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Earlier in the week, I took at three young position players who are playing important roles for the Tigers this year. Today, I'm doing the same with the Tigers' youngest starters. I realize the Tigers also have some young relievers that some people were (and are) nervous about trusting games with, but I'm not going to profile relievers today for a couple of reasons. First, we're talking about a number of innings that's equivalent to a couple of starts. I think that's too little time for even an "early look". The second reason is there were enough relievers in the mix for the Tigers' bullpen that I have a hard time looking at the fringes of the bullpen as particularly important to the Tigers' success. That explanation out of the way, let's get down to looking at Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.
Rick Porcello
TBF: 92
H: 33
HR: 2
K%: 14.1
BB%: 6.5
GB%: 56.3
FIP: 4.35
I was a bit mystified early in the season when the general consensus among Tiger fans seemed to be that Porcello was the Tigers' number two starter. After all, he is still very young and while his ERA and won-loss records were good, there was certainly a possibility they would lead to disappointment if they were more in line with his peripherals this year. It's true I expected the adjustment to go the other way - his peripherals would catch up to the results - but it just surprised me how often I heard something like "We have Verlander and Porcello, but after that..."
Well, if you've ever made a confident statement about what you believe will happen in a baseball season, you should know by now that the sport has a way of making you feel like you don't know as much as you thought. Porcello's peripherals have been better this season. He's striking batters out at an improved rate. He's maintained his low walk rate. He's getting more ground balls and giving up home runs at a lower rate. In short, he is indeed pitching at a level that would lead us to expect an ERA close to what he achieved last year. Yet his ERA is very close to four runs higher than what it was last year, when all the cited indications point to his pitching worse.
How to explain it? His velocity doesn't seem to be down. Hitters don't seem to be making significantly better contact (12.7 LD% compared 17.1% last year) and there are no stark differences in contact rates or hitting the strike zone. He's simply the victim of more hits falling in. Last year, BABIP was his friend (.281). This year, Porcello is looking at BABIP (.427) and realizing their relationship has soured quickly. Even if they don't get back to warm and cuddly terms, they're not going to keep up the combative stage they're currently going through. Aaron Harang was the most unfortunate starter in the majors last year with a BABIP of .339. Predictably, he also led the league's starters in line drive percentage (23.7).
Both of those facts are obviously way out of whack with where Porcello is right now. He's seeing ten percent more of his hits fall in than Harang did last year despite a line drive percentage that's half of what Harang's was. That WILL NOT hold up over the season. Once his BABIP gets more in line with reality, we’ll see if he can get his rate of stranding runners (currently 62.8%) back up closer to normal (around 70%) as well.
I know it's difficult to have watch what Porcello has done so far and just take it on faith that things will get better. Still, that's just what the Tigers should do until they get a better indicator that this is more than a run of bad luck.
Note: I just want to acknowledge Billfer took a similar look at Porcello not too long ago and came to a similar conclusion, but I feel okay about duplicating his efforts. After all, how can you not look at Porcello, see he’s getting worse results despite pitching better and not come to a similar conclusion? If there’s a way, I’m not sure what it is.
Max Scherzer
TBF: 114
H: 31
HR: 5
K%: 17.5
BB%: 6.1
GB%: 36.3
FIP: 5.09
One of the reasons I was mystified at the "We have Verlander and Porcello, but after that..." sentiment was its implied dismissal/skepticism of the season Max Scherzer had in 2009. He struck out better than a batter per inning in his first full season as a major leaguer! If we still had Edwin Jackson, people would be saying, "We have Verlander, Porcello and Jackson..." and Scherzer is clearly better than Jackson right now! This was what my internal mystification at the underrating of Max Scherzer sounded like. I know he did this all in the National League, but it's not like the National League is Triple A.
A month into the 2010 season, Scherzer has struggled and it's not all tough luck struggles like I argued for Porcello. His strikeouts are way down (23.5% in 2009) and his homers are up with him giving up at least one dinger in every start but his first. A drop in walks (8.5 BB% last year) takes some of the sting out of that. Not to mention, if Jim Thome doesn't push a pitch that was low and outside over Comerica's left field fence we're not talking about much of a jump in home run rate compared to last year. (Tiger pitchers should take up a collection and pay Thome to sit out games against the Tigers. Verlander's contribution alone could probably cover his mortgage.)
Anyway, the potentially fluky homer rate isn't concerning to me. Heck, I wouldn't even be too concerned about the strikeout rate if it weren't accompanied by an alarming drop in velocity. Last year, Scherzer's fastball averaged 93.6 mph and so far this year it's averaged 91.8 mph. Maybe he's throwing more two-seamers? Maybe he needs to heat up? Well, I don't know about the ratio of two-seam fastballs to four-seamers but he didn't need to heat up last year. Last year, his velocity started higher and dropped down close (but not quite this low) to the levels we're seeing now. That's a little concerning when you also factor in that he's lost velocity on his slider and changeup as well.
Please don't take this as me being Chicken Little and screaming that Scherzer is broken. It's possible there are perfectly reasonable explanations for his drop in strikeouts and velocity. Maybe he's pulling back a bit after hearing all offseason how he's an injury risk who probably can't hold up as a long-term starter. Maybe he likes the lower velocity because it's allowed him to cut down on his walks and eventually will lead to better pitch count efficiency. One thing I did notice is with the lower velocity, he also seems to be achieving more lateral movement. Maybe he likes that. Who knows? My purpose in pointing this out is simply to show that unlike with Porcello, there may not just be a difference in results hitters are achieving. There may also be a difference in the pitches hitters are seeing. It may take Scherzer some time to make that work to his advantage.
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