It's that fun time of year when the Tigers have to prepare their 40-man roster for free agents and the Rule 5 draft. Once the free agents are taken off the roster, the Tigers will have 36 spots filled. That means they can add four players who are exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they want.
One thing to keep in mind is the Tigers' current 40-man roster - even once they add guys they want to protect - doesn't really even approach being a "ready to go" big league roster. I suspect they will want to add a shortstop and a reliever at the very minimum. That's important for when you go through the 36 players on the roster and think guys could be removed in order to protect additional Rule 5 eligibles.
For example, say you look at Clay Rapada and his zero remaining options and say to yourself that there's just no way he's part of the Tigers' 2010 plans. So, you cut him loose in order to make the extra room you wanted for, just pulling a name out of the air, Brett Jensen. This may sound like a good idea, but there's a potential problem if you jam pack your 40-man roster full of players you don't really view as expendable.
You have to drop somebody you'd rather keep around every time you bring a free agent aboard. It's a lot easier for a team to snag a guy on waivers - which they could do if you remove him from your 40-man roster - and tuck him away in their system than it is to take him in the Rule 5 draft and keep him on their active roster for the entire 2010 season.
Now consider the alternative. You go ahead and leave a little fat on your 40-man and leave potentially attractive players like Brett Jensen and Lester Oliveros exposed to the Rule 5. Sure, they may get snatched up but chances are they won't. If they don't, you have complete control of them for another year and you can go back to bringing them along in your system. This is a nuance I've lost sight of a couple times in the past couple years, and frankly it's a little embarrassing as I look back.
This is also the reason I'm not as concerned about the 39th and 40th players on the Tigers' roster. Yes, they pretty much have to - and will - add Scott Sizemore and Ryan Strieby. Sizemore could be their starting second baseman and if the Tigers miss Marcus Thames come spring time, they could easily use Ryan Strieby to fill his role.
Looking at the other eligible players, there are certainly guys who I'd prefer to have around to see what they can become. But none of them stand out to me as sure bets to be taken if left unprotected. Going down the list of Rule 5 eligibles, the following players jump out at me as players who would at least warrant discussion before leaving them open to the draft:
Brennan Boesch
Brooks Brown
Audy Ciriaco
Scot Drucker
L.J. Gagnier
Brett Jensen
Luis Marte
Jordan Newton
Lester Oliveros
Deik Scram
Brayan Villareal
Brennan Boesch is kind of being tossed around as a sure bet to be protected. But given the nature of Rule 5 picks, Brett Jensen and Lester Oliveros are the names that jump out at me the most. After all, those two are relievers who I could see holding down a specific role in the back of a major league bullpen. Boesch, on the other hand is a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who seems to have a significant problem with either pitch recognition, strike zone recognition or both. As a corner outfielder, he's really going to have to punish those fastballs to make up for an on-base percentage down around .300. I'm not saying the Tigers aren't going to protect him, but I could easily see that profile being a significant obstacle to other teams taking him.
Of the remaining names, Brayan Villareal had a bit of a breakout last season for West Michigan and I believe he has the stuff to make those numbers intriguing. He's probably next on the list if you order it in likelihood of being protected, and I imagine he'd be followed by Luis Marte. He has a great arm - or at the very least did - but injury problems have shortened each of his last two seasons.
Brown, Drucker and Gagnier all strike me as guys who are good to have around, but if you were to lose one of them it's entirely possible one of the other two could step into the vacancy. Deik Scram has a similar issue. The Tigers' system is chock full of potential fourth outfielders, to the point where even if he were the best of them it's hard to imagine that loss would come back to haunt them.
Finally, you come to Ciriaco and Newton. Neither has had significant time above Hi A and if somebody were to pinch either one, it would almost have to be because an opposing team's scout just fell in love with their potential.
What do I think the Tigers will do? That's hard to say because I don't really know what's going to be available for them to pick up in the Rule 5 draft. I doubt they're going to find either a bench player or bullpen arm that's much of a step up from what they already have in the system. Who are they going to protect?
Based on what they've said about Oliveros in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if he was next in line after Sizemore and Strieby. He would be the 39th player on the roster. After him, my attention would probably turn to Villareal or Jensen but I'm not sure it's going to make too much of a difference.
I'm not too sure the other players would get selected and stick with the team who took them. If they did, I just don't see it as causing a major problem for the Tigers. Here's the other thing to consider. If the Tigers load up all the way to 40 spots, they could pretty easily remove Don Kelly and Clay Rapada if and when they bring in a shortstop and a bullpen arm. Who of the players discussed above do you really think would stand in their way if they found another player who they thought could help in 2010?
Who of the players discussed above even have a better chance at helping the Tigers long term than players who aren't yet exposed to the Rule 5? I'm talking about guys like Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt. I like Oliveros and Jensen, but I don't view either one as more likely to pitch for the Tigers in 2010 than Satterwhite and Weinhardt.
I'm sure this is the case most years, but having thought about it this year, I think any player who gets taken in the Rule 5 will be pretty easily replaceable.