The Tigers get a little help from a trade in boosting this category's clout. The other two players profiled are guys who could make a quick name for themselves if they could iron out some troubling kinks in their respective games. There may not be a great amount of depth at this position, but if the Tigers traded well in December they probably won't need it in the near future.

Austin Jackson, Columbus
23, 6’1”, 185, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .300
OBP: .354
SLG: .405
XBH%: 23.8
K%: 22.1
BB%: 7.2
wOBA: .348

With the popularity and prodution of Curtis Granderson, the view of the big trade of the Tigers’ 2009 offseason is likely going to turn on the ultimate success of Austin Jackson. That’s in terms of popular perception and on-the-field production. So what if he turns out to be the hitter the Tigers are hoping he can be while providing center field defense reportedly equal or better to what they received in center the past four seasons? The Tigers would continue to get excellent production from the center fielder and the trade would have netted them a likely upgrade in their rotation (going from Jackson to Scherzer) and bullpen. Added payroll flexibility in 2011, 2012 and 2013 would make it a clear win.

So how likely does it seem that Jackson will be the center fielder the Tigers are hoping he becomes? A lot of that is going to depend on how successful the Tigers are at getting him to go to the plate with an approach suited to a major league leadoff hitter. He’s shown flashes in his career of drawing a number of walks close to what you’d hope for from that spot, but it’s alarming that his strikeouts jumped up to where they tripled his walks last season.

Was there something he was working on that explains the apparent drop in command of the strike zone? One possible explanation is a random sampling of box scores throughout the season would seem to suggest Jackson spent the better part of the season hitting down in the order. Tiger fans should be hopeful a move up to the leadoff spot would bring back an approach designed to get on base more.

If Jackson was swinging for power because he was down in the lineup, it’s not an approach that paid off for him. His .105 isolated power last season was his lowest mark in that category since 2006, when he was a 19-year old playing A ball.

It would seem the smart direction in coaching Jackson would be to get him to focus on swinging at pitches he can hit, making contact and letting the power come with his physical maturity. If that can get him to bump up his walks, cut down his strikeouts and make use of a high BABIP that he’s shown throughout his career, he could be a useful bat even if the power never develops. Put that offensive package with a good center fielder who adds value on the bases and the Granderson trade could turn in the Tigers’ favor sooner than expected.

Casper Wells, Erie
25, 6’2”, 210, Bats: R

PA: 367
AVG: .260
OBP: .369
SLG: .489
XBH%: 45.7
K%: 28.1
BB%: 11.7
wOBA: .381

Wells made a little bit of a surprise return to Erie in 2009, and went down with a wrist injury early in the season, missing almost two months. When he returned, he was able to show his breakthrough 2008 season was anything but a fluke. He wasn’t able to duplicate the impressive numbers he posted in his half season in Erie in 2008, but his production was close enough that he remains a legitimate prospect.

I assume the biggest concern with Wells is his poor contact numbers. He struck out a lot last season. I can usually live with that if the Ks come with production, but I took a close look at his time in the Arizona Fall League. When I did, I discovered while he is pretty good at deciding when a pitch is good to hit, he isn’t necessarily good at making contact when he does swing. The good decisions make for excellent “damage to contact” ratios, but the low contact percentage will suppress his batting average.

If it’s a problem that persists, his eventual worth will depend on whether he can continue to draw walks and hitting for power when pitchers realize which pitches he has trouble putting the bat on. If the extra base hits and walks continue to come, we will be able to live with a batting average that looks like it will probably stay in the .240 to .260 range. That low average will be even easier to live with if reports that he can play all three outfield positions well and has an excellent arm prove to be true.

This coming season could provide us a good idea of where Wells’ skillset is going to take him. Even if he spends the entire season in Toledo, dealing with more advanced pitchers should point to how he will be able to handle, or perhaps improve, contact issues. Success in doing so - and good value on defense - should put him as either a first or second alternative when one of the Tigers’ outfielders goes down to injury.

Ben Guez, West Michigan
23, 5’10”, 175, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .275
OBP: .320
SLG: .483
XBH%: 47.7
K%: 21.7
BB%: 4.1
wOBA: .363

Guez is almost a very intriguing prospect. He hit for a good batting average considering the environment in the Midwest League. He showed a lot of power, as almost half his hits went for extra bases. He is a good center fielder who was able to steal 11 bases in 15 tries and was fast enough to leg out 7 triples. That batting average wasn’t inflated by an unreasonable BABIP if you allow that faster runners can be expected to have higher than average marks in that category (especially ones who hit the ball this hard). He’s probably not going to get by in the .360s every year but the season he had would have been notable with a much lower number, too.

So why is he third on this list and why has his name not come up all that much when Tiger outfield prospects are mentioned? That walk rate is completely unacceptable. You simply do not get by walking only a fifth as much as you strike out, and when you’re 22 in the Midwest League that is especially true.

Let’s not throw him to the scrap heap just yet, though. It’s tempting to only consider players’ most recent season, but we can’t simply ignore what proceeded their most recent seasons. Guez played for Oneonta in 2008 and drew 33 walks in just 305 plate appearances. Was he watching wild, young pitchers miss the plate with straight fastballs? That’s possible, and certainly if I’m paying attention to one of these seasons compared to the other I’m definitely putting much more weight on 2009. Still, I think Guez has better plate discipline in him than what we saw in 2009 and considering the results he saw when his plate discipline was garbage, I’m wondering what he could do should it ever improve.

Honorable mentions: Jamie Johnson was drafted in the 7th round of the 2009 draft and as the O-Tigers’ primary center fielder put up a line of .241/.345/.367 in a league where the average line was .245/.320/.351. It’s not exceptional production, but it’s above average while playing a premium defensive position. That gets a mention from me every time. I’m also going to throw Kyle Peter a mention. He missed a big chunk of last season to injury, but he’s still a very fast baserunner who can play quality center field and knows his strike zone. I doubt he’ll ever hit enough to make the big leagues, but he’ll probably help a few pitchers keep their ERAs down enough to catch some attention.

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