Each year I prepare for the coming season by taking a look at the Tigers’ prospects at each position. I’ve done it a number of different ways, but I think I’ll stick with the process I used last year. I looked at the top three prospects at each position and then threw in a comment or two about some “honorable mentions” I thought might be worth keeping an eye on for one reason or another.

(Ages are as of 4/1/10. I’ve added wOBA this year because it’s a comprehensive stat Fangraphs has made available for minor leaguers. Mike Rogers did a pretty good explanation of it here and you can find another one here. I dropped BABIP, but will probably mention it if it's notable one way or the other.)

Alex Avila, Erie/Detroit
23, 5’11”, 210, Bats: L

PA: 387/72
AVG: .264/.279
OBP: .365/.375
SLG: .450/.590
XBH%: 41.4/52.9
K%: 19.9/25.0
BB%: 13.4/13.9
wOBA: .371/.407

Avila was drafted in 2008 and some assumed it was an overdraft because of his father being in the front office. He responded by hitting well in the pitcher friendly Midwest League, but detractors pointed to his lack of power (14 doubles, one homer in 58 games). The Tigers believed, though, and jumped him to Erie for 2009.

He did a good job there of eliminating concerns about his power. As you can see above, a lot of his hits went for extra bases and coupling that with a good approach at the plate earned him a surprise callup. I was one of the skeptics when that move was made, but Avila again silenced non-believers. He doubled in his first game, homered in his second and had two hits in four of his first five.

He obviously cooled off from that torrid start and had sparse playing time as the season wore on, but he’s made believers of the prospect watching community. Not surprisingly since he’s been at the position for just three years, there is still work to be done on his defense. His strikeout rate in Detroit suggests some tweaks in his swing might help as well, but 2009 impressed a lot of people who saw Avila.

It will be interesting to see where a cool fall (7 for 50 in the Dominican Winter League) and a weak lineup at the major league level will put Avila. The Tigers brought Robinzon Diaz into the organization and many believe he might be the backup to Laird while Avila gets a starter’s role in Toledo. I suspect even if that happens a desire for more sock in the lineup - especially from the left side - will force the Tigers to bring him up.

Jordan Newton, West Michigan/Lakeland
24, 5’10”, 195, Bats: R

PA: 49/289
AVG: .386/.263
OBP: .438/.311
SLG: .750/.447
XBH%: 47.1/42.9
K%: 20.5/30.1
BB%: 4.5/6.0
wOBA: .523/.346

Newton is admittedly old for a prospect who has yet to see Erie. His progress has been slowed by some positional uncertainty, but he spent all of 2009 behind the plate. The fact that he worked to get back there (after playing more outfield in 2008) and spent the season hitting the ball hard in both West Michigan and Lakeland makes him intriguing.

The major detraction here is his free swinging ways. He struck out five times more often than he walked last year and that’s an ugly habit he’s had for three years now. He’s managed to be quite effective despite the poor discipline, but he’s shown better judgment in the past (19 BB, 37 K in Oneonta in 2006). It will be interesting to see if he can keep hitting the ball hard and be a little more selective.

It will also be interesting to see if the the Tigers put him in Erie this season. If they do, I'd like to see what it does to his offensive output as Erie is a much better hitter's environment than either Lakeland or West Michigan.

John Murrian, Oneonta
21, 6’1”, 210, Bats: R

PA: 208
AVG: .296
OBP: .356
SLG: .468
XBH%: 40.0
K%: 15.9
BB%: 7.7
wOBA: .381

Murrian was selected in the 9th round of the 2009 draft and jumped into pro ball with both feet. He tore up the NY-Penn league for the first two months of the season, but cooled off as his first season of pro ball came to a close. From August 21 through the end of the season, he was 6 for 40. I’m not holding that against him, though.

You can’t put a lot of faith in short season numbers. You certainly shouldn’t put much in 40 at bats at that low level. It is good to see, though, that a player the Tigers took early in the draft performed well above league average at a premium defensive position. I would assume the Tigers will give him a shot at doing the same in West Michigan next season.

Honorable mention

It’s dangerous trying to isolate who’s an up-and-comer from the Latino compounds. Information is hard to find. Stats are unreliable at best and downright deceptive a lot of the time. Still, every year when I go through this exercise I try to point out a few guys from the Dominican and Venezuela who look like they might be worth keeping an eye on.

This year, among the catchers I think that player is Gabriel Purroy. The Tigers snatched him up soon after his first signing day. In his first season in the VSL, not only did he start a majority of the games, he looks like he held his own at the plate. The good news is he’ll be just 18 this season and that hopefully softens the blow of the bad news: he’s 5’9” and 160 pounds. I’m sure you remember the skepticism that drew for James Skelton. Hopefully, Purroy has some filling out to do.

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