Where to Put Them: West Michigan Starters E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Wednesday, 25 February 2009 19:16
As we wrap up the Where to Put Them series with the West Michigan starters, we find one of the more difficult assignments of all the positions. There are no less than a dozen pitchers I could easily see having a claim on a spot in the West Michigan rotation. There are guys who pitched in West Michigan last year, but didn't dominate. There are others who pitched well enough in Oneonta to expect a promotion. Then there are some more who were injured last season and are going to need to make up for lost time. Finally, you have a few who have already been mentioned who may not be placed at the higher levels like I thought.

Let's not think about that last group, though. Let's start with the players who were injured last year and I could see earning a spot in this rotation. They are Casey Crosby (injured most of the season, anyway), Charlie Furbush, Gary Perinar and Luke Putkonen. Interestingly, those are four draft picks from 2007. Not only are they four draft picks from 2007, Putkonen, Furbush and Crosby were consecutive picks starting with the third round. Gary Perinar didn't come until later, but you still hope to get good talent from an eleventh round pick, when he was selected. So you can see why Dombrowski was recently quoted as saying this spring is almost like having the talent infusion of two drafts.

The biggest dose of that infusion is expected to come from Casey Crosby. He got a $750,000 bonus for his ability to throw in the mid 90s with his left arm, and you can bet the Tigers are anxious to start to get some return on investment. Charlie Furbush may not be as talented, but he's the most accomplished of the group as a professional. After he was drafted in 2007, he had some success in West Michigan showing a decent fastball, offspeed pitches that got swings and misses and pretty good control. I could see him starting in Lakeland, but I'm not certain he's going to be 100% healthy when the season starts. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers let him get his legs back under him at West Michigan.

As for Putkonen and Perinar, it's hard to know what the Tigers have in these two. Perinar is 23 and has all of two-thirds of a professional inning under his belt, and was more successful as a reliever in college. With his missed time, though, I could see the Tigers giving him starts to see how he develops. Putkonen has put in a little more time than Perinar, but he still only pitched 24 innings in Oneonta last season. He did so with some success, but I feel safe betting this will be the first season he's given a shot at the full season level. He's supposed to have a low 90s fastball and a slider with some promise. It'd be nice to see him add some depth to the Tigers' starting pitching ranks.

The next batch of pitchers is the group of guys who struggled a bit in West Michigan this past season. This group includes Brandon Hamilton, Matt Hoffman and Manny Miguelez. Miguelez was the only one of this group who was allowed to tough it out in West Michigan, but he also was the least disastrous of the three. His final numbers just didn't come out all that pretty with just 86 strikeouts compared to 55 walks. For Hamilton and Hoffman on the other hand, it was much uglier.

Hamilton started off the season as tough to hit but struggling to find the strike zone. Then the strikeouts stopped coming and he started getting tagged. When he was sent back to Florida to figure things out, he had 28 walks in 32 innings. It wasn't much better for Matt Hoffman in his time at West Michigan. He picked up just shy of 16 innings there and walked 14. At least he also struck out 20.

His time in West Michigan was short lived, however, and once he got to Oneonta things got a little better. He wasn't great, but he's a talented pitcher and I would be surprised if the Tigers didn't give him another shot at the Midwest League this season.

That brings us to the last group, the guys who were regular Oneonta starters last season: Darwin De Leon, Trevor Feeney and Mark Sorensen. Sorensen was roughed up a bit in his pro debut, giving up 77 hits in 59 innings. But he had a 3:1 K-to-BB ratio (39:13, to be exact) and got a good number of grounders. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt for that.

Trevor Feeney doesn't need you to squint and tilt your head to see the good in his 2008 season. He gave up less hits (69) than innings pitched (72) and did a good job of controlling the strike zone at the same time (64 Ks to 21 walks). I don't think Feeney has lights out stuff, but he clearly knows how to pitch. If he doesn't make the West Michigan rotation, it will because some of the higher ceiling guys squeezed him out.

One of those pitchers may be Darwin De Leon. He didn't pitch all that well in Oneonta last season (30 walks, 42 Ks in 55.2 IP), but he was a stud the previous season in the DSL and he's supposed to be talented. He's also 23, so if the Tigers believe they have something here they are going to need to see it pretty soon. Edit: This was the result of bad typing and late night posting, I suppose. My spreadsheet had him as born in '85 and for some reason it didn't click that he's not that old. I'd bet that chance will come in West Michigan.

That's ten pitchers we've discussed and I suppose you could probably make an argument for some others who may have a shot at this rotation. I'm going to stop here, however, because I think we've mentioned the five who will get the jobs. Assuming Furbush starts the season in extended spring training getting ready for a long season, I'm going to say the five will be Casey Crosby, Luke Putkonen, Brandon Hamilton, Matt Hoffman and Darwin De Leon. I could easily see Feeney pushing in ahead of De Leon if he shows more this spring, but I've written that rotation in ink...for now.

Here it is again:

Casey Crosby, LHP
Luke Putkonen, RHP
Brandon Hamilton, RHP
Matt Hoffman, LHP
Darwin De Leon, LHP


This is it for the Where to Put Them series. I know some will be disappointed I'm not going to place some of the relievers everybody is talking about, but I think trying to fill out minor league bullpens is a fool's errand and it would take me the next couple weeks to get the four squads completed. I'd rather start focusing on what's going on in spring training as the real games start up. I hope you've enjoyed this series. It's both fun and helpful for me as I try to wrap my head around the decisions the Tigers will have to make with their prospects. 
 
Where to Put Them: Lakeland Starting Pitchers E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Friday, 20 February 2009 15:43
As we move down the organizational ladder, it gets increasingly difficult to figure out who may be filling out the rotations. Not only do you have to consider mistakes you may have had at the higher levels, there are far more pitchers to choose from at the lower levels.

But working with the assumption I've guessed correctly at Toledo and Erie, I'm going to keep plugging and try for the Lakeland rotation. First, we have Duane Below. I don't really see him bumping the players we discussed being in the Erie rotation, and his last season wasn't so awful I can imagine the Tigers just cutting bait. After all, the guy was the organization's pitcher of the year the year before last.

His main problem last year was his walks and that's concerning. They were a bit of a problem even in 2007 (when he was winning that pitcher of the year award) and I had expressed concern that perhaps his way of avoiding the tougher bats in the league had been to not throw them strikes. Now he's moved up a level and he's walking more than a batter every other inning and giving up another hit per inning.

That's not going to work, and it gives me real doubts about his ability to succeed at the upper levels. The good news is his strikeouts still came at a reasonably good rate, so maybe some added confidence will help him improve in '09.

Next we have Below's successor as the Tigers' minor league pitcher of the year, Jon Kibler. The good news for Kibler when you compare him further to Below is his 2008 season was much better than Below's 2007. It also helps that Kibler has not only better control, but better stuff. Not great stuff. Not even good enough to get him noticed for prospect lists in a weak system.

I still have a feeling he could earn some extra notice this season, and I suppose that could start with his beginning the spring with the big club. Incidentally, Jon Paul Morosi recently stated there was a good chance Kibler could start this season in Erie. I'll believe it when I see it, but the idea is out there now.

I feel it gets more difficult after those two, but I'd imagine Lauren Gagnier is still a pretty easy call. He had a pretty bizarre 2008 campaign that saw him pick up starts for each of the four full season clubs. The unfortunate part is he was really only successful in West Michigan and you have to look past a 1-8 record to see even that. Still, he's 24 and I seriously doubt he goes to West Michigan a third time so we'll stick him in this rotation as well.

That leaves us with just two spots and a gaggle of candidates. We'll start with guys who had a number of starts in West Michigan last year. Mauricio Robles, Manny Miguelez, Thad Weber, Ramon Garcia, Andrew Hess and Paul Nardozzi all fit that description. Add to them guys like Luke Putkonen and Charlie Furbush who were hurt last season but have the stuff and are perhaps mature enough to be given a shot in Lakeland. Finally, if Tata is going to pitch this season I could them starting slowly with him until he proves he can hit the strike zone.

Like I said, it can be complicated at the lower levels. Still, I think we can trim some guys from consideration. Ramon Garcia barely started once he was promoted to Lakeland last season and when he did, it wasn't pretty. I also think Andrew Hess is probably a better bet for relief, and while Nardozzi had some success with the Caps as a starter he ended the season back in the bullpen.

That cuts last year's Caps down to Miguelez, Weber and Robles. Now I'm going to remove Putkonen and Furbush from the equation as well. They're both coming back from Tommy John and I'm skeptical of either being placed at a level higher than they've ever been with that being true. You know what? No Tata, either. I really think Lakeland could be where he lands if he's healthy, but there's so many variables with his control and health I'm just going to leave him out. Besides, it would feel like a rehab assignment if he was in Lakeland and that's no fun for this exercise.

Now that we're left with who I see as the most likely candidates, let's look at each or Robles, Miguelez and Weber. Weber was impressive after coming out of the draft as the Tigers' 16th pick. He made a pit stop in the GCL and took to the Midwest League immediately. In 56.1 innings, he struck out 49, walked 11 and gave up just 46 hits and 3 homers. That was good for a 2.56 ERA and with him being another 24 year old, I like the idea of them seeing what they have here.

Between Robles and Miguelez, I'm going to go with Robles. I know he has a live arm, and as long as he figures out how to throw strikes to lefties (in 23 innings vs. lefties, he had 21 walks) I think he's the safer pick to move up between him and Miguelez. Something else interesting about Robles last year was his home and away splits.

At home, he gave up one earned run and 24 hits in 51 innings while striking out 42 and walking 15. On the road, he gave up 26 earned runs, 30 hits and 39 walks in just over 40 innings while striking out 37. That's an absurd split and I'm anxious to see this season to make sure it was just bizarre luck. One thing you may notice even in those ugly road numbers is Robles' problems - when he has them - come more from control than getting hit around.

Even with the struggles, hitters batted just .176 against him last season. Like with the home/road splits it will be interesting to see if that's a fluke or if there's something about him that keeps hitters on their heels.

Let's not forget about Miguelez, though. Robles is young enough - turns 20 in a couple weeks - the Tigers could say there's no harm in letting him find the strike zone down in West Michigan. The problems with Miguelez, however, is he didn't have a real easy time finding the strike zone all the time either. He walked 55 in 123 innings and with just 86 Ks, didn't miss a lot of bats either.

That's concerning, but in his favor is an ability to get bucket loads of grounders. Firstinning.com had his ground ball rate at 59% last season and was among the tops in the league. If the Tigers don't see Robles as ready for Hi A ball, I could see them letting Miguelez see if he can translate that ground ball rate to a higher level.  

Okay, we're well over 1,000 words at this point so I think we've probably heard enough about one possible Lakeland rotation. For the readers who like to skip to dessert, here they are again for easy reference:

Duane Below, LH
Jon Kibler, LH
Lauren Gagnier, RH
Thad Weber, RH
Mauricio Robles, LH
 
My (one time) thoughts on (this round of) steroids E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Tuesday, 17 February 2009 12:06

I am going to stray from my usual topic. I don't often do this, but part of the fun of having a voice in a medium such as this is being able to talk about whatever you want from time to time. Unfortunately, I hate - and I mean hate - the topic I am branching off into. Steroids. If you're like me, and are sick of the topic, this may be the last sentence of this post you read.

And trust me. It's not something I want to be talking about at this point and it pisses me off that when the season should be at its most optimistic we're dredging through this muck. However, with all that's being said as Alex Rodriguez tries to save his legacy as a player, I don't know that I've come across somebody else stating the perfect expression of my thoughts on the matter. You might think it's a tall order to expect somebody - most sportswriters, especially - to perfectly express my opinion on some matter having to do with baseball. But most of the time if I look around enough, somebody is saying pretty much what I'm thinking.

It's not all that surprising if you think about it. There are only so many views you can have on most things we discuss in baseball. A trade was either a good idea or a bad idea, and there are only so many rationales you can come up with for being on one side or the other. An ump's call was either right or wrong. But getting back to the point, I don't know that I've heard my thoughts out there yet, so I'm going to reluctantly put them down.

To be honest, Joe Posnanski captures a lot of the internal back and forth I do on steroids in this post. Like him, I've not taken a hard stance one way or the other. I'm not really able to get all frothy at the mouth because a bunch of guys wanted to be better at what they see as their jobs. I don't know precisely how the users should be treated and I certainly don't know how to make sure the game is clean.

Here's what I do know, though. Steroids have not tainted my love of this game one bit. Do you know why that is? Steroids are a problem limited to the players of the game. Don't take that to mean only the players are to blame. Far from it. What I mean is, the fact that the players are in some way enhancing their performance doesn't change the game itself. Sure, it can change the way the action takes place on the field but a double play still looks the same and it's still exciting when a line drive scoots between the outfielders and everybody starts thinking, "triple".

Take baseball in the height of the steroids era and put that game film next to a game in the 70s or 80s. There's a pretty good chance the only differences you will notice are aesthetic and maybe the use of the bullpen. If there was any impact on the game from steroids, it's not something you could see in single games. They were differences that piled up over the course of seasons and careers. Maybe you can tell the difference when a game has 0.2 more home runs on average than in the previous season but I know I can't. 

I suppose that's where I differ from so many other baseball fans. For me, it's just the game and I'm grateful to the players only in that they make the game what it is. I think that's why, as much as I love baseball, it's never had any of my heroes. It's like baseball is my favorite movie, and my favorite movie doesn't necessarily have my favorite actors. More specifically, Star Wars may be your favorite movie but I sure as hell hope nobody in it is your favorite actor. (Oh, and if you're thinking "Harrison Ford", come on. Have you seen the movies the guy's been doing for the past fifteen years?)

This point always comes home for me when somebody asks me who my favorite all-time Tiger is. I always kind of stumble over the question and realize I don't really have one. I suppose at one time it was Lou Whitaker and at another it was Alan Trammell. Recently it's been Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander, but even with those guys there's not a strong feeling of "favorite". They're just Tigers who give or gave the team the best chance of continued success. I love the Tigers. Period.

I think that distance from the players is why the steroid problem doesn't bother me as much as it does some. Now please don't mistake this for a template on how anybody else should think about steroids or the game. I realize for a lot of people baseball is about the heroes the game makes and the records they break to achieve that status. That view of the game is no less valid than what I've voiced here. I also don't think there's anything wrong with getting fired up about players using steroids or being repulsed at the commissioner acting like he's a duped victim in all of this.

I'm just putting another voice out there on this tired topic. If somebody out there is changing the topic of their next blog post because I've hit on what they wanted to say, I'm a very happy writer and reader because of it. Now, my promise to you is you won't hear from me on this topic again until it somehow ties in with the Tigers and their prospects.

 
Where to Put Them: Erie Starting Pitchers E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Saturday, 14 February 2009 07:07
A few days ago I gave a rundown of what I believed were the possibilities for the Toledo rotation. Barring what I would consider surprises, it was less than inspiring. Sure, you have guys like Eddie Bonine and Chris Lambert who could do fine filling in as one of the regulars go through a stint on the 15-day DL. But let's be honest. If that fifth starter starts struggling, the pressure to be replaced isn't likely to be coming from Toledo. It would more likely be from the Tigers exploring trades or turning to some of their more talented pitchers down further in the system.

That brings us to the good news and today's post. Erie's rotation should have a least a couple guys whose continued success will point to good things for the Tigers' future. Obviously, the most publicized pitcher in the system is Rick Porcello and I expect him to be one of those pitchers in Erie.

There was some stir when Dombrowski apparently had a quote about him being in the running for that fifth starter spot. However, how good would Porcello have to look in spring training to make the Tigers put one of Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis in the pen and trade the other when they have close to zero value on the market? I'd imagine he'd have to be pretty good and that doesn't even take into consideration the fact he only threw 125 innings last season.

Teams usually try to avoid drastic workload increases for their young arms and Porcello stepping into the major league rotation would likely come with an escalation of fifty or sixty innings from last year. Considering he also topped out at 75 pitches per game last season, it would also come with an even bigger jump in pitches thrown. No, if they stick him in Erie he can build up his arm endurance, punch in for 150 or 160 innings, get a couple spot starts in Detroit if he earns them and be ready to step in for 2010. If I were ranking my 2009 predictions in order of confidence, that one would be very, very high on the list. Right below the Tigers will win more than sixty games.

There's no big surprise in saying Porcello will spend the better part of this season in Erie, though. Who else in the rotation will make us want to add Erie's box scores to our favorites? Well, one of my personal favorites is Luis Marte. If he's ready to go when the season opens, Erie would seem like the most reasonable spot for him to land. He blew through Lakeland last season and had some struggles in Erie that seemed to coincide with injury problems. I'd imagine the Tigers will want to find out if he's going to be able to cut it in the upper levels since they will likely need to put him on the 40-man to keep him beyond this season.

Some people would probably argue Marte should only be mentioned after a pitcher who is on the 40-man roster already, Alfredo Figaro. That may be a reasonable argument, but I'm less confident Figaro will be in the Erie rotation than I am about Marte. After dominating last season in West Michigan, he ran into some problems in Lakeland.

Here's the thing, though. A lot of the bad results in Lakeland come from two things - his time out of the bullpen and bad luck on balls in play. When he came in as a reliever, he had problems with walking guys (minorleaguesplits.com has him at five walks in four innings). When he was a starter, his peripherals were good but he gave up an inordinate number of hits on balls in play (a .390 BABIP according to the same website).

Combine that information, him being 24 and taking up a spot on the 40-man already, and I could definitely see where the Tigers would want to see what he can do in Double A ball. Of course, I can just as easily see him not overwhelming in spring training and seeming like a better fit for Lakeland early in the season.

Something else that could come into play for Figaro are the other candidates for the Erie rotation. I mentioned in the Toledo discussion that Luke French seems like a good bet to get another go-around in Erie. Jonah Nickerson looks like a guy who's deserving of a promotion, and I have only one of Danny Christensen and Josh Rainwater moving up to Toledo.

Now I realize Figaro's ceiling is higher than all these guys, and I'm also well aware my working theory has always been to place the top prospects first and let the others fall where they may. But this could be a situation where the best choice for Figaro between Lakeland and Erie could be almost a coin flip. Would they prefer to take a chance on challenging him in Erie if it means releasing one of these other guys because there isn't a good fit for them? I wonder. It's spring, though, and it's the time for optimism so let's say Figaro steps up and forces the Tigers to give him a shot in Erie.

That leaves the final two spots in the rotation to Luke French and Jonah Nickerson. French will just have to hope his final two months from last season, when he threw 70 innings, had an ERA of 3.34 and posted 46 Ks against 22 walks, are a better indicator of his future than his early season numbers.

The challenge for Nickerson is going to be making the tough jump from Hi A to Double A and figuring out a way to stay healthy and consistent for an entire season. In his pro career, he's been very good when he's on and something other than good when he's not. What makes the bad times more concerning is they have been accompanied by time off or a stay on the DL. This would be a great time for his shoulder to cooperate for a full season.

For easy reference, here's how I see the Erie rotation shaking out once the season begins:

Rick Porcello
Luis Marte
Alfredo Figaro
Luke French
Jonah Nickerson

That's three guys Tiger fans should take immediate interest in and two more who do a good job of filling out a staff. I may be checking to see when the SeaWolves have a weekend series in Akron. Heck, I might even make the trip east to catch them on their home turf. 
 
Where to Put Them: Toledo Starting Pitchers E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Monday, 09 February 2009 16:39
In case you're just joining us, what I do in the "Where to Put Them" series of posts is postulate on what players are going to serve as the key players on each of the Tigers' four full season minor league squads. I just completed the position players, and I've always found placing the pitchers more difficult than the position players for a couple reasons.

First, there are the guys who we can't be sure will be starters or relievers. Not only that, you have to try to consider more things that don't show up in the numbers such as whether the Tigers like a guy's stuff or if he's mature enough to handle the next level.

This year, the Tigers make it more difficult because they seem to have less sure bets for promotions. We all feel pretty certain Rick Porcello will go to Erie and it would be stunning if Jon Kibler didn't go to Lakeland. The calls get more difficult quickly after that, so let's just start at the top and see where things fall.

Two spots that don't seem particularly difficult to predict are those of Chris Lambert and Eddie Bonine. It would take a series of accidents rivaled only by Homer at the Bat to get them in the Tigers' starting rotation, but there's also no way they're taking a step back to Erie. That leaves the Mud Hens searching for three more spots to fill out their rotation, and I'm not going to write these three in ink.

Perhaps the Tigers realized filling these final three spots wouldn't be easy because they signed Ruddy Lugo and former Mud Hen, Ron Chiavacci. You may remember Lugo from such major league teams as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and the Oakland Athletics. Despite the major league history, he's now pushing thirty and coming off a rough season in New Orleans that saw him give up 18 homers in 134 innings with a 5.34 ERA.

I think we can say those two will be more than happy to fill in should the Tigers need them, but I also feel safe saying a spot in the Toledo rotation isn't their job to lose. The guys who will be trying to earn those spots will likely be homegrown players. Three possible candidates pitched in Erie last year, Danny Christensen, Luke French and Josh Rainwater. If Jordan Tata figures things out, he should be in the mix and if Macay McBride clears waivers I suppose his experiment as a starter could resume.

Finally, you have Rick Porcello and Luis Marte. They are your high ceiling guys whose placement will probably be dictated by their performance. Each is more talented than anybody previously mentioned, but I'm not sure there's much chance of either going to Toledo. The Tigers don't seem fond of putting blue chippers in Toledo and Marte's injury struggles will probably have him repeating at either Lakeland or Erie.

That brings us back to the three spots to be filled by three of seven pitchers we've named here. To trim the list, I'm going to delete Tata and McBride. I'm not sure Tata isn't toast as a prospect and I'm skeptical of the McBride as starter project. After all, say it's a success after McBride clears waivers in 2009. It would take him all season to prove it and then he'd likely either have to go to the pen to make the 2010 Tiger squad or clear waivers again as a more promising starter prospect. I just don't see it as likely.

That leaves us with Chiavacci, Lugo, Christensen, French and Rainwater. The lefty French is probably the best prospect of the bunch, but he got tuned up for 195 hits in 170 innings last season in Erie. He's only 23, so another season at Double A won't hurt him and if he handles it well he's not likely to be blocked from Toledo. In Rainwater and Christensen, you have two guys who were underwhelming last season at Erie and aren't going to stir your blood as prospects.

Christensen, however, had minor league free agency as an option and came back. It may come down to who has the better spring, but we'll use that as the reason he's more likely for a spot than Rainwater. That may seem silly, but so is spending too much time thinking on who's the better prospect between those two.

Whomever is chosen out of this group, I find myself rooting for a surprise. Maybe Toledo will get Porcello for some reason. Maybe McBride's experiment will continue and he'll clear waivers after missing a season to injury. If we don't see something that spices things up a bit, I see the Toledo rotation shaping up thusly:

Chris Lambert, 26
Eddie Bonine, 27
Danny Christensen, 25
Ron Chiavacci, 31
Ruddy Lugo, 28

Why did I include their ages as of Opening Day? Because I thought it was interesting this Toledo rotation would be older than the Tigers' rotation of...

Verlander, 26
Bonderman, 26
Jackson, 25
Galarraga, 27

...regardless of who fills that fifth spot. See why that doesn't get me jazzed up as a Hens fan? That's okay, though. I think we'll like what we'll see in Erie much better. 
 
Looking at Last Year's Top Tiger Position Prospects E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Friday, 06 February 2009 02:13
I'm kind of holding off on digging into the pitching assignments. One reason is I'd like to wait until the Tigers' Media Guide comes out if possible, but another is it's a big honkin' project to guess not only where pitchers will be but whether they'll be starting or relieving. There's also the problem of figuring out how to split up the posts so each one isn't a dissertation.

In the meantime, I figured this would be as good a time as any to take a break and look at my similar offseason posts from last season. It was a little different last year because my intention was to do five posts on each position covering: best prospect, exciting prospects, recent draftees, minor league veteran and the placement of the prospects. It wasn't possible to get five posts at each position, but there was still plenty to go back and look at to see if I was particularly sage with any predictions. Or if there were any howlers.

Catcher:

Top prospect:
James Skelton. Considering Dusty Ryan broke out this past season and Alex Avila hadn't been drafted yet, this was an easy one.
Exciting prospects: Jordan Newton and Joe Bowen. This wasn't my prognostication skills at their best.

First Base:

Top prospect:
Jeff Larish. This is still the case. I was just a little higher on him last year because the Tigers didn't have Cabrera and I hadn't seen his ugly swing.
Exciting prospects: None. I stopped myself from calling Ryans Roberson and Strieby exciting but did predict each would show big improvements in 2008.

Second Base:

Top prospect:
Scott Sizemore. I didn't really make any strong statements about Sizemore.
Exciting prospect:
Justin Henry. Again, I pretty much just reported on what he was and didn't really do a lot of forecasting.

Third Base:

Top prospect:
Abstained.
Exciting prospects: Abstained. Third basemen clearly present a challenge to the Tigers' scouting and development.

Shortstop:

Top Prospect:
Danny Worth. I gave him the nod over Hollimon because of age and his apparent ability to stick at shortstop because of his defense.
Exciting prospects: Mike Hollimon and Cale Iorg. I was skeptical of Iorg, but it was hard not to be excited after he got a bonus worthy of a first rounder.

Outfield:

Top prospect:
Cameron Maybin. A week after I named him he had been turned into Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.
Exciting prospects: Deik Scram, Matt Joyce, Mike Hernandez and Alexis Espinoza. At least I was right to be excited about Joyce and it was pretty cool that Mike Hernandez was used to snag Armando Galarraga. He was only included, however, because he had been an undrafted player. As for Scram and Espinoza, they didn't help their cases in 2008. I probably got a little too excited about the season Scram had between West Michigan and Lakeland considering he was 23. Espinoza is still young enough to where he could overcome a rough first year in the States.

Overall, not a bad job I suppose. The top prospects who are still in the system either held serve or improved their stock last season in my opinion. The "exciting" guys had a lot more misses, but nothing that will cost me readers, I don't think. I hope you enjoyed this somewhat self-indulgent attempt to affirm my credibility, but I just like to hold myself accountable for past posts from time to time. 
 
Where to Put Them: Tiger Outfielders E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Saturday, 31 January 2009 07:23
Before we start looking at the potential outfielders for the Tigers' four full season teams, we have to give a little more consideration to the big league situation. This is true because unlike most of the positions we've covered to this point, the outfield isn't as set for the big league squad. Sure, we know Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen will be starting out there on normal days but there is going to be at least one bench spot.

Let's think about the situation for a minute. The Tigers figure to have four bench spots, one of which will be Matt Treanor. Ramon Santiago will fill another, and unless they trade him Marcus Thames will fill the third spot.

That leaves just one spot open for the likes of Jeff Larish, Brent Clevlen, Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn. When you think of who the Tigers might select of that group, you have to consider they are likely to want or need a lefty bat (Larish and Thomas), good outfield defense (Clevlen and Thomas) and a possible backup at first and third (Larish and Raburn). Those are all things their current backups don't really provide, since I doubt they view Santiago's lefty bat as an asset off the bench.

Thinking of things that way, I think it comes down to what assets the Tigers view as most important and whether they view what Larish, Thomas or Raburn bring to the bench as more important than keeping Clevlen. However, this isn't an article about the Tigers' roster so let's stay with my earlier assumption they choose Larish. I think the Tigers will view his bat off the bench as more valuable than the rare defensive upgrade they would get from Clevlen or Thomas in the outfield.

If that happens, they are likely to lose Brent Clevlen to waivers but I would suspect a trade would be made before it got to that point. I've already seen rumors the Tigers are looking at that option. That would also mean Ryan Raburn and Clete Thomas would be sent down to Toledo. In that instance, Thomas is your starting center fielder and Raburn will probably float around the various outfield positions, play some DH and maybe get some infield time to keep him sharp.

I'm not going to count Raburn as a starter for two reasons, though. I think he'll float around the field as long as he's on the squad and I think he'll be among the first players called up in the event of an injury. That means the Tigers will need a couple players to bookend the outfield next to Thomas. Wilkin Ramirez and Casper Wells are obvious candidates considering they both did so well in Erie last season and they're both on the 40-man roster. Then again, the Tigers brought in Alexis Gomez, Timo Perez and Bronson Sardinha to fight for the spot and I'm sure Jeff Frazier would like to try his hand in Fifth Third.

Let's be honest, though. If Wilkin Ramirez and Casper Wells aren't on the Toledo squad to open the season, it's because the Tigers didn't think they earned the assignment. If they are on the Toledo squad, it will be as starters. After all, why would you have them giving up time to guys whose time has either passed or never really came?

That takes us down to Erie. I'd imagine Bronson Sardinha and Jeff Frazier will both be in that mix as guys left out of the Toledo lineup, but I also doubt they'll both be starters. I would look for one of the jobs to go to Deik Scram again. The Tigers like their "dirt dogs" or "dirtbags" or whatever they call them, and Scram has been identified as such. The Tigers don't seem to view him as a center fielder, though, and since Sardinha and Frazier aren't either they'll need somebody to fill that role.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that job goes to Kyle Peter. I'm going with Peter for a couple reasons. First, he gives them a legitimate center fielder. I'm not sure they get from their other options, who could be viewed as Scram, Sardinha, Frazier, Brennan Boesch, Jeramy Laster and their free agent pickup during the offseason, Beau Torbert. Laster played center field for Lakeland last season, but after his 200 strikeout season I'm not sure he's ready for a promotion. Secondly, the Tigers seem to like challenging certain players with the jump from West Michigan to Erie and since Peter spent the season in Hawaii, he seems like a reasonable choice for making it this year.

With my surprise selection out of the way, they're left with just one starter spot remaining. I'm going to go ahead and say they give that spot to Boesch. He didn't necessarily earn the promotion, but he had some hot streaks last season and I could see this being his sink or swim season. He's going to be 24 this season and after getting selected early in the 2006 draft and impressing in Oneonta, he's been a disappointment the last couple seasons.

I should reiterate at this point I'm talking about who I view as likely to be starters. I haven't named a guy like Torbert to one of those roles, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be a bench player for the SeaWolves. To be honest, he is probably just as likely to be a starter as Boesch. The same might be said of Sardinha and Frazier.

Looking at Lakeland, I see about five candidates for the starting outfield jobs available. Just for the sake of completeness, I would say Peter is certainly in the running. My suggestion he will be double promoted is just a hunch, and he's probably more likely to start in Lakeland. But sticking to my guns that leaves Laster, Andrew Dirks, Kody Kaiser and Jordan Newton.

Kaiser seems like a slam dunk since he hit well at West Michigan, and I am adding Dirks to that mix because I get the feeling the Tigers like him. Plus he's 23, he spent time at West Michigan last season and it would have been more had he not broken his hand. In Laster and Newton, I see two more players the Tigers could be losing patience with.

Laster has shown he can't make consistent contact and I'm not sure Newton will hit enough to play a corner outfield spot. I'm going to pencil both in as likely teammates in Lakeland, but Laster would be more likely to be a starter.

Finally, we come to West Michigan. There are a lot of candidates for this job as well, but I'm going to cut right to the chase and pick my three starters for this squad. I'm hoping the Caps will get a nice mix of polished college players and young promise, so I'm going to guess Ben Guez, Brent Wyatt and Luis Salas are the most regular outfield starters.

Guez held his own as Oneonta's everyday center fielder in 2008. Luis Salas handled himself very well as a 19-year old splitting time between the GCL and the Florida State League. As for Wyatt, at 24, he's probably next year's most likely player to jump from West Michigan to Erie if he hits well enough. I also can't help but feel that between him and Dirks, I might be getting their 2009 roles reversed.

As you no doubt noticed, since we're dealing with three times the positions, this post got long quickly. So, here's the recap of my guesses at each starting job for the outfield (going left, center, right as a bonus prediction):

Toledo: Ramirez, Thomas, Wells
Erie: Scram, Peter, Boesch
Lakeland: Dirks, Laster, Kaiser
West Michigan: Wyatt, Guez, Salas

The depth at this position falls apart quickly, but that doesn't mean there aren't interesting players to watch in the lower levels. Peter will be worth keeping an eye on regardless of where he is and if I nailed that West Michigan outfield, I would watch that combo closely as well. If you're like the Tigers and you dig the dirt dogs - a clever way of avoiding calling them "scrappy" - Scram, Dirks and Kaiser sound like your type of player as well. 
 
Where to Put Them: Tiger Third Basemen E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Thursday, 29 January 2009 14:23
Okay, I think I've put off doing the third basemen long enough. I need to just peel this bandage off quickly.

Of the third basemen who will serve as starters for the Tigers' four full season teams this season, the Mud Hens' would appear to be the easiest to predict. After all, it looks like it's going to be the same guy it's been since 2005 - Mike Hessman. The big bat who can pick it at the hot corner will likely head back to Toledo this season as long as he doesn't get scooped up on waivers when the Tigers send him down.

I'd just like to point out Hessman was even better in 2008 than he was in 2007 - when he won the International League's MVP award. He had more homers - 34 to 31 - in less games (had to go to the Olympics, after all), a better batting average (.271 to .254), a better on-base percentage (.374 to .356) and a much better slugging percentage (.602 to .540). It was a heckuva season and it's almost too bad he went to Beijing or he might have flirted with 40 dingers. Before we move on, I should mention that if Jeff Larish is sent to Toledo he will probably switch positions with Hessman from time to time.

I'm not as certain about who will be Erie's starting third baseman, but Santo De Leon looks to be a good bet. He was serving as the starter at Lakeland last year until Kody Kirkland was called up to Toledo, which is when De Leon was called up to Lakeland and hit pretty well (.278/.305/.479). In fact, he hit better for Erie than he ever had as a pro. Double A is probably as far as it goes for De Leon, though. He's only walked 32 times in 1,230 pro plate appearances. That means his 7 walks in 178 Erie plate appearances was about fifty percent better than his career rate.

A guy who might feel like he should be in the running for that third base job in Erie is Mike Bertram. The past two seasons he's been in a time sharing situation with Santo De Leon and he's hit better in both situations. It would appear Bertram's problem is his defense, though, because despite being the left-handed bat of those two De Leon was always the one to get more time. De Leon moving up may finally give Bertram a shot at a starting gig.

It's still not a given, though. Ronnie Bourquin spent last season in West Michigan and even though it wasn't a rousing success (.235/.339/.315) he may get the nod over Bertram since he could be seen as having higher upside. The alarming thing for Bourquin is despite the feather light bat he's shown as a pro, he's slowly been transitioned to first base. When you're in the current system and can't keep a job as a third baseman, it's time to bear down or start cashing in favors as you look for another job.

Of course, even if Bertram beats out Bourquin for the job he may have to worry about Audy Ciriaco testing his chops at the hot corner. As I mentioned when discussing the shortstops, a move to third keeps getting brought up when Ciriaco's name is mentioned.

Once you get below Lakeland, it gets particularly messy. I suppose they could give Bourquin another shot down there, but of the players who manned the position in the GCL and Oneonta the two main guys were Brett Anderson and Bryan Pounds. They're not going to move the very young and hopefully very raw Anderson up to a full season league after he hit .178/.205/.203 for the GCL Tigers. That would leave Bryan Pounds as the favorite for the job, but his performance in Oneonta - .217/.290/.312 - doesn't really suggest he's a lock, either.

The only other possibility I see, though, is Roger Tomas. He filled in at third for Bourquin last season quite a bit, and actually hit pretty well. He's an undrafted player, though, and I'd imagine his future will consist of more work as a stand-in wherever the Tigers need him in the infield of one of their A ball teams.

I know it's not going to happen, but I wish Francisco Martinez would get the job just so there could be some excitement at this position in 2009. Barring that coup - which goes against my assumption that guys who are spending their first year in the domestic leagues won't start the season in a full season league - we'll have to hope for a breakout from somebody mentioned or a position change for Ciriaco (and a breakout). Otherwise we'll just have to hope this group plays sound enough defense to not hurt the pitchers' performances.

It's likely to be another ugly year at this position, but here are my predictions for third base:

Toledo: Mike Hessman
Erie: Santo De Leon
Lakeland: Mike Bertram
West Michigan: Bryan Pounds
 
Where to Put Them: Tiger Shortstops E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Sunday, 25 January 2009 08:58
If you've been following this series, you know the drill. I try to figure out who's going to be the starter for each of the Tigers' four full season squads. My working theory is the Tigers place their top prospects first and then work from there. I also assume players coming from the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues won't open the season as a starter in one of the full season leagues.

With that brief intro out of the way, we'll get down to the shortstops. If you've been following what the Tigers have been saying about their farm system, you should be well aware they consider Cale Iorg their top prospect at this position. Dave Dombrowski said early in the offseason that Iorg was going to be an All Star, and sooner than we think. That's not something you say about a guy who's about to repeat at the same level, so I feel pretty comfortable in saying Iorg will be the starting shortstop when the SeaWolves start their season.

With that assignment as almost a given, it makes things a little interesting in Toledo. First of all, you have Erie's starting shortstop from last year, Danny Worth. He seems to be another player the Tigers like, but a cyst in his shoulder cut his season short in July. With the Tigers having so many eligible candidates for the Toledo starting job, the injury usually would make me think he'd start the season back in Erie. Cale Iorg, however, makes that very unlikely. Since he had been promoted to Toledo right before his season was cut short, I feel pretty comfortable naming him as the team's likely shortstop as long as he's fully healed.

There are questions that come from that. The Tigers are also going to have Brent Dlugach and Don Kelly in camp competing for shortstop or middle infield jobs for either Toledo or Erie. Not only that, but Mike Hollimon was reported in this story to be coming along more quickly than expected from surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. If he's ready to go when the season opens, what do the Tigers do with him?

Let's take a step back and look at what we're dealing with. It would seem Will Rhymes is likely to be Toledo's second baseman while Danny Worth will man shortstop. In Erie, my guess is Scott Sizemore and Cale Iorg up the middle. You're probably aware of those four being thought of as some of the Tigers' top positional prospects. If that's the case, how are they going to work in a solid gloveman like Dlugach and a guy who would probably have a major league job if he had been healthy this offseason, Mike Hollimon?

I think, assuming everybody is healthy, Hollimon goes to Toledo and Dlugach goes to Erie. Larry Parrish has proven to be pretty adept at cycling players in when he has more players than spots and I think he will be able to get a nice rotation going that gets Rhymes, Worth and Hollimon a good amount of playing time. I'll be curious to see if that rotation will involve trying guys at new positions. Hollimon has been known to venture out into the outfield. Maybe we'll see a little bit of that this year, but the key will be having him ready in case Polanco or Everett go down for any length of time with an injury. Because I suspect he is the first callup if someone is needed, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up starting more often than Rhymes.

My theory will have a similar situation down in Erie. The difference is getting Dlugach playing time seems much less pressing than Hollimon in Toledo. With Hollimon, you can make the argument he's viewed as the better prospect between him and Rhymes. I don't think a similar argument can be made with Dlugach compared to Sizemore or Iorg. Dlugach, after all, is going to be 26 soon. He's missed most of the last two seasons and he's had limited success at the plate in his pro career. My guess is that would mean he'll be slotted into one of the middle infield positions a couple times a week until roster moves allow him to go to Toledo.

You may have noticed I mentioned Don Kelly as battling for a job, but he's absent from any further discussion. That's not an oversight. I just don't see the Tigers opting for him as a 29-year old over any of the other players being discussed. The only way I see him getting a job is if the Tigers want more regular time for Dlugach, slip him down to Lakeland, and slot Kelly in as a utility man in either Toledo or Erie.

That's probably more postulating about the Erie and Toledo situations than you care to put up with, so let's move to Lakeland. The first instinct is to look at last year's West Michigan shortstop and that was Audy Ciriaco. He's probably the best bet for the Lakeland shortstop job, but there are a couple issues there. First of all, he spent two seasons in West Michigan and had an OPS of .565 in 2007 and .612 in 2008. The Midwest League is tough for hitters, but not that tough.

Another issue I wonder about is the number of errors he made at the position while in West Michigan. His 24 errors in 2007 aren't all that bad, but he tallied 41 last season. We always say here at T75N not to put too much stock into errors when talking about defensive ability, but there is still an amount that gives you pause and that amount is a number less than 41.

What I'm getting at is I wonder if Ciriaco's struggles and his size will make him a candidate for third base rather than shortstop. It's an idea I've heard tossed around by various other prospect watchers, and with the Tigers' lack of depth it could work for everyone. Of course, a move to third puts more pressure on him to pick up production at the plate but that's a discussion for if and when the move is made.

Another question that opens up is who steps in if Ciriaco does make that move. Perhaps the most likely choice in that scenario is the move I mentioned before, Brent Dlugach. Like I said, he's missed most of the last two seasons. They could slide him in at Lakeland until he gets his legs and timing back and then have him ready to go to Erie or Toledo when an opening comes up.

If that doesn't happen, I would tend to expect a time share situation between lesser prospects. I don't think of guys like Gustavo Nunez, Adam Frost and Shawn Roof as starting Hi A shortstops but if Ciriaco slides over to third maybe the Tigers just let guys like that share the starts at shortstop.

Finally, we move down to West Michigan. With second base seemingly having more than enough candidates, I would look for Brandon Douglas to keep working as a shortstop this season. There have been doubts expressed about how well he can play the position, but as you can tell from the Lakeland discussion the Tigers aren't oozing with shortstops once you get past the upper levels. So, I'd expect Douglas to get the job with other players such as Nunez, Luis Palacios and Frost ready to step in if the opportunity presents itself.

After tossing around all those ideas, here's my final projection for how the shortstop position falls out when it's all said and done (with the assumption everybody is healthy):

Toledo: Danny Worth
Erie: Cale Iorg
Lakeland: Audy Ciriaco (Brent Dlugach)
West Michigan: Brandon Douglas

I think fans should be cautious not to confuse the logjam at the upper levels with anything like a comfortable amount of depth. It's far from a given that Worth will be able to hit enough to be a big league regular, and it's probably even more doubtful for Dlugach. Mike Hollimon isn't a shortstop unless he absolutely has to be and Cale Iorg needs to make further steps in converting his potential to results. In other words, the Tigers likely don't have a better answer at shortstop than Ramon Santiago if Adam Everett goes down. That and the lack of solid answers below Erie don't suggest a lot of depth to me.

 
Where to Put Them: Tiger Second Basemen E-mail
Written by Matt Wallace   
Tuesday, 20 January 2009 15:08
We now move on to the men who are going to man the keystone corner at each of the four full season leagues. Just to avoid any confusion that may have been caused on the section pertaining to catchers, I'm not going to be worrying about the backups at the other positions. I included the second catcher because duties tend to be split pretty evenly in the minors and there were some levels where it wasn't all that clear who would be the starter.

I suppose the problem of who's the "starter" may persist at second base when you consider the cluster of middle infielders at the upper levels. However, I'm still going to limit this exercise to who I feel will be the main starters at second base. Frankly, it's because guys who aren't starting in this system aren't all that likely to figure too heavily in the Tigers' long term plans.

As always, we'll start with the top second base prospects. When I looked at this position a little while back, I had the top three as Scott Sizemore, Mike Hollimon and Will Rhymes. With Mike Hollimon out for at least the first part of the season, it seems like a fairly easy call to slot Will Rhymes as the Toledo second baseman and Scott Sizemore in the same spot for Erie. One caveat there could be them losing a start here and there to a guy like Brent Dlugach, who may slide over to second occasionally in order to get more playing time. Whether that happens at Erie or Toledo will probably depend on what Dlugach shows the Tigers this spring.

The other thing I keep thinking about is Sizemore losing so much time to injury last season. It makes me wonder if he's a lock for the Erie lineup, but with him turning 24 a couple weeks ago I think there's a little pressure to challenge him and see what they have. Since he's already hit in major league spring training and the Arizona Fall League, I think they'll feel comfortable assigning him to Erie as long as he's fully healthy.

With the top two spots filled, we can move onto Lakeland and again, that seems like a fairly simple call. Justin Henry has held his own the past two seasons at Oneonta and West Michigan. Since he was the starter for the Whitecaps last year and he's going to turn 24 fairly early in the 2009 season, I see no reason he wouldn't move up to Lakeland. It also doesn't hurt that he has a good approach at the plate (more walks than strikeouts as a pro) and good speed on the bases (27 steals in 34 attempts last year).

That brings us to West Michigan, where the theme this year seems to be an open competition. It hasn't been all that clear who would be catching or playing first base at this level, and it doesn't look to be a gimme at second either. Alden Carrithers lit up the Gulf Coast League after he finally signed last season. Then again, Mike Gosse held his own as the starting second baseman for Oneonta. The picture doesn't get any clearer when you consider Luis Palacios had his moments last year, is younger than both of Carrithers and Gosse and spent some time playing second base.

Setting aside Palacios for the moment, though, let's compare Gosse and Carrithers because I consider them the best bets for the job. Gosse was the Tigers' 23rd round pick, turns 23 May 30th and played a full season at Oneonta. Playing second base almost exclusively, he tallied a final line of .277/.319/.346 with 16 walks and 17 strikeouts. Alden Carrithers was the 15th pick, turned 24 in November and lit up the Gulf Coast League to the tune of .316/.464/.430 in 39 games. He walked (28) more than he struck out (19) and stole 16 bases in 17 tries, but the disparity between his age and the level he was playing calls the value of these numbers into question.

I briefly thought there was a chance Carrithers could just jump up to Lakeland and be a backup, but since he played nothing but second - just like Gosse - I'm not sure he has a lot of value as a utility guy. If you're wondering, that's the reason I removed Palacios from the equation. He can always play shortstop and make a better utility man until he earns a starter's job.

Ultimately, I'm going to have to go with Gosse for the simple fact that he started there at a higher level last year. Not only that, he's more in line with where you'd expect him to be at his age. Still, this would seem to be a close call made all the more difficult by the fact that I'm not sure who profiles better on defense. Regardless, I'd bet the decision will come from who impresses this spring.

Summary of my picks:

Toledo: Will Rhymes
Erie: Scott Sizemore
Lakeland: Justin Henry
West Michigan: Mike Gosse

This is another position where the Tigers mystify me. If you go through other team's top prospects, there are very few second basemen. Yet, the Tigers - who are very shallow with their position players as a whole - are set at the position and able to go two or more deep at multiple levels. Not only that, some of their best position prospects are second basemen. I guess that's a good thing with Polanco approaching his middle 30s, in the last year of his contract and sure to be a Type A free agent next year. It would sure be nice if they could let him go and fill that hole next year cheaply and from within the system
 
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