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As we take a look at the first basemen in the Tigers’ system, it’s important to remember how hard it’s going to be to matter as somebody in that role. Miguel Cabrera is going to be the center piece of the Tiger lineup for a long time. That fact has already forced the Tigers to try Jeff Larish and Ryan Strieby - their best first base prospects - at other positions. Let’s face it. If you’re a first base prospect in the Tigers’ system, you’d better either be young and patient or able to move a notch or two up the defensive spectrum. I suppose not being too attached to the Tiger system wouldn’t hurt either.
Toledo
Jeff Frazier
You might see Frazier’s birthdate - coming up on 28 years ago - and dismiss him as a career minor leaguer. I think the assessment is probably accurate, but I don’t want to cast aside what he’s done for the Hens this season so quickly. In his first full season in Triple A, he’s putting up numbers that are right there with the best of his career. He’s already set a career best in homers with 20 and when you throw in his 30 doubles, it’s clear he’s well on his way for setting a high water mark for extra base hits as well.
Perhaps first base suits him. This is, after all, the first time he’s spent a significant amount of time there and he’s now in his seventh season as a pro. The power he’s producing looks to be coming at a price as he’s walking less (23 BB) and striking out more (67 K) than his career norms. Still, he’s lifting the ball much more this season and the result has been a career high in isolated power (.241), dwarfing even his time in High Desert back in 2007. I don’t think he’s suddenly a candidate for the 40-man roster, but I think his contributions this season are notable.
Erie
Mike Bertram
Rawley Bishop
Bertram is currently on the disabled list with a lower back injury he aggravated the other night, but he’s been a reasonably productive hitter for the Wolves this season. He leads the team in RBIs and is second in runs, but we don’t really care about those stats here at T75N. It’s much more important that he’s struggling badly with the strike zone (25 BB and 94 K) and isn’t coming close to the amount of power he showed for the Wolves last season. My guess is he’s pushing up against his ceiling at the Double A level.
Bishop has been able to earn some attention this season. He was promoted to Lakeland from Oneonta to start this season and handled the challenge well enough to earn another in-season, hitting .301/.383/.462 in Lakeland. The production hasn’t come as easily in Erie (.253/.351/.389), but one thing that’s interesting is his walks are up and his strikeouts down since coming to Double A. That makes up for some of the power he lost in moving up to Erie, but the main thing sapping his productivity is fewer hits falling in (.394 BABIP in Lakeland, .309 so far in Erie). Bishop being able to handle this quick move to Erie reasonably well is admirable, but his age and position will make hit difficult to push through into the big leagues.
Lakeland
Jordan Lennerton
Billy Nowlin
Lennerton was promoted to Lakeland about the same time Bishop went to Erie. He’s been fine (.246/.323/.421 in 65 PA with Lakeland) but the promotion has seen Lennerton take a dip in BABIP similar to Bishop’s (.399 BABIP in W. Michigan, .300 in Lakeland). That’s made him less productive at this level despite having a similar walk rate, fewer strikeouts and more power. Of course, his time in Lakeland has been very brief so we should be careful about giving much leverage to what he’s done there so far. One thing he’s not done is lift the ball. He has a ground ball rate of 55% since moving up to Hi A, and that’s something he needs to correct. As for his long-term outlook, it seems clear to me Lennerton is a minor league first baseman whose career path will probably follow a route similar to Chris Carlson or Ryan Roberson.
Billy Nowlin would be more accurately grouped with designated hitters, but I think he’d have little company in such a post. Having that as his primary role, though, means he needs to hit the bejeezus out of the ball. It’s been surprising to me just how much bejeezus he’s left in the ball this year. He was very slow out of the gate, seeming overmatched by FSL pitchers. Then he seemed to right the ship as the season moved on. First came the walks and the power seemed to follow, leading to an excellent June. I expected the productive Nowlin to stick and be the linchpin of a second-half lineup decimated by promotions, but he seems to have hit the skids again in July. Overall, his .258/.339/.383 line with 31 walks and 58 strikeouts shows some promise but certainly nowhere near what I expected. He needs to make the necessary adjustments again, and they need to come faster if he’s going to follow his bat to higher levels.
West Michigan
Clay Jones
Tony Plagman
When I see Jones as a 36th round pick who’s playing more designated hitter than first base, I can’t help but expect him to fall in line with the first baseman I mentioned above (Lennerton, Carlson and Roberson). He’s hitting pretty well in the early going (.279/.354/.395 in 96 PA) but you can see the power hasn’t really been there. That’s probably because he is wearing out the grass in minor league infields with a 78% ground ball rate. I’m actually impressed that he’s been able to clear the fences a couple of times with fly balls being such a rarity. I have to believe that ground ball rate will come down to earth with more at bats, but it will need to come down a LOT for him to be a productive hitter.
Plagman will soon be 23, so he’s not going to make his case as a prospect in the Midwest League. Let’s not sell him short, though. He’s hit very well in his time in Grand Rapids. In 118 plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.364/.505 and his only real blemish so far is an ugly line against lefties (1 for 17, so far). That has fluke written all over it, though, so let’s accentuate the positive. He’s drawing walks, not striking out a ton and hitting for good power without an inordinate number of hits falling in. This 9th round pick out of Georgia Tech seems determined to show he won’t follow a road that leads to him petering out in Erie. I was a little surprised the Tigers took a senior first baseman as early as they did, but maybe he’ll be able to prove it was a wise pick.
Connecticut
James Robbins
We finally get to a player who’s young enough to where it’s conceivable he could play first base for the Tigers some day. He’s only 19 and it’s not too far a stretch to think that if he’s ever ready for the majors, Cabrera might be ready for a move to designated hitter. First, Robbins has to do a lot of development ahead of him. Right now, he’s in short season ball and he’s walked just five times this season while striking out 34. That’s something he’s going to need to work on, because he’s had to hit .300 this season to be productive and that’s going to be nearly impossible in the future with his current approach at the plate.
We have to remember he’s playing mostly against kids out of college, so that might explain why he’s struggling with the strike zone. There’s also a noticeable lack of power in his game so far this season. Of his 34 hits, just nine have gone for extra bases and none have been homers. That could be owed to a league and home park that are kind to pitchers. Judging by the Tigers’ springing for a six-figure bonus last August, I’m going to assume he has the skills to make some of these corrections.
GCL Tigers
Juaner Aguasvivas
Aguasvivas showed big enough power in the DSL to lead that league in home runs in 2009. Now in his first season stateside, he’s doing a pretty good job of bringing his power along as 11 of his 24 hits have gone for extra bases. That’s led to a line of .273/.333/.466 in 96 plate appearances. The fact that we know he has power is more important at this level, but I still like to see it surface come game time.
One thing he’ll have to do is figure out to keep that power while making better contact. He’s already struck out 31 times against just six walks, and much like Robbins in Connecticut, his production doesn’t really go with that profile. I certainly doubt it would hold up once he gets to the full season leagues.
First Base Overall
I think it’s pretty clear some things will need to break the Tigers’ way for this group of first basemen to be relevant at the major league level. There are a lot of guys who were never expected to contribute in the majors and the others are a long way from the majors both developmentally and in terms of their current assignment. Of course, the ones who still stand a chance of rising to that level have little chance of playing first base in Detroit as long as Cabrera is around. For the foreseeable future, any scenario that doesn’t include Cabrera means something has gone horribly wrong for the Tigers.
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