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Written by Matt Wallace
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Friday, 23 April 2010 18:44 |
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I don't want to turn into a transactions blog, but we just took a look at who's hot and who's not and that's not something that's going to change much in less than a week. Besides, when Carlos Guillen went down rounding third in Thursday's game it was a pretty important transaction. On the down side, the Tigers lost a) their third or fourth best hitter this season, b) the fifth hitter in the lineup and c) one of their few hitters who can hit left-handed. That could be a pretty significant downside, and it's true when I wrote an argument for how the Tigers could win the division Guillen staying healthy figured prominently.
However, we try to focus on the positive here at Take 75 North and I'd like to talk about those aspects of Guillen going down. Let's begin with the guys who were already on the 25-man roster. This injury should allow more at bats for Ryan Raburn. He should definitely get in when a lefty is starting and I think Raburn is probably a better hitter against left-handed pitching right now than Guillen. I think this will also allow Raburn to get in more overall, but when a right-hander is on the mound he'll still be losing time to players who can bat from the left side like Don Kelly and Guillen's replacement.
That brings us to who's being given an opportunity in the big leagues as a result of Guillen's injury, Brennan Boesch. People who read this site regularly should be fairly familiar with Boesch, but let's take a look at him anyway. We should probably start with his size, listed at 6'4" and 235 pounds, because that's a large part of what allows his power. His power is his definitely his best asset. It allowed him to lead the Eastern League in home runs (28) last year and place second in isolated power (.235). Isolated power is just sluggling percentage minus batting average and it's generally considered a better indicator of power than home runs or slugging percentage, especially when trying to project future power for minor leaguers.
But maybe your eyes gloss over with all this numbers talk. This probably isn't the place for you if that's the case, but I have some anecdotal evidence of his power as well. Boesch is the minor leaguer whose batting practices caused his major league teammates to stop what they working on and watch. Remember, these are guys who have spent the last few years watching guys like Miggy and Marcus Thames launch buckets of 450 foot, five o'clock homers. Grabbing their attention isn't all that easy, but Boesch did and he apparently grabbed the attention of some of the decision-makers as well. Well, what he's done in Toledo since camp broke certainly hasn't hurt.
He's hitting .379/.455/.621 with 3 homers and 7 of his 22 hits going for extra bases. Don't fall in love with that batting average because it's coming on the back of a .500 BABIP. That on-base percentage is a little misleading as well. He's drawn four walks in 66 plate appearances. The separation between his on-base percentage and batting average owes just as much to his being hit by four pitches as it does his eye at the plate. His plate discipline, or lack therof, is going to be his major obstacle to major league success. Last season in Erie, he only managed an on-base percentage of .318 despite putting up an average of .275. That's due to his walking just 33 times in 571 plate appearances.
You might think you could live without walks if he can hit .275 with a lot of power, but he also struck out 127 times last year (and 17 times so far this year). Those contact problems aren't likely to get better at the major league level and that means you're not going to be able to count on him hitting for that high of an average without an improvement in his approach. I don't want to sell what he's done so far this year short, though. Sure, he's seeing a lot of hits fall in but that's not all luck. He's hitting the bejeezus out of the ball when he makes contact, as evidenced by 34.1 percent of his batted balls going for line drives. That could just be an ability to feast on fastballs, but it could also be the results of knowing what pitches he can put good wood on. It's too early to tell, though, if he's enjoying a true change in his talent level or if he's just on a hot streak.
Before we move on to other transactions in the system, I'd also like to clarify that Boesch isn't just some lumbering giant who's a nice batting practice attraction. His athleticism is pretty widely praised, even if it sometimes has the "for a big man" qualifier attached. It shows up in the numbers, too. He's hit 26 triples in his career (a little more than three season's worth of at bats) and has stolen 34 bases in 50 attempts, reaching double digits in both 2007 and 2009. I'm not sure of his range in the outfield - I've never heard rave reviews, but I've also never heard scoffs - but he has the arm to play right field.
So what does Boesch joining the team mean? Well, it gives the Tigers some added versatility from their bench. It's nice that he allows them to keep the same number of left-handed bats but he'll also give them a little more freedom to put Maggs at DH when a right-handed pitcher is starting. Offensively, I don't think he can replace Guillen's contribution. I think the Tigers will have to hope he stays hot and that between his at bats and the extra at bats they can give Raburn, the two combined can be a fair approximation of what Guillen gave them.
In the very short term, Scott Feldman is the Rangers' probable starter tonight and he is right-handed. We all know Leyland likes to get callups right into the action, so Boesch will be thrown right into the fire. There's been no word yet on who the Mud Hens will replace Boesch with on the roster, or the rest of the ripple effect from Guillen's injury (which will likely stop in Lakeland).
Unfortunately, the other transaction news also has to do with injuries. Lester Oliveros and Tyler Stohr were both put on the disabled list Thursday. According to the linked article, Stohr's injury - an elbow strain - is the more concerning of the two. That doesn't mean it's not frustrating to see Oliveros' hot start to the season interrupted. I was disappointed to see Oliveros back in Lakeland, but he's wasted no time in building a case for a promotion. He's made six appearances this season and earned a save in the last five. He's struck out eight batters in six innings of work and has yet to walk anyone or give up a homer. On the plus side, it doesn't sound like it will be much more than a week before he's back and making his case for joining the Erie bullpen.
Lakeland doesn't seem to have replaced both pitchers in the pen yet, but they did call up Robert Waite from extended spring training. Waite doesn't have the upside of Oliveros or Stohr, but Mark Anderson's report in the linked article has him making improvements over the offseason.
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Last Updated on Sunday, 25 April 2010 21:16 |
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