When the Tigers traded Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Dan Schlereth I gave a heavy-hearted thumbs up on the deal. I said the deal turned on Jackson’s long-term success with the team but a big part of my reasoning was the idea that Scherzer was better than Edwin Jackson immediately. Having him for more years was gravy in my opinion. This was part of the reason Scherzer’s slow start aggravated me so much. I avoid giving definitive opinions that make it seem like I think I know what I’m talking about, and I hate it when I look stupid after having done so.

That’s why when the Tigers sent Scherzer down to Toledo after eight starts and Scherzer said he thought he had seen some things on tape he needed to work on, I was hopeful it was that simple. A tweak here and a tweak there and we’d have the Scherzer advertised in Arizona in 2009. I’m not sure anybody expected the tweaks to work out quite this well. You may have noticed that Scherzer made eight starts before he was sent down to Toledo and he’s now made eight starts since. That seems to me like a perfect time to do a comparative look. With the miraculous baseball-reference.com, this is incredibly easy to do.

In his first eight starts of the season (pre-Toledo), Scherzer’s results looked like this:

1-4, 7.29 ERA, 42 IP, 54 H, 16 BB, 26 K, 9 HR, .323/.392/.563 against

He went down to Toledo, dominated (15 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 17 K in two starts), and in his eight starts since (post-Toledo), Scherzer’s magically transformed into this:

5-2, 2.44 ERA, 51.2 IP, 39 H, 19 BB, 62 K, 4 HR, .217/.294/.328 against

I haven’t been keeping up with some of the cutting edge stats research going on, but I’m pretty sure that’s better, right? I am a fan of Bill James’ Game Score stat and if you order his first eight starts from best to worst, you get:

71, 58, 55, 36, 30, 30, 20, 4

If you order the most recent eight, you get:

77, 75, 71, 67, 65, 62, 51, 30

There's really not much you have to say about the difference in those two groupings. I will anyway, though. The median of the first group is better than all but his best start in the first group. It's just an amazing turnaround.

The nice thing about this is we’re not talking about smoke and mirrors. This improvement comes largely from a strikeout rate that has jumped from 13.8% all the way up to 30%. I’m usually skeptical of players saying their improved results are a result of Change X, but consider me a believer on this one. His velocity on the fastball has made an appreciable leap after fixing his release and all these improvements seem to have followed.

Scherzer has gone from pitching like a piece of number two to pitching like a number two starter, and only a number two because we have Verlander as a number one. I originally had the idea to go more into the differences by the numbers - talk about the change in velocity and all that in more depth - but I'm now fighting the inclination. The difference in results is so obvious I think it's better to just sit back and enjoy.

Comments (8)

Ugh
written by David Tokarz, July 08, 2010

Scherzer has gone from pitching like a piece of number two to pitching like a number two starter

Could you choose a worse pun?

But seriously, you're dead on. The mechanical changes really worked, and the added velocity on all his pitches is helping him a ton.

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written by MattinToledo, July 08, 2010

What, I can't have a little fun with words from time to time?

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written by David Tokarz, July 08, 2010

Hey, have all the fun you want. Just make it amusing for us, too.

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written by MattinToledo, July 09, 2010

Thumbs down on scatalogical references. Duly noted.

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written by stephen grosberg, July 09, 2010

What a great post!!! You caught the "why" and what he thought he could accomplish. It's a big person who will ride the buses to accomplish something that could be huge for all concerned, even us. I remember the post where you called Scherzer better than Jackson immediately. Since we now know the kind of person Scherzer really is, we might have had better insight. Bravo again.

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written by Ben B., July 12, 2010

Glad Scherzer turned it around, now we just need Porcello to as well.

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written by Ben B., July 13, 2010

Stephen, Bishop is starting to heat up!

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written by stephen grosberg, July 13, 2010

As we've seen, Rawley Bishop is a slow starter at a new level. Therefore, get him to Toledo NOW to be ready for PH in Sep. with the Tigers.I think there's a space now. If not, cut Max Leon to give Will Rhymes and Justin Henry a chance at different positions. To have Max Leon DH is a COMPLETE waste. Where're the comments on Adam Wilk and Bryan Holaday? Bishop and Holaday will become among the biggest sleepers of all. If Adam Wilk's fastball is gaining velocity, he can be added to the list. Sorry to get off the subject, but the Tigers have a chance with the right moves. Robbie Weinhardt was a HUGE start. Scherzer made his own change. Bravo. That's listening to self start. Thanks Diamondbacks. THE BEST TRADES ARE THOSE THAT ARE INITIATED BY THE OTHER TEAM. Bishop, last night, was typical of what I look for. 3 for 4, 3 RBI in a 4-2 win.

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