This is the last of the minor league team previews. Thanks one last time to Tigstown.com for providing a central spot for finding all these rosters. Before we get going on looking at Mud Hens, I also wanted to take the opportunity to let readers know I'm going to be on vacation starting Friday and ending next Saturday. I'm going to San Francisco and will likely go see Lincecum pitch, but that's not going to have much to do with the Tigers or their farm.

I expect to come back refreshed and ready to dig into the seasons of the Tigers and their prospects. I'm confident you'll find plenty of quality posts from other Tiger bloggers listed on the right of this page (and others who aren't yet) in my absence and thank you for your patience. On to the preview.

Catchers

Mike Rabelo 
Robinzon Diaz

Where Erie has a couple of career minor league backups, the Hens’ fans are getting a couple of major league backups this season. Well, sort of. Diaz should get the starter’s share of games and he has 148 major league plate appearances  (.281/.306/.353) with Toronto and Pittsburgh. Rabelo has 308 big league appearances (.234/.281/.331) between the Tigers and Florida. I don’t think either will force Avila out of Detroit, but both have been decent enough hitters at the minor league level.

Infield

Jeff Larish 
William Rhymes 
Danny Worth 
Brent Dlugach 
Max Leon

There’s nothing but familiar faces on the Mud Hen infield. There’s also quite a bit of versatility. Larish will provide a good lefty bat (.265/.397/.412 last year in Toledo despite being injured) at the Triple A level and will probably draw time at both corners and maybe a little left field. Danny Worth won’t provide much offense - still, hopefully more than last year (.212/.265/.252 in 162 PA at AAA) - but should provide a good glove and every infield position but first base.

Dlugach, too, can expect to move around the infield. He’s a good shortstop, but since he’s likely bound for a utility role if he makes the majors I don’t really see any reason to avoid such a duty at this level. He beefed up a bit during the offseason, but contact was more of an issue than power last year (.294/.349/.446 and 137 K last year). Max Leon has been a utility player for Erie and Toledo for the past two years, but he’s slowly slipped down the defensive spectrum. He used to play some middle infield, but has lately picked up more time in less demanding positions. With a career Triple A line of .258/.330/.312, that’s not going to cut it for such easy defensive duty.

Finally, you have Rhymes. He had drawn second base duties for the vast majority of his pro assignments, but started being pressed into a utility role last year when he quit hitting (.260/.324/.354 in 455 PA). All that versatility means the Mud Hens probably won’t duplicate their lineups very often and it should also give the Hens’ pitchers a pretty good defense on most days.

Outfield

Ryan Strieby 
Casper Wells 
Brennan Boesch 
Clete Thomas 
Jeff Frazier

There may not be a grouping of players in the Tigers’ system who will get more attention than the Toledo outfield. Strieby will be watched for a number of reasons. They’ll want to see if his wrist holds up, if he can continue to mash in Toledo and if he even approaches passable in left. I predict he’ll get more time at first than in left this season.

The other two corner outfielders for the Tigers will be looking to make a name for themselves as the Tigers eye their left field situation for 2011. Brennan Boesch will see if he can cut down on the strikeouts and take a few more walks while trying to maintain his home run power even if he’s unable to control the strike zone. Wells will also work on improving his contact skills, but he has less work to do than Boesch in that department. His power and ability to play each of the outfield positions should prove valuable for both his outlook with the Tigers and the Mud Hens.

Of course, once Clete Thomas works his way back to Detroit Wells might move to center field. Until that happens, Thomas is the team’s best outfielder and should provide a very good left-handed bat at this level. The Tigers are frustrated with his lack of concentration at the plate, so he’s another one who will look to develop a more efficient swing.

The odd man out most games figures to be Frazier. He’s a 1b/DH and corner outfield type and you may have noticed the Hens have quite a few of those players. He’s listed as an outfielder, but his best opportunities to play may come when Larish is at third or the occasional DH duty.

Pitchers

Alfredo Figaro. RHP
Armando Galarraga, RHP
Casey Fien, RHP
Daniel Schlereth, LHP
Enrique Gonzalez, RHP
Jason Waddell, LHP
Jay Sborz, RHP
Josh Rainwater, RHP
Phil Dumatrait, LHP
Robbie Weinhardt, RHP 
Ruddy Lugo, RHP
Scot Drucker, RHP

I looked at these pitchers and thought about what would probably be the starting rotation and it quickly dawned on me that the Hen’s rotation is a good deal older than the Tigers’. I’m not sure about the fifth starter, but whether it’s Dumatrait or Gonzalez doesn’t matter. The rotation of Drucker, Figaro, Gonzalez/Dumatrait, Lugo and Galarraga is older than the Tigers’ and it’s not particularly close.

Lugo is the oldest starter on either staff and as a minor league vet, he’s basically a league average starter. If he’s winning the Hens’ Pitcher of the Year again this year, it’s going to be a bad sign. The next pitcher chronologically is Galarraga (three days younger than Dontrelle Willis). He’s certainly had a big enough taste of success for this minor league gig to be bitter. If he wants to get back to that sweet major league minimum salary, though, he’s going to need to get reacquainted with the strike zone (walks jumped from 3.1 BB/9 to 4.2) and try to figure out a way to keep the ball in the yard (52 HR allowed last two seasons).

Scot Drucker was born about four months after Galarraga and like Lugo, he’s probably about a league average starter in Triple A. The good news for him, though, is he’s two years younger, has better stuff and better control. Still, he is quite susceptible to rough outings and alternated between the pen and rotation for Toledo last year.

I’m going to assume Gonzalez is the squad’s fifth starter and if he is he’s next in terms of age. He’s been bouncing between Triple A and the majors for a few years now, starting in the minors and throwing relief in the bigs. He’s a soft tosser who’s certainly not a world beater at either, and looks to be another league average starter at the Triple A level.

All this puts a fair amount of pressure on the youngest member of the rotation, Figaro (a shade younger than Scherzer). If this team is going to be successful, it’s either going to be despite a league average rotation or because of a big season from him. These other pitchers are getting further removed from expectations of big improvement, but Figaro still has the stuff to be able to put up a big season for the Hens. That sets up a bit of a paradox, though. First, he’s only thrown more than 150 innings once. Also, even if he has the stamina to stay a starter for Toledo, if he’s pitching well enough to carry the staff he’s unlikely to stay.

There is another way this staff could be successful despite a rotation that’s short on upside. Its bullpen has the potential to be excellent. Casey Fien has struggled in the majors, but has shown he is a valuable minor league reliever. Joining him late in the games will probably be a couple of other hard-throwing right-handers, Jay Sborz and Robbie Weinhardt. Sborz has major league stuff, but still needs to bring his control along. I’d bet some sodium pentathol in the Tigers’ front office would have a few people saying Weinhardt, so impressive in the AFL and spring training, should be in the majors right now.

Joining that talented trio, and coming from the left side, you have Daniel Schlereth. The bad news for the Hens is if he’s able to get his control down, the fireballing lefty won’t be in Toledo long. Until he’s promoted, though, he’ll light up the guns at Fifth Third and give the fans a thrill. His southpaw companion in the pen is Jason Waddell. Waddell doesn’t throw hard like the others mentioned, but he’s been a fairly successful minor league reliever for a few years now and should be able to come in to get tough lefties out.

That leaves Phil Dumatrait and Josh Rainwater. They can serve as long relievers for the Hens and could probably pick up spot starts as well. Judging from comments during spring training, they might both also be able to catch the eye of the Tigers with continued success. I’d be surprised if either carved a permanent niche in the Tiger bullpen, but both seem capable of being an asset for the Hens.

Conclusion

The Hens seem to have a concentration of prospects in their outfield and bullpen.  The guys in the outfield and Brent Dlugach should be able to provide enough pop to keep their lineup afloat. It is, after all, much the same core of players that were able to lift the SeaWolves to the highest scoring offense in the Eastern League last year.

I think the key to this team is going to lie in its rotation. I’ve already said I think they’re mostly a grouping of league average starters, but those type of pitchers can break your way with good defense. We’ll see how this squad shakes out in that regard. Experiments to see where guys like Larish and Strieby might fit probably won’t help in that regard. The rotation's eventual part in whatever success the Hens may have might just come from keeping their team in it, though. With a potent core to their lineup and a strong pen, the team might come out on the good end when their starters are able to keep them within a run either way when the sixth inning rolls around.

I would be remiss to not mention another key factor in the Hens’ season. That’s the Tigers themselves. If they are racked with injuries or failures and have to look to Toledo, that can have a bigger negative effect on this team than any one player’s struggles or successes. That’s why we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on these Opening Day rosters.

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