I’ve thought about the trade a lot ever since it first looked like it was a done deal. I’ve had a lot of little mental bullet points. The first ones, of course, were the kind of emotional fan feelings. Some were along the lines of what I mentioned yesterday and then there were more about little this and that thoughts.
At one point, it occurred to me to try to think of the last thing I remembered Curtis Granderson doing with the Tigers. I was annoyed that I couldn’t think of it and then annoyed that this means of departure kind of robbed us of the ability to appreciate his last days with the team. Of course, so did the outcome of his last days with the team.
Once I went down this road, I realized these were the kind of thoughts you have when you’re grieving and I felt a little silly. I’ve grieved for real and my team making a fairly reasonable trade in the hopes of improving themselves in the long run shouldn’t really get me to that place.
The realization kind of snapped me into looking at the trade from the baseball perspective rather than as a Granderson fan. I guess you could say the Tiger fan wrestled the wheel away from the Granderson fan. I started looking at who the Tigers received, rather than fretting about what they gave up.
I’ll discuss those players in the order of how excited I am about each.
Max Scherzer
There is word that the Tigers could have traded Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer straight up. These concerns me for a number of reasons, but let me voice three. First, if we are to believe this is a good trade we need for Scherzer to be better than Jackson. I think he is and when you throw in money, I don’t think it’s particularly close. But why doesn’t Dave Dombrowski think so, if this story is true?
That’s my first reason for concern. That story calls into question, for me, Dombrowski’s thoughts on value. It does so because it means he essentially traded Granderson for Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and I guess a little less than Daniel Schlereth (since part of Schlereth evened out the Jackson deal).
That leads right into my second concern. Is there something Dombrowski knows about Scherzer we don’t? Is he concerned about his ability to be a long-term starter or his health concerns? I hope not, because in 2010 Scherzer is the one who has the best chance of making this deal look smart.
Finally, the rumor about Dombrowski turning down the Jackson-Scherzer trade leads me to believe there was a hint of a money concern involved in making this decision. I go to that conclusion because that doesn’t really sound like a lot for Curtis Granderson to me. Maybe the Tigers did need to cut that $10 million out of their payroll? I hope not. I hope the Tigers’ people really like Austin Jackson and their projections have this deal working out fine when all is said and done.
Where was I? Oh, Max Scherzer. Some people are going to see the 9-11 record and the 4.12 ERA, compare it to what Edwin Jackson did in the American League and say Jackson is only a year older and is a better pitcher and a proven pitcher.
Bull. Max Scherzer threw 44 less innings than Jackson last year but struck out 13 more batters. Scherzer had more strikeouts than innings pitched and he did it with a great fastball, a very good slider and a changeup that needs work.
There are some injury concerns, as he’s already had Tommy John. Evan Brunell covers concerns beyond that very well in this article, but A.J. Hinch sure seemed to like the young pitcher he just gave up in this interview. There seems to be a consensus that he needs to develop a third pitch, but doing that and staying healthy will make him a superstar pitcher. Right now, we’ll just have to settle for a very good one.
Austin Jackson
This deal really turns on Austin Jackson. He is, after all, the one we’re going to see out there where Granderson used to be. He’s going to be remembered as the guy who replaced Curtis Granderson until he becomes the player who makes us remember Austin Jackson.
A funny thing about Austin Jackson is when I was researching what kind of player he is, I stumbled across a quote from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus when Goldstein was discussing the good side of the young outfielder:
Jackson's tools rate as average or better across the board. He works the count well, has enough power to hit 15-18 home runs annually, and the speed to play a solid center field while stealing 20-25 bases a year. He earns raves for his makeup, effort, and competitiveness.
To me, that sounds like it could have been an incredibly prescient scouting report of Granderson circa 2004 or 2005. Of course, scouts are mixed on what Jackson will become. Some say he will be more like a passable center fielder and maybe even something more like a fourth outfielder.
This deal turns on who’s right between that guess and that of his supporters. When that kind of disagreement exists, I usually hope for the numbers to be a little more promising that what we saw from Jackson in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last year. He hit .300/.354/.405 with 40 walks and 123 strikeouts and a .390 BABIP. The good news there is that was as a 22-year old playing Triple A ball.
What the Tigers need is for him to develop some of the power people see in his projections and for him to get his walks and strikeouts back down closer to the 1:2 ratio he had in Trenton the prior year. If he keeps hitting for average, plays a capable center field and one of those things happen he’ll be a good player. If they both happen, he could be very good.
Daniel Schlereth
Schlereth was the college teammate of Ryan Perry. The Tigers popped Perry with the 21st pick of the 2008 draft and the Diamondbacks plucked Schlereth at 26. We know what happened to Perry. Schlereth blasted through the minor leagues, striking out 60 batters in 39.2 innings.
That strikeout ability landed him in the majors in 2009 despite the fact that all those strikeouts also came with 23 walks. Once he was in the majors, things were pretty predictably rough for him. In a hair over 18 innings, he struck out 22 and walked 15. The Ks are great, but that walk rate needs to be cut about in half for him to be the reliever the Tigers want.
If he finds that control, he could be special. He throws hard, very hard for a lefty, and uses a power curve a lot. That gets him a good number of swings and misses and early returns also have the mix leading to a lot of ground balls. Lots of strikeouts and ground balls is a fine way to go through life, son.
Phil Coke
Coke is definitely the least discussed player included for the Tigers in this deal. He’s another hard-throwing lefty but he’s also 27 with one full season in the bigs. His 2009 season ended up looking pretty average as the lefty specialist ended with a 4.50 ERA.
His peripherals looked good, though. He only allowed 44 hits in 60 innings, walked just 20 and struck out 49. That would have made for a season much better than average if he hadn’t given up ten home runs. Luckily, seven of those came at home so we’ll have to hope Comerica helps that problem a bit.
The other good news is he was still very effective against left-handers. Well over half the batters he faced were southpaws and he held them to a line of .195/.218/.366 with just five walks against 32 strikeouts. The big isolated power against him comes from six long balls.
Until he shows some progress against right-handers, he’ll probably remain a lefty specialist. But with the big left field in Comerica, it might not hurt as much to let him take a shot at a right-handed batter sandwiched between to lefties. I’d just prefer nobody was on base when they do it.