's start, when was the last time each member of the bullpen had thrown a pitch in a game and how many pitches did they throw?

Last Friday (5/21)

Eddie Bonine, 8 pitches
Brad Thomas, 25 pitches

Saturday (5/22)

Fu-Te Ni, 19 pitches

Sunday (5/23)

Jose Valverde, 10 pitches

Tuesday (5/25)

Joel Zumaya, 6 pitches

Wednesday (5/26)

Phil Coke, 10 pitches
Ryan Perry, 23 pitches

I realize sometimes managers just say things just to kind of fill out the sentence, but the idea that they were "a little short" Friday kind of makes me laugh. I doubt there have been too many games this season where the bullpen should have been better prepared to handle four innings of work. So what do we make of this? Was it just some meaningless words that came out of Leyland's mouth? Is there something wrong with their long relief men, Bonine and Thomas? Have the Tigers lost confidence in either of those two? Regardless of the explanation, I would certainly like to hear what it is.

It's been a little while since we've done a transaction update other than the brief reviews I put in the weekly recaps. It was a slow week until today, but that doesn't mean there weren't significant developments before today. Part of the reason I say that is the return of Lester Oliveros from the disabled list. He had two trips in a short time and I always stay skeptical of a pitcher being truly healthy for a while after something like that. He'll be one to keep an eye for two reasons. First, to see if he pitches well and stays healthy and secondly as opposed to there being a long-term problem. The second reason is because he was pitching like one of the Tigers' best relief prospects before these issues arose. The same day Oliveros came back, Jimmy Gulliver was sent back down from the Lakeland squad to extended spring training. We never found out Gulliver's intended role on the team because he never got into a game. More on him later, though.

The next move involved another of the Tigers' top relief prospects, Robbie Weinhardt. He pitched to just one batter on Monday before coming out of the game with an injury. Hopefully, this is something he can bounce back from pretty quickly. The Tigers' bullpen has been great but Perry's nightmare outing on Wednesday shows how fragile even a good bullpen is. It felt like he should have been pulled after either the two-run homer or the near homer that put the go-ahead run at second. However, the Tigers' other options were limited. They're not pitching Zumaya on consecutive days, so he wasn't available. Bonine and Thomas are low leverage, multiple inning guys who shouldn't be put in when even seemingly harmless contact could have been quite damaging. Coke and Ni were available, but they're lefties who would have been at a platoon disadvantage against the next hitter. Personally, I would have preferred Leyland pulled Perry and put in Valverde but Valverde hasn't been put in before the ninth all season and he would have had to get ready quickly after the Sweeney homer. Let's not get into the argument of saving your closer for save situations, though. The point is your solid bullpen can be exposed quickly in the right situation. Therefore, it's nice to have as many guys like Weinhardt in your back pocket as possible.

To fill in while Weinhardt is on the disabled list, Brendan Wise was moved up to Toledo and Matt Hoffman was moved from Lakeland to Erie. Wise is an extreme ground ball pitcher - I mean extreme; his GB% is at 73 percent - who can use that asset to overcome underwhelming strikeout numbers. A look at his 2009 numbers - 50 hits in 38 innings - shows how dependent such pitchers are on good fortune and the defense behind them. Hoffman has been excellent in relief for Lakeland (22. IP, 17 H, 2 BB, 18 K, HR) but he'll be hoping to avoid an experience similar to last year when he dominated in the Midwest League before taking beating after beating in the FSL. Hopefully, trying to make the jump as a reliever will be the remedy he needs to avert a repeat of that unfortunate adventure.

Yesterday, Ruddy (yes, two "d"s and it's still pronounced Rudy) Lugo came back from the disabled list. He took a line drive to the head a little over a month ago and the Tigers were careful to make sure he was ready before putting him back in the rotation. Regardless of his standing as a prospect, it's a relief to see him able to take the mound again. There was no corresponding move, and I assume that's because of a roster spot being open with Dumatrait's contract being sold to Korea.

Friday we had a whole host of moves. The one everybody is going to be talking about is Carlos Guillen returning as the starting second baseman. It's unbelievable how much better the lineup looks than it did Wednesday, now that Cabrera and Guillen are back in it. We’ll have to wait and see what having Guillen at second means for the pitchers. I think everybody expects his bat to outplay his defensive deficiencies. Danny Worth was sent down to make room for Guillen. The Tigers may miss his slick defense, but I think his bat was already being exposed. After finding a lot of holes on the infield early, he was starting to take some ofers. That's not acceptable when you're too rarely hitting the ball out of the infield. He did seem to make an impression during his short stay, though. My only fear about this move is how Guillen will handle another move if Sizemore forces his way back onto the major league roster.

We generally don’t see a lot of movement in West Michigan. As I’ve explained before, the injury cascade generally stops in Lakeland because they can replace players pulled up to Erie with players in extended spring training or on the GCL squad, depending on the time of year. Well, that rule was broken yesterday as the Tigers must be trying to give the team a boost.

Luis Palacios, Elvin Soto, Melvin Mercedes and Luis Sanz were all sent down to extended spring training. They were replaced by Chris Sedon, Jimmy Gulliver, Jared Wesson and Zach Samuels. It’s pretty easy to see why the move was made. Palacios was hitting .191/.255/.245 in a reserve infielder role and Soto was about as bad, hitting .130/.273/.283 as the backup first baseman. In Palacios’ case, it would have been nice if he could have given the Caps a good bat off the bench when they wanted to give a struggling Hernan Perez or Mike Gosse a break. Instead, they had to pretty much punt on getting offense from the position when one of those two were rested. As for Soto, there’s simply no reason to keep around a first baseman who doesn’t look like he’s going to hit any better than the line cited above.

On the mound, Mercedes has had a rough go at it after a fairly strong start to the season. He seems to have completely lost his control, which was never fantastic, but he at least was able to work around it in the early going. Now, outings where he gives up multiple walks, hits and runs have become all too common. That’s led to an ugly line (19.2 IP, 11 R, 16 H, 19 BB, 12 K) and this demotion. Sanz wasn’t expected to be a high leverage pitcher like Mercedes. He was expected to come in and give multiple innings and all too often things spiraled out of control for him and his stats (25.1 IP, 18 R, 28 H, 16 BB, 20 K) reflect it.

Now, it should be interesting to see what these players’ replacements can provide for the team. I would expect Jimmy Gulliver to step into Luis Palacios’ backup infielder role, but to provide a boost for the team he’s going to need to find his swing. He hit .196/.285/.223 for Oneonta last season. About the only good thing about those numbers is his wllingness to take a walk. That should be welcome on a team that’s down near the bottom of the league in that category.

Sedon will probably be stepping into the starting second baseman role because the one move I have yet to mention is the release of their previous starter, Mike Gosse. That’s not terribly surprising. He’s 24 years old and was hitting just .226/.289/.336. Like Gulliver in the utility infielder role, though, Sedon doesn’t offer a sure remedy. The 10th round pick from last year’s draft hit .137/.221/.165 in Oneonta last year. The separation between batting average and on-base percentage may suggest a good approach, but it’s mostly due to him getting hit five times in addition to ten walks (against 57 strikeouts).

Wesson and Samuels are a couple of non-drafted pitchers who showed some promise while filling in for the GCL Tigers last season. Wesson’s ERA (6.23) and hits (22 H in 17.1 IP) from last year aren’t pretty but he was able to strikeout 27 batters in that short time. Samuels didn’t have Wesson’s gaudy strikeout rate, but was able to keep a pretty ERA (2.56) by limiting walks and homers (17 BB, 3 HR in 56.1 IP).

These moves obviously aren’t going to turn around the Caps’ season. What they should do is help the Tigers evaluate these new roster members ahead of the infustion of personnel they will get next week from the draft. For the players who were demoted, they can get back to an instructional environment where they can work on whatever was ailing them. Of course, at the same time they will be making their case for staying in the organziation.

This is the fourth post in a series where I look at each of the positions where the Tigers are getting less than league average production on the offensive side of things. After evaluating who’s responsible for the position not pulling its weight, I look to the minors to see if help is on the way in the short and long term. The previous posts have been the introduction and looks at catchers and second basemen.

Now I’m basing the series on less than league average production at the plate but that doesn’t mean players can’t earn their keep with the glove. Adam Everett, for example, would have been out of the league a long time ago if he hadn’t been an elite shortstop over the course of his career. I’m not saying he’s a good enough shortstop to make up for the fact that he’s hitting .197/.217/.258. He has been so good that teams have been willing to put up with him hitting for a career line of .243/.295/.349. So how good has he been this season? Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric says he’s saved three runs above the average shortstop and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has him at 2.1 runs saved. That’s good for the pitchers, but it doesn’t even come close to making up for being the worst hitting shortstop in the league among those with more than 50 plate appearances.

Now we can’t just say that he’s always been a light hitter and this is what we should expect. It’s true he’s always swung a balsa bat as he has 40 career homers in about five season’s worth of plate appearances, a career high ISO of just .117. But if he’s unable to pull himself out of his current offensive tailspin this would be far and away the worst season of his major league career. What’s been the problem?

His batted ball distribution jumps out at me, for sure. Only 11.3 percent of them have been line drives and a stunning 60.4 percent of them have been fly balls. That would usually lead you to believe a guy has a long upper cut swing made for trying for the fences. That’s not Everett, though, as he has yet to hit a homer and one out of five of those fly balls doesn’t clear the infield. Those numbers are way out of line with his career averages - 18.7 LD%, 42.1 FB% and 16.9 IFFB% - and in a bad way. One way Everett used to help himself out is laying down the occasional bunt and legging out a single, but he’s yet to get on with a bunt single this season.

It’s just been a terrible season for him at the plate. He’s swinging at pitches out of the strike zone too much, so that even though he’s a good contact hitter, he’s making contact on pitcher’s pitches. That’s probably a big part of why he’s only had four doubles and a BABIP of .241 when his career average is .275. The good news with Everett is he's likely to get better than he's been. The problem arises when you realize he's probably only going to hit as well as he has in the past when he does.

Moving on from Everett, something that might surprise some people about the Tigers at shortstop is Ramon Santiago has actually played more innings there than Everett. As of May 25 (before the game), Everett had played 187 innings there and Santiago had logged 201. There is some disagreement between the metrics as to who’s been the more effective defender. Dewan’s metric prefers Santiago, putting him at 5 DRS. UZR puts him at just 0.7 runs better than average. We’re talking about a miniscule sample, though, and the difference is going to pale in comparison to the difference between their run production.

Santiago, after all, is hitting .260/.366/.313 on the season for a level of production that is just a hair shy of league average. Most of the jump has come from the fact that he’s drawn 14 walks in just 113 plate appearances. This is a pretty shocking development for a player whose career walk rate is 6.8 percent. We saw a glimpse of this kind of patience in 2008, when he walked more than he struck out, but it’s a welcome improvement from 2009. It would just be nice if he could mix in a little bit of the power he found back in 2008 when he had 12 extra base hits in 156 plate appearances and an ISO of .177. This season, there’s been just three extra base hits.

One reason for the dip could be the fact that he’s hitting a lot of ground balls. Over his career, just under half of his balls in play were grounders and this season it’s sitting at 54.5. That’s one thing eating up his power and like Everett, infield flies are another. The ground ball swing has limited him to 20 fly balls on the season and four of those fell harmlessly in an infielder’s glove. That’s already more than halfway to his 2009 total. Shortcomings aside, Santiago has been far and away the more valuable player this season. It’s put the Tigers in the tough spot of trying to let Everett break a slump while they also work to limit the damage it does to the team’s offense.

That completes a pretty thorough look at the Tigers’ two shortstops in 2010, but what if Everett keeps up a pace that no team can be willing to accept even from a half-time starter? What are their immediate options if Everett wears through their patience? Right now, it’s easy to look to Danny Worth. I talked a bit about him in the post about second basemen. As easy as it is to look at him as an option right now, it’s just as easy to overvalue his current big league numbers. A bit of luck has found him hitting .412 in his brief time in the majors, but .412 is also his on-base percentage and slugging percentage. If you think he’s going to continue hitting .412, I’d like to invite you into my fantasy baseball league.

While the Tigers like the improvements he made after an awful 2009 season, he was still hitting just .274/.310/.356 in Toledo when he was called up. That would be acceptable if he could play plus defense as a shortstop and translate those numbers to the majors. That’s generally not how it works, though, when players jump from Triple A to the bigs. I’m really not even sure about the plus defense. After all, the Tigers have allowed him to be pushed off shortstop for both Brent Dlugach and Cale Iorg the last two years. If he were a slick enough fielder to make up for his bat, I’m not sure that would have happened.

That serves as a nice lead-in, however, to the next players to consider. That would be Brent Dlugach in Toledo and Cale Iorg in Erie. Both are reputed to be very solid defenders as both have received endorsements from Tiger personnel as being big league shortstops on defense right now. The problem is neither is hitting a lick at the moment and have struggled long enough to allow for doubt as to whether they ever will. Dlugach hit .294/.349/.446 in Toledo last year, but required a high BABIP to do it and struck out 137 times against just 39 walks. This year, he’d kill for any of those numbers as he’s now hitting just .261/.307/.367 and has already struck out 62 times (and walked just 9) in 192 plate appearances. That’s an absurd amount and that combined with his nine errors this season are probably why Worth was called up when they wanted an infielder with a good glove.

Cale Iorg is kind of like Dlugach without the good 2009 numbers. His 2009 season was a major disappointment (.222/.274/.336 with 149 strikeouts) and things have only been worse in 2010. He’s hitting .195/.241/.295 and his 53 strikeouts put him on pace to beat last year’s total. That’s particularly disappointing when you consider he’s repeating the level. The positive difference between Iorg and Dlugach is Iorg has a level of talent that could allow for a jaw-dropping breakthrough if he ever figured out plate discipline and/or pitch recognition. That’s why he was given that big bonus and it’s why Dave Dombrowski said he was going to be an All Star. Unfortunately, every time he flashes something resembling promise it gets extinguished by a prolonged, ugly slump.

During the most recent offseason, you could say Iorg was replaced as the organization’s shortstop of the future. Before the 2009 season, Dombrowski had stated that Iorg was going to be a star and sooner than you think. After the disappointing 2009, Dombrowski said Gustavo Nunez was a player Dombrowski brought up when asked about exciting prospects in the system. After having heard a similar pronouncement the year before, many Tiger fans were understandably skeptical.

Yes, Nunez had just hit .315 in the pitcher’s paradise of the Midwest League, stealing 45 bases and showing some serious leather as the team’s shortstop. There were holes in the game, though. He only drew 25 walks to go with that flashy batting average and it took him 70 attempts to get those stolen bases. There wasn’t a lot of power, either, as only 31 of his 146 hits went for extra bases. His game was all about his speed and he seemed to need to refine how he put even that to use.

These were certainly red flags coming into 2010, but it was also pretty easy to see how he could grow into a likable prospect. The Florida State League hasn’t been kind to him. He’s hitting .223/.271/.279 with more than five times as many strikeouts (36) as walks (7). He’s been caught stealing five of the 15 times he’s run and he’s still struggling to find the gaps (8 XBH), much less clear the fences. He’s supposed to be a wiz on the field, but we’ll never get to see it if he keeps hitting like this. Beware the shortstop of the future.

Coming into the season, I wondered if Hernan Perez might have been the better choice for that now dubious title. He was just 18 last year and the Tigers decided to challenge him with assignments in West Michigan and Lakeland. He didn’t exactly run with the chance at the plate, but I viewed the assignments as confidence in his abilities. That confidence seemed to be affirmed by his assignment this year as the West Michigan Whitecaps’ starting shortstop. That’s a tough gig for a 19-year old and Perez seems to be finding out just how tough.

He’s hitting .259/.280/.304 with five walks and 35 strikeouts. He has only five extra base hits in 165 plate appearances and he’s made ten errors at this early stage of the season. You can’t write a kid this young at this level off because of bad numbers, but I feel pretty safe in saying the Tigers probably hoped for a little more than these early returns.

Can we turn to last year’s draft picks? Their 20th round pick, Jimmy Gulliver, struggled mightily in Oneonta and their fourth round pick, Eddie Gomez, sounds like an unlikely bet to stay at shortstop. The highest profile shortstop from the draft was Daniel Fields and he’s already moved to center field. At this point, we may have to hope for growth from some of the newly signed Latino players.

Conclusion

At catcher and second base, the Tigers at least had Alex Avila and Scott Sizemore, who are decent bets to make the system’s teaspoon deep talent at their positions seem less dire. At shortstop, there just doesn’t seem to be anybody we can latch such hopes onto. Everett is almost certainly gone after the season, if he makes it that long. Santiago is already 30 and the Tigers’ thoughts on his optimal role seem clear.

Boring down into the system, it’s looking like the best they can hope for from their current crop is a player like Everett who serves a purpose but is deeply, perhaps prohibitively, flawed. We may have found the Tigers’ number one priority when they’re using the money from all those expiring contracts to build their 2011 squad.

*Note: Some of the numbers given are going to be from before the games on May 25 and some are from after. I don’t think the lack of absolute accuracy is relevant to the discussion, though, so I’m letting it go.