The Tigers’ shortstops remind me why I don’t particularly enjoy ranking prospects. You have players who have very high ceilings but are either very far from the majors or completely untested. Then you have players with high ceilings and poor results at the higher levels. Finally, you have players with good skills and good numbers but they are at a lower level with noticeable question marks in their game. Figuring out how to weigh performance and ceiling is something I've never really come to terms with and often requires more information than I have available.

Prospect watching blues aside, I’m adding a fourth prospect to the shortstop rankings and including more honorable mentions than I have with the other positions. Part of it is shortstop being an important position where teams are going to have some of their best players. Another part, thankfully, is the fact that the Tigers have some intriguing talent at the position and some guys worth watching in 2010. (Ages are as of 4/1/10)

Daniel Fields, 2009 Draftee
19, 6’2”, 200, Bats: Left

The Tigers paid Fields’ asking price to keep him from going to Michigan. It took a seven-figure bonus and reportedly an opportunity to let him try to stay at shortstop. There don’t seem to be a lot of people who think he can stay there, but with his reported athleticism and skills he would still be an asset at third or center field.

Baseball America has him as the system’s fastest baserunner and best athlete, and while I don’t know if that’s accurate I assume it’s a good sign for him. It’s especially encouraging considering he’s also considered to have very good power from a left-handed swing. The big question for Fields at this point is where is he going to be assigned? The Tigers will use the spring to get a feel for where he belongs and I’d assume a full season assignment to begin the season would mean they liked what they saw.

Audy Ciriaco, Lakeland/Toledo
22, 6’3”, 195, Bats: Right

PA: 470/26
AVG: .262/.160
OBP: .296/.192
SLG: .397/.160
XBH%: 28.4/0.0
K%: 18.9/15.4
BB%: 4.3/3.8
wOBA: .322/.167

Ciriaco has been viewed as a player with a lot of potential ever since the Tigers signed him out of the Dominican back in February of 2005. It was evident they thought a lot of him because in his first season with the organization they sent him to the GCL Tigers. He showed a lot of potential in that debut, but seemed to take a step backward the next season.

He was nonetheless promoted in 2007 to West Michigan, where in two seasons he hit .231/.259/.327. That and a prodigious rate of errors (65 in those two seasons) still didn’t sour the Tigers on the young shortstop. He was promoted to Lakeland last season and he responded by turning in his best season as a pro. The numbers above may not look impressive in the least, however he only turned 22 midseason and those numbers are actually a tick above average in the pitcher-friendly FSL.

Combine with that the fact that the Tigers added him to the 40-man roster to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft and you have an intriguing prospect heading in to 2010. My hesitation is the Tigers don’t have a wonderful track record when it comes to being higher on position players than the prospect watchers. Still, let’s say Ciriaco can take a promotion this year and continue to hit near the league average as a shortstop with good defensive potential. That would make him a valuable asset in the organization.

Gustavo Nunez, West Michigan/GCL Tigers
22, 5’10”, 148, Bats: Switch

PA: 514
AVG: .315/.190
OBP: .360/.261
SLG: .425/.333
XBH%: 21.2/25.0
K%: 12.1/20.8
BB%: 4.9/4.2
wOBA: .358/.324

Signed out of the Dominican in May of 2007, not long after his 19th birthday, Nunez spent just one season in the DSL before coming to Florida in 2008. He split his time between the GCL and Lakeland and the Tigers liked what they saw enough to make him the Whitecaps’ starting shortstop in 2009.

As you can see above, it was a success. He hit for average and made excellent use of what I assume is top notch speed. The Tigers liked him enough to invite him to spring training as a NRI and talked about him during the TigerFest in glowing terms. National prospect writers have inched him into their Tiger top ten prospect lists.

He’s definitely without his question marks, though. As you can see above, he’s very small at an age where it doesn’t seem likely he’s going to add a lot to that frame. That likely means the little power he has is going to come from well placed line drives that allow him to take extra bases. Without much power, he’s going to need to improve his approach at the plate as right now he’s a contact hitter who doesn’t take many free passes.

Without power or a willingness to take walks, he’s going to have to hit for very high averages to be productive. Throw in the fact that he also needs refinement on the basepaths (25 times caught stealing last season) and you could be looking at a player whose speed does more harm than good on offense. There’s still time for him to grow as a player, though, and he’s said to be a good defensive shortstop. Even if he turns out to be a slappy hitter with excellent speed, a lot of players have made long careers out of combining that with good D at shortstop.

Cale Iorg, Erie
24, 6’2”, 182, Bats: Right

PA: 532
AVG: .222
OBP: .274
SLG: .336
XBH%: 28.4
K%: 28.0
BB%: 6.0
wOBA: .277

A couple years ago, Iorg was in a situation similar to Daniel Fields. Sure, he was a couple years older but he was still a player who received a first round bonus with a lot of people around baseball saying the Tigers had overspent. The Tigers, though, confident in their assessment of his skills, threw him right into the mix at Lakeland. He certainly didn’t dominate (he hit .251/.329/.405, or a tad better than league average) but his production was acceptable considering he had elite potential on defense and was coming off two years without baseball.

The Tigers certainly didn’t pull back on their expectations. Not only did he get promoted to Erie, the offseason talk before the 2009 season painted him as the Tigers’ long-term solution at shortstop. He was going to be a major leaguer, and sooner than we expected, we were told by Dave Dombrowski.

Then 2009 happened. There just wasn’t much to grasp onto from his 2009 season. Batting average, plate discipline and power all seemed to take a step backward. His results in the Arizona Fall League weren’t much better. There now seems to be a widely held belief that he was rushed and whether that’s true or not, he faces a 2010 that could be crucial in determining his future.

Something that could end up worsening the situation for Iorg is the fact that things are lining up for him to be promoted to Toledo. That’s certainly not a given, but if it happened it would allow the Tigers to put Ciriaco in Erie and Nunez in Lakeland. The placement of those three shortstops will be one of the biggest questions to be answered in spring training. If Iorg gets placed in Toledo, it will be hard not to wonder whether it was because they believe he can handle the job or if it was to accommodate the other two shortstops.

Honorable mentions: The rest of these shortstops have very short track records, but may have promise as they rise through the ranks of the minors. Hernan Perez was a signing day pickup in 2007, when he was 16, and split his age 18 season between the GCL, West Michigan and Lakeland. I expect him to be in the mix for the starting shortstop job in Grand Rapids. Dixon Machado signed a year after Perez, also as a 16-year old, and was plugged in as the VSL Tigers’ starting shortstop. His slash line (.205/.310/.278) doesn’t jump out at you but he walked as much as he struck out and stole 27 bases in 33 attempts. He’s also 6’ tall and just 140 pounds, so it will be interesting to see if his frame matures, perhaps bringing extra pop with it.

Edwin Gomez was actually taken before Daniel Fields in the 2009 draft, in the fourth round. he struggled in the GCL, but it’s important to remember he didn’t turn 18 until their season was nearly over. He’s already 6’3” and 175 pounds, though, so he’s another one to watch as he develops. Javier Azcona is kind of the Dominican counterpart of Machado. He was 16 on signing day and was the starting shortstop for the DSL Tigers. His numbers at the plate (.249/.350/.398) catch your eye more than Machado, though, as he had 20 of 55 hits go for extra bases and drew 33 walks in 63 games.

Position Summary: The Tigers lack a blue chip, five star prospect in their system but as you can see they’re far from barren. I think they’re assembling a nice stable of shortstops and even if a couple of these guys have to move off the position, they’re amassing a lot of talent. It’s starting to feel like they’re going to have to catch a break at some point and at least one of these guys will figure things out.

Previous posts in this series: 
Third base prospects
Second base prospects
First base prospects 
Catcher prospects

Minor League Blog news: I got an email from Nick Underhill, one of the writers covering Erie for Tigstown.com, that he has started his own blog, http://nickunderhill.com. This is especially pertinent news alongside the topic of my post, since his most recent post talks about how he doesn't think Cale Iorg is ready for Toledo.

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