I hope at least a couple readers were able to catch me on WTKA 1050 out of Ann Arbor today. I was on a little after 5:00, but I think it lasted about fifteen minutes and I thought it went pretty well. One problem I continually have when I do these radio spots is I find myself introducing ideas - new even to me - that deserve to be teased out into a full post with supporting data and research.

For example, I'll be talking and before I know it I'm saying something that feels right but probably needs my usual one or two thousand word posts to be properly explored. Today it was the idea that going into the season with a couple rookies in the starting lineup and a lot of unknowns is exciting. Sure people are nervous about Jackson and Sizemore and a lot of other things, but that uncertainty goes both ways. They could fall on their faces, but they could also break out. That big upside wasn't really a possibility with Polanco and even with Granderson, all we could hope for was him approaching his 2007 season.

I fear I may have sounded a little kooky trying to make my point on the radio, but I truly believe that. The Tigers probably aren't even the best team in the worst division in baseball, but they have a fighting chance and they could be dangerous if they make the postseason. That's just as exciting to me as being the front runner. Heading into the season as a front runner really only leaves one outcome being considered a success. Even if you are the best team, that's going to end as a disappointment more times than not. For me, imagining what will have happened for the Tigers to be successful this season is the best part of being a fan.

All this shiny happy ranting brings me to the reason for the title of this post. Bloguin, the network hosting my website, has been running a series called the Great Bloguin Baseball Debate. You may have noticed the logo on the right side of the site designating me as a participant. In my "debate", I'm going against the writer of the Twins' site, Twinstarget.com. We're each stating our case for why the team we follow will win the Central Division, and I kind of enjoyed writing from what I see as the underdog's role.

I'm not sure when it will be up, but I will be sure to let you know when it is. If you're interested in seeing the debates that have already taken place, you can find them here. It should be some good reading while you have some down time at work. Not that I condone that sort of thing.

I just wanted to let anybody who might be interested I'm supposed to be on WTKA 1050 tomorrow around 5:00 pm. I'm supposed to be talking about Scott Sizemore and the Tigers' youngsters, but the conversation could always spill over into other things. So, if you find yourself in their listening area on the way home from work, give it a listen.

If you do tune in and I'm not on there, there was probably a breaking sports story or they found a better known guest. You know, like anybody else. I'll try to post the audio if I get it afterward and can figure out how to put it on the site.

I think most Tiger fans at this point have given up on Dontrelle Willis as a pitcher. I know it’s tough to accept that the Tigers are going to pay him to: a) pitch in the minors, b) not pitch at all, c) pitch poorly in the majors or d) pitch for somebody else. I think when some people realize this they start to wonder what the Tigers could do with him, and for some reason a common “outside the box” idea is to turn him into an outfielder.

This is the idea I wish people would give up. Simply put, it’s idiotic. No, maybe that’s a little too harsh. It’s not idiotic. It’s just poorly thought out. He’s in the final year of his contract with the Tigers. That means if the Tigers were to turn him into an outfielder, they would be taking the spot of one of their minor league outfielders to train him to become a free agent. Stunting the development of a young player to take a long shot on an experiment that would likely pay off for somebody else - if anybody at all - is not the way to build a winning franchise.

Somebody making this argument might say that sure, it’s too late for the Tigers to do it now. They should have done it a year or two ago. When exactly would that have been? Certainly not 2008. Willis was coming to the Tigers in a huge trade and expected to be the third or fourth starter on a World Series team. He had struggled the year before, but the company line was he pitched fine once he was healthy. That was why the Tigers gave him his current big contract. They didn’t want him coming over in his final year of arbitration, figuring things out and then jumping ship for free agency.

Clearly, it wasn’t happening at the beginning of 2008. What about as the season went on, though? Please. He went down with an injury in his second start and didn’t start a game again until June. Sure, he got bombed in his first two starts back but this was a guy who had won Rookie of the Year and was a runner-up to the Cy Young just three years before. I’m sure he and everybody else figured this was something he could work through.

After trying to work things out down in the minors, he came back for a few outings in September. Things didn’t go well in those three starts, but in his last start of the season he earned a win while giving up three runs in five innings and change. When you’re a pitcher with Willis’s pedigree, that’s an embarrassing season to be sure. I don’t think it’s necessarily cause for blowing up your career as a pitcher, though.

Maybe you disagree. Maybe this, you think, is the offseason where the Tigers should have leaned on him to hang up the funky windup and see how well he could track down a fly ball. Think about that. If you’re paying a guy $10 million in the coming season and $12 million the season after that, which gamble do you take?

Do you take the gamble that he returns to being the pitcher that made you sign him to that deal in the first place? Or do you take the gamble that he can become a big league outfielder over the next two seasons? Which gamble do you think has a better chance of paying you back?

If you’re still saying making him an outfielder, let’s explore that. First, you have to convince him to do it. Dontrelle’s a great guy, right? He’d do whatever it took to help the team. Sure he’d give up pitching after getting to 68 wins by the time he was 26. I don’t mean to be a jerk about this, but athletes are notoriously stubborn about their abilities and expecting Willis to do this puts the idea on shaky ground immediately.

Let’s assume he would have, though. Even the biggest supporter of this idea would have to agree Willis would have needed to start in the minor leagues to make this conversion. He hadn’t played outfield in a game situation since high school, and I’m just assuming he did so there since he had a good arm, could hit and was left-handed. Again, this means you make a spot on one of your full season squads so Willis can be paid $22 million in a situation where the best you can reasonably expect is that he’d earn a spot as a fourth outfielder.

Because when this decision was made, you had Curtis Granderson as your center fielder of the future. That meant not only was Willis going to have to crack the majors as an outfielder, he was going to have to do it as a corner outfielder. American League left fielders hit .267/.338/.442 in 2009 and right fielders hit .278/.353/.451 according to Baseball Prospectus.

I don’t care how good a hitter you think Willis can be. The likelihood of him being that good after one season of at bats in the minors is incredibly remote. Look at how hard it’s been for the Tigers’ actual outfield prospects to crack the major league roster. Ryan Raburn had to show he could hit Triple A pitching for almost three years before he got his shot. Clete Thomas is in danger of starting 2010 in the minors this season and go ask Wilkin Ramirez or Casper Wells how easy it is to get regular at bats in Detroit.

The more you think about the reality of the situation of Willis and the Tigers, the more the idea falls apart. Obviously, it comes from people seeing what the Cardinals did with Rick Ankiel. That’s another flaw in the plan. The Cardinals were able to do it with Rick Ankiel because Ankiel was still a relatively cheap player when he was making the transition. He didn’t cost them much as he climbed through the minors as a hitter and they even had him on the cheap once he reemerged in the majors as an outfielder. The Tigers would have been paying Willis $10 million to chase balls in Lakeland and crossing their fingers that he could get 200 or 300 at bats as a bat off the bench making $12 million this season.

Like I said, it’s an idea that needs to be put to bed. If the Tigers release Willis and somebody else can convince him to take a shot as an outfielder on the Tigers’ dime (120 million dimes, actually) I salute everybody involved. It was never going to happen in Detroit, though, and it never would have been a good idea. Now let’s talk about converting Joel Zumaya back into a starter.

We finally come to right field as we close up the position prospects. It's not the strongest of the Tigers' outfield spots, to say the least, but it will provide some interesting prospects to watch as Tiger fans wonder who might step into the position should Magglio Ordonez's contract ever stop adding option years. Ages are as of 4/1/10.

Brennan Boesch, Erie
24, 6’6”, 210, Bats: Left

PA: 571
AVG: .275
OBP: .318
SLG: .510
XBH%: 42.1
BB%: 5.8
K%: 22.2
wOBA: .367

Boesch opened himself up to some locker room teasing by getting a shiner from a wind blown flyball in the first game of the spring. If he can unleash some of that big time power that led to his hitting 61 extra base hits last season - including 28 homers - he may be remembered for something else before spring breaks.

What he’s unlikely to shake by the time the teams head north, though, are what seem like his struggles with pitch recognition and plate discipline. He struck out 127 times last season, which as you can see above was almost four times more than the number of walks he drew. The strikeouts are going to suppress his batting average and the lack of walks is going to keep his on-base percentage down around .300 even when he hits .275. That batting average, by the way, was his highest mark since his pro debut in Oneonta back in 2006.

Boesch is clearly a good athlete who can match that power with enough speed to get him seven triples and 11 stolen bases in 13 tries. I will just need to see him either work out or work around what are reported to be huge holes in his swing to believe he can do it.

Avisail Garcia, West Michigan (Lakeland, 3 G not shown in stats below)
18, 6’3”, 190, Bats: Right

PA: 315
AVG: .264
OBP: .289
SLG: .324
XBH%: 17.7
BB%: 2.5
K%: 22.2
wOBA: .279

Garcia’s numbers last season with West Michigan were pretty awful. I’m a numbers guy when it comes to prospects and I’m not going to say they weren’t. The number that has him rated as the Tigers’ second best right field prospect, though, is 17. That’s what he was when he broke into the Whitecaps’ lineup and that speaks to both his talent level and what the Tigers think of him as a player.

That allows me to overlook the ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio and the fact that he made ten errors as an outfielder. This kid is big, tore up the VSL when he was 16, going on 17, and made his domestic debut in a full season league. That makes me very interested to see what he’s going to do in a second go-around in the Midwest League.

Kody Kaiser, Lakeland
24, 5’8”, 180, Bats: Both

PA: 193
AVG: .267
OBP: .363
SLG: .461
XBH%: 40.9
BB%: 11.9
K%: 28.5
wOBA: .383

Kaiser has probably been described as a spark plug or something similar a lot in his career. I’d love to see him play because the stats paint a picture of a guy who just tears around the field. He hits for good power, especially when you consider his size. He’s either fast or a very good baserunner, since he has stolen 54 bases in about the equivalent of two seasons as a pro. The problem is the last thing that puts that image in my head is the fact that he strikes out almost a quarter of the time he comes to the plate.

So you see good power, good speed and a ton of strikeouts and you immediately think he’s just a good athlete who can fight his way through being clueless about the strike zone. That’s another interesting thing about him. He’s drawn walks in over ten percent of his career plate appearances. When you think about it, it’s kind of a shame a player who must be exciting to watch run the bases walks to first or the dugout so much of the time.

In the end, as exciting as I assume Kaiser is to watch as a player, it’s hard to get excited about his chances as a prospect. His listed age is as of 4/1, like always, but that’s deceptive because he turns 25 five days later. A shoulder injury put him out for the season last year in June and now he’s a guy who’s sitting at an advanced age without having proven he can make the tough jump to Double A.

Position Summary: I’m not too crazy about what the Tigers’ minors are offering in right field. Mark Anderson pointing out that Steven Moya will probably move over there in 2010 helps the excitement level for the position.

Still, I’m skeptical of Boesch’s ability to overcome his plate discipline. While Garcia is intriguing, he’s also very clearly a long ways off from a major league roster. I think there’s a big dropoff in potential from Garcia to Kaiser and after Kaiser, well, I didn’t do an honorable mention if that tells you anything. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic. Maybe Alexis Espinoza or Chao-Ting Tang surprise me. I’m just going to need to see a good season from each before they’ll show up in this type of article.

Casey Fien was plucked from the waiver wire by the Boston Red Sox. Some people probably view other members of the Tigers' 40-man roster as more expendable than Fien, but I'm not terribly concerned about this loss. The main reason is I seriously doubt Fien would have cracked the Opening Day roster for the Tigers. The Tigers appear to have too many other relievers in front of him on the depth chart. In fact, I'm not certain a couple relievers who aren't on the 40-man yet aren't better relievers than Fien right now. The one who comes to mind first when I say that is Robbie Weinhardt.

Now, it might make you a little nervous to know a very smart and well run club like the Red Sox were the team to take Fien. I say, "Meh". He's a right-handed reliever with good control and command. Perhaps they think his skill set is well suited to Fenway Park and an outfield that should be able to run down a lot of fly balls now that they've added Mike Cameron. Or maybe they plan to hold on to him long through March and hope he slips through waivers when the wire is flooded with activity later in the spring. Whatever Boston's reasoning, it doesn't change the fact that this isn't a big deal to Detroit.

The Tigers get a little help from a trade in boosting this category's clout. The other two players profiled are guys who could make a quick name for themselves if they could iron out some troubling kinks in their respective games. There may not be a great amount of depth at this position, but if the Tigers traded well in December they probably won't need it in the near future.

Austin Jackson, Columbus
23, 6’1”, 185, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .300
OBP: .354
SLG: .405
XBH%: 23.8
K%: 22.1
BB%: 7.2
wOBA: .348

With the popularity and prodution of Curtis Granderson, the view of the big trade of the Tigers’ 2009 offseason is likely going to turn on the ultimate success of Austin Jackson. That’s in terms of popular perception and on-the-field production. So what if he turns out to be the hitter the Tigers are hoping he can be while providing center field defense reportedly equal or better to what they received in center the past four seasons? The Tigers would continue to get excellent production from the center fielder and the trade would have netted them a likely upgrade in their rotation (going from Jackson to Scherzer) and bullpen. Added payroll flexibility in 2011, 2012 and 2013 would make it a clear win.

So how likely does it seem that Jackson will be the center fielder the Tigers are hoping he becomes? A lot of that is going to depend on how successful the Tigers are at getting him to go to the plate with an approach suited to a major league leadoff hitter. He’s shown flashes in his career of drawing a number of walks close to what you’d hope for from that spot, but it’s alarming that his strikeouts jumped up to where they tripled his walks last season.

Was there something he was working on that explains the apparent drop in command of the strike zone? One possible explanation is a random sampling of box scores throughout the season would seem to suggest Jackson spent the better part of the season hitting down in the order. Tiger fans should be hopeful a move up to the leadoff spot would bring back an approach designed to get on base more.

If Jackson was swinging for power because he was down in the lineup, it’s not an approach that paid off for him. His .105 isolated power last season was his lowest mark in that category since 2006, when he was a 19-year old playing A ball.

It would seem the smart direction in coaching Jackson would be to get him to focus on swinging at pitches he can hit, making contact and letting the power come with his physical maturity. If that can get him to bump up his walks, cut down his strikeouts and make use of a high BABIP that he’s shown throughout his career, he could be a useful bat even if the power never develops. Put that offensive package with a good center fielder who adds value on the bases and the Granderson trade could turn in the Tigers’ favor sooner than expected.

Casper Wells, Erie
25, 6’2”, 210, Bats: R

PA: 367
AVG: .260
OBP: .369
SLG: .489
XBH%: 45.7
K%: 28.1
BB%: 11.7
wOBA: .381

Wells made a little bit of a surprise return to Erie in 2009, and went down with a wrist injury early in the season, missing almost two months. When he returned, he was able to show his breakthrough 2008 season was anything but a fluke. He wasn’t able to duplicate the impressive numbers he posted in his half season in Erie in 2008, but his production was close enough that he remains a legitimate prospect.

I assume the biggest concern with Wells is his poor contact numbers. He struck out a lot last season. I can usually live with that if the Ks come with production, but I took a close look at his time in the Arizona Fall League. When I did, I discovered while he is pretty good at deciding when a pitch is good to hit, he isn’t necessarily good at making contact when he does swing. The good decisions make for excellent “damage to contact” ratios, but the low contact percentage will suppress his batting average.

If it’s a problem that persists, his eventual worth will depend on whether he can continue to draw walks and hitting for power when pitchers realize which pitches he has trouble putting the bat on. If the extra base hits and walks continue to come, we will be able to live with a batting average that looks like it will probably stay in the .240 to .260 range. That low average will be even easier to live with if reports that he can play all three outfield positions well and has an excellent arm prove to be true.

This coming season could provide us a good idea of where Wells’ skillset is going to take him. Even if he spends the entire season in Toledo, dealing with more advanced pitchers should point to how he will be able to handle, or perhaps improve, contact issues. Success in doing so - and good value on defense - should put him as either a first or second alternative when one of the Tigers’ outfielders goes down to injury.

Ben Guez, West Michigan
23, 5’10”, 175, Bats: R

PA: 557
AVG: .275
OBP: .320
SLG: .483
XBH%: 47.7
K%: 21.7
BB%: 4.1
wOBA: .363

Guez is almost a very intriguing prospect. He hit for a good batting average considering the environment in the Midwest League. He showed a lot of power, as almost half his hits went for extra bases. He is a good center fielder who was able to steal 11 bases in 15 tries and was fast enough to leg out 7 triples. That batting average wasn’t inflated by an unreasonable BABIP if you allow that faster runners can be expected to have higher than average marks in that category (especially ones who hit the ball this hard). He’s probably not going to get by in the .360s every year but the season he had would have been notable with a much lower number, too.

So why is he third on this list and why has his name not come up all that much when Tiger outfield prospects are mentioned? That walk rate is completely unacceptable. You simply do not get by walking only a fifth as much as you strike out, and when you’re 22 in the Midwest League that is especially true.

Let’s not throw him to the scrap heap just yet, though. It’s tempting to only consider players’ most recent season, but we can’t simply ignore what proceeded their most recent seasons. Guez played for Oneonta in 2008 and drew 33 walks in just 305 plate appearances. Was he watching wild, young pitchers miss the plate with straight fastballs? That’s possible, and certainly if I’m paying attention to one of these seasons compared to the other I’m definitely putting much more weight on 2009. Still, I think Guez has better plate discipline in him than what we saw in 2009 and considering the results he saw when his plate discipline was garbage, I’m wondering what he could do should it ever improve.

Honorable mentions: Jamie Johnson was drafted in the 7th round of the 2009 draft and as the O-Tigers’ primary center fielder put up a line of .241/.345/.367 in a league where the average line was .245/.320/.351. It’s not exceptional production, but it’s above average while playing a premium defensive position. That gets a mention from me every time. I’m also going to throw Kyle Peter a mention. He missed a big chunk of last season to injury, but he’s still a very fast baserunner who can play quality center field and knows his strike zone. I doubt he’ll ever hit enough to make the big leagues, but he’ll probably help a few pitchers keep their ERAs down enough to catch some attention.

This series seemed to pick up some momentum in terms of traffic as the post on shortstops picked up some links. As we move to the outfield, we see a group of left fielders whose destinies might be as role players if they ever make the majors at all. Of course, one of the players is too far off to know if he'll even make it past Lakeland.

Wilkin Ramirez, Toledo/Detroit
24, 6’2”, 190, Bats: R

PA: 481/13
AVG: .258/.364
OBP: .326/.385
SLG: .445/.818
XBH%: 36.6/50.0
K%: 29.7/23.1
BB%: 8.5/7.7
wOBA: .350/.468

People are probably ready to see Wilkin Ramirez get a chance, but the truth is he simply hasn’t shown he’s ready to handle a full-time job at the major league level. With that being the case, his problems are only going to get worked out (if they ever get worked out) with game reps. That’s going to have to happen at the Triple A level unless Guillen, Raburn and Damon have a mishap during a male bonding trip to Epcot.

Having said that, I’m skeptical as to whether another year of Wilkin’s hit or miss approach down in Toledo is going to help him much. The numbers he posted there in 2009 were very similar to his 2008 numbers in Erie aside from an elevated BABIP in 2008. That’s encouraging considering it was a step up, but it didn’t really look like the growth the Tigers must have been hoping to see.

So have we seen what Ramirez has to offer? He’s made improvements in his approach at the plate judging by his numbers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s settled in close to where he’s going to be in terms of walk and strikeout rates. If that’s the case, it’s hard to make a living with a 4:1 K to BB ratio.

That means he’ll have to develop, or at least maintain, his power stroke and make good use of his speed on the bases. Those legs may help get back some of the batting average he loses to strikeouts. Some stolen bases and good power might allow him to stay useful - though maybe as a platoon player or a fourth outfielder - despite an on-base percentage a little too close to .300. It will just be more difficult if he doesn’t develop outfield instincts that can make better use of his speed on defense.

Andy Dirks, Lakeland/Erie
24, 6’0”, 195, Bats: L

PA: 117/408
AVG: .330/.255
OBP: .410/.323
SLG: .379/.349
XBH%: 14.7/22.8
K%: 9.4/15.0
BB%: 11.1/8.8
wOBA: .388/.311

Dirks won out in a group of left field prospects who are a bit old for their level but have some interesting pieces to their game. You can see the others below, but let’s focus on the one I view as having the most potential. He was taken in the 8th round of the 2008 draft and after signing fairly quickly, was assigned to West Michigan. Unfortunately, he broke his hand just three games into his pro career and didn’t again until rehabbing in the GCL in August.

Nevertheless, the Tigers like the “dirt dog” and assigned him to Lakeland to start the 2009 season. To say he took to the promotion may be a bit of an understatement as he only lasted until May before being called to Erie. When the call came, he was hitting well, had walked more than he struck out and stolen 10 bases in 12 tries. It seemed obvious his stock was rising. The aggressive move to Erie seemed to tripped him up, though. He didn’t walk as much, struck out more and didn’t have as many hits falling in. He looked to be a bit lost against lefties and when it was all said and done, it was hard not to chalk the season up as a disappointment after the notable start.

Let’s not write him off quite yet, though. He barely has a season professional ball under his belt and will still be starting the 2010 season in Erie. He has good speed, good defense in the outfield from what I’ve heard and good contact skills. If he gets back to drawing walks, batting from the left side, he could work his way back into the picture as a prospect. If you want that picture to be of him in the field, though, it’s probably going to have to be in the late innings. If he makes the show, I doubt it will be as a starter.

Steven Moya, DSL Tigers
18, 6’6”, 220, Bats: L

PA: 255
AVG: .252
OBP: .361
SLG: .372
XBH%: 25.5
K%: 22.7
BB%: 12.9
wOBA: n/a

Moya is quite a bit younger than most prospects I pay attention to. He’s just 18 and has spent only one season in the DSL. Then again, most 18-year old prospects playing in the Dominican aren’t built like NBA small forwards. Take that frame and add in the fact that he was included in the Tigers’ Instructional League, meaning he’s likely going to play in the States in 2010, and you have an intriguing prospect.

I can’t say enough times that numbers at the low levels don’t mean much, but I still like that he was an above average hitter in the DSL as a 17-year old playing his first pro season. I’m particularly surprised by the walk rate, given that he’s 6’6”, but that can probably be attributed to lack of control by DSL pitchers as much as his discipline. Then again, at least he wasn’t always swinging when the pitches weren’t strikes.

In the end, if I’m being honest, I’m simply a sucker for Tiger prospects who are young and interesting. I’m sorry, but a kid who’s this size, swings from the left side and whose skills are trusted enough for the Tigers to bring him to the States? That’s interesting. Incidentally, I put the over/under on the number of mainstream articles mentioning him and bringing up either Tony Clark or Daryl Strawberry at two. I would’ve said one, but then I guess you couldn’t bet the under.

Honorable mention: I have a hard time not lumping together Brent Wyatt, Josh Workman and Deik Scram. As I mentioned above, they’re all old for their level and while they bring some good skills to the ballpark, they're not really the kind that tend to get you noticed. Wyatt is 25 and spent last season in West Michigan, but drew 67 walks against 71 strikeouts, stole 23 bases in 32 attempts and would have turned in a good season with better luck on balls in play (.276 BABIP).

Workman, 24, was called up to Lakeland about the time Kyle Peter went down to injury, but held his own when given the chance (.297/.378/.380). That outpaced the FSL’s average hitter by quite a bit and drawing walks was a good part of his game. Being a left-handed hitter could help him, too, but he doesn’t really look like a left fielder at the plate and a promotion to Erie in 2010 is no given.

Finally, there’s Deik Scram. He came the closest to cracking the top three, but he’s 26 and hasn’t played above Erie. Add to that the fact that he’s struck out 248 times in his two seasons in Erie and I just have a hard time envisioning him putting up a decent batting average. His secondary skills can make up for some of that, but I doubt they’ll cover for him if he’s hitting .230 or .240. He has a left-handed bat working in his favor, but you may have noticed most of these other guys do, too. I do, however, get the feeling he’s a plus defender and his holding his own when given a chance in center would seem to support that.

The Tigers designated Casey Fien for assignment to make room for Johnny Damon. This isn’t all that surprising. Fien put up some good numbers in the minors, particularly his strikeout-to-walk numbers (66:15 in Toledo last year and nearly 5:1 in his minor league career), but as a fly ball pitcher became susceptible to the long ball in the upper levels. It seems plausible that could have affected his control once he was called up to Detroit, where he gave up two homers in just eleven innings of work.

Perhaps it was just that Fien is already 26 and the Tigers are loaded with relief prospects who have higher ceilings. Whatever the reason they view as expendable, I’ll be curious to see what happens in the time the Tigers have to either trade him or see if he passes waivers. I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody took a look at his fastball and minor league stats and decided to give him a chance to make one of their final spots in the pen.

The Tigers finally signed Johnny Damon to a one-year deal, further demonstrating cost-saving deals and decisions made this offseason probably weren’t as much about money as initially speculated. I like the signing since it was a one-year deal, but am a little taken back by the fact that Boras talked the Tigers into an $8 million contract. Did the Tigers have to pay a premium to bring him to Detroit rather than Atlanta or Chicago? Dombrowski must have looked at his team and Chicago’s with and without Damon and decided it was worth the extra money.

Money concerns aside, what does this deal do for the Tigers? I already spoke quite a bit about the roster implications for the rest of the team, but on a day-to-day basis what will the Tigers’ lineup look like? Here’s one idea:

CF Jackson (R)
LF Damon (L)
RF Ordonez (R)
1B Cabrera (R)
DH Guillen (S)
3B Inge (R)
C Laird (R)
2B Sizemore (R)
SS Everett (R)

Bench: 
C Avila/Diaz (L)
IF Santiago (S)
OF Raburn (R)
Extra outfielder/infielder (Dlugach/Kelly/Thomas/etc.)

We should know by now, though, that the Tigers under Leyland are not a team that has anything like a set lineup. They had 126 batting orders last year and their most common one was used only seven times. I would expect more of the same this year with injuries, days off and a desire to get bench players their at bats.

This answers the question of the lineup, but what do I think it will do for the Tigers? Damon will provide a regular baserunner for the heart of the lineup, as his .365 on-base percentage would have been third on the Tigers last year, with just Cabrera and Ordonez beating him. Those two weren't going to be in the first two spots of the lineup so adding Damon gives them extra chances to drive in runners. Even if Damon's OBP dips this year, I expect it will be better than anybody else they could have put at the top of the order before his signing.

It also provides the Tigers with a good left-handed bat who should be able to stay high in the lineup even when left-handed starters are going. We also shouldn’t forget he has a fair amount of power in that left-handed bat. Much is being made of the fact that 17 of his 24 home runs came in Yankee Stadium last year, but his road isolated power was still .165. That’s right at the league average and when you talk about the other half of his at bats, I think people are making a bit too much of the difference between Comerica and Yankee Stadium for left-handed hitters. There's a difference, sure, but we're not talking about going from a softball field to the Astrodome.

I think perhaps the most important impact is that it provides the Tigers with depth in terms of the quality of their lineup. Ryan Raburn is a fine player, but I think he’s more of an asset to the team as a good bat off the bench as opposed to a average to below average bat as a starting left fielder. In other words, adding Damon likely gives you an above average left fielder in terms of production and an above average bat off the bench. Prior to Damon, the Tigers likely would have had average production out of left and below average production from that first outfielder off the bench.

Now you may look at Raburn’s stats from last year and say he could be more than and average left fielder. You have to remember, though, that he had more than half his at bats come against lefties last year. If he were starting most games, that would come out to a more normal split where only a quarter of his at bats are coming against lefties. That would have a big effect on his production. It’s probably better for everyone if he stays in a role where his situation puts him at an advantage.

What about the effect of the signing on the Tigers’ defense? Honestly, I don’t know what adding Damon does there. If the Tigers were going to put Raburn in left most days, it’s probably close to a push defensively. Raburn has the better arm (by a lot) but Damon probably has comparable range and better instincts as an outfielder. If this move significantly reduces Carlos Guillen’s time in left field, I have to believe the impact on defense will be very much a positive. By any objective or subjective measures I've seen, Guillen's defense in left is awful.

There are also likely to be some intangible impacts from adding Damon. It seems possible to me his disciplined approach at the plate could rub off on some of the younger players. Maybe Austin Jackson sees him working counts and going six and seven pitches into an at bat and sees the benefit to the team. There could also be some impact at the gates with adding Damon. Even the most casual baseball fan knows who Johnny Damon is and having those recognizable players could keep some extra interest out of the fan’s whose interest wanders away from baseball. Granted, I think that impact is likely minimal but any effect that’s there is probably positive.

To wrap all this up in a very simple package, the impact of adding Damon is full of positives for the 2010 Tigers. Much will be made of giving him $8 million but on the free agent market that’s right around what an average left fielder can expect to make. The Tigers just got a left fielder who will probably be above average.

The Tigers’ shortstops remind me why I don’t particularly enjoy ranking prospects. You have players who have very high ceilings but are either very far from the majors or completely untested. Then you have players with high ceilings and poor results at the higher levels. Finally, you have players with good skills and good numbers but they are at a lower level with noticeable question marks in their game. Figuring out how to weigh performance and ceiling is something I've never really come to terms with and often requires more information than I have available.

Prospect watching blues aside, I’m adding a fourth prospect to the shortstop rankings and including more honorable mentions than I have with the other positions. Part of it is shortstop being an important position where teams are going to have some of their best players. Another part, thankfully, is the fact that the Tigers have some intriguing talent at the position and some guys worth watching in 2010. (Ages are as of 4/1/10)

Daniel Fields, 2009 Draftee
19, 6’2”, 200, Bats: Left

The Tigers paid Fields’ asking price to keep him from going to Michigan. It took a seven-figure bonus and reportedly an opportunity to let him try to stay at shortstop. There don’t seem to be a lot of people who think he can stay there, but with his reported athleticism and skills he would still be an asset at third or center field.

Baseball America has him as the system’s fastest baserunner and best athlete, and while I don’t know if that’s accurate I assume it’s a good sign for him. It’s especially encouraging considering he’s also considered to have very good power from a left-handed swing. The big question for Fields at this point is where is he going to be assigned? The Tigers will use the spring to get a feel for where he belongs and I’d assume a full season assignment to begin the season would mean they liked what they saw.

Audy Ciriaco, Lakeland/Toledo
22, 6’3”, 195, Bats: Right

PA: 470/26
AVG: .262/.160
OBP: .296/.192
SLG: .397/.160
XBH%: 28.4/0.0
K%: 18.9/15.4
BB%: 4.3/3.8
wOBA: .322/.167

Ciriaco has been viewed as a player with a lot of potential ever since the Tigers signed him out of the Dominican back in February of 2005. It was evident they thought a lot of him because in his first season with the organization they sent him to the GCL Tigers. He showed a lot of potential in that debut, but seemed to take a step backward the next season.

He was nonetheless promoted in 2007 to West Michigan, where in two seasons he hit .231/.259/.327. That and a prodigious rate of errors (65 in those two seasons) still didn’t sour the Tigers on the young shortstop. He was promoted to Lakeland last season and he responded by turning in his best season as a pro. The numbers above may not look impressive in the least, however he only turned 22 midseason and those numbers are actually a tick above average in the pitcher-friendly FSL.

Combine with that the fact that the Tigers added him to the 40-man roster to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft and you have an intriguing prospect heading in to 2010. My hesitation is the Tigers don’t have a wonderful track record when it comes to being higher on position players than the prospect watchers. Still, let’s say Ciriaco can take a promotion this year and continue to hit near the league average as a shortstop with good defensive potential. That would make him a valuable asset in the organization.

Gustavo Nunez, West Michigan/GCL Tigers
22, 5’10”, 148, Bats: Switch

PA: 514
AVG: .315/.190
OBP: .360/.261
SLG: .425/.333
XBH%: 21.2/25.0
K%: 12.1/20.8
BB%: 4.9/4.2
wOBA: .358/.324

Signed out of the Dominican in May of 2007, not long after his 19th birthday, Nunez spent just one season in the DSL before coming to Florida in 2008. He split his time between the GCL and Lakeland and the Tigers liked what they saw enough to make him the Whitecaps’ starting shortstop in 2009.

As you can see above, it was a success. He hit for average and made excellent use of what I assume is top notch speed. The Tigers liked him enough to invite him to spring training as a NRI and talked about him during the TigerFest in glowing terms. National prospect writers have inched him into their Tiger top ten prospect lists.

He’s definitely without his question marks, though. As you can see above, he’s very small at an age where it doesn’t seem likely he’s going to add a lot to that frame. That likely means the little power he has is going to come from well placed line drives that allow him to take extra bases. Without much power, he’s going to need to improve his approach at the plate as right now he’s a contact hitter who doesn’t take many free passes.

Without power or a willingness to take walks, he’s going to have to hit for very high averages to be productive. Throw in the fact that he also needs refinement on the basepaths (25 times caught stealing last season) and you could be looking at a player whose speed does more harm than good on offense. There’s still time for him to grow as a player, though, and he’s said to be a good defensive shortstop. Even if he turns out to be a slappy hitter with excellent speed, a lot of players have made long careers out of combining that with good D at shortstop.

Cale Iorg, Erie
24, 6’2”, 182, Bats: Right

PA: 532
AVG: .222
OBP: .274
SLG: .336
XBH%: 28.4
K%: 28.0
BB%: 6.0
wOBA: .277

A couple years ago, Iorg was in a situation similar to Daniel Fields. Sure, he was a couple years older but he was still a player who received a first round bonus with a lot of people around baseball saying the Tigers had overspent. The Tigers, though, confident in their assessment of his skills, threw him right into the mix at Lakeland. He certainly didn’t dominate (he hit .251/.329/.405, or a tad better than league average) but his production was acceptable considering he had elite potential on defense and was coming off two years without baseball.

The Tigers certainly didn’t pull back on their expectations. Not only did he get promoted to Erie, the offseason talk before the 2009 season painted him as the Tigers’ long-term solution at shortstop. He was going to be a major leaguer, and sooner than we expected, we were told by Dave Dombrowski.

Then 2009 happened. There just wasn’t much to grasp onto from his 2009 season. Batting average, plate discipline and power all seemed to take a step backward. His results in the Arizona Fall League weren’t much better. There now seems to be a widely held belief that he was rushed and whether that’s true or not, he faces a 2010 that could be crucial in determining his future.

Something that could end up worsening the situation for Iorg is the fact that things are lining up for him to be promoted to Toledo. That’s certainly not a given, but if it happened it would allow the Tigers to put Ciriaco in Erie and Nunez in Lakeland. The placement of those three shortstops will be one of the biggest questions to be answered in spring training. If Iorg gets placed in Toledo, it will be hard not to wonder whether it was because they believe he can handle the job or if it was to accommodate the other two shortstops.

Honorable mentions: The rest of these shortstops have very short track records, but may have promise as they rise through the ranks of the minors. Hernan Perez was a signing day pickup in 2007, when he was 16, and split his age 18 season between the GCL, West Michigan and Lakeland. I expect him to be in the mix for the starting shortstop job in Grand Rapids. Dixon Machado signed a year after Perez, also as a 16-year old, and was plugged in as the VSL Tigers’ starting shortstop. His slash line (.205/.310/.278) doesn’t jump out at you but he walked as much as he struck out and stole 27 bases in 33 attempts. He’s also 6’ tall and just 140 pounds, so it will be interesting to see if his frame matures, perhaps bringing extra pop with it.

Edwin Gomez was actually taken before Daniel Fields in the 2009 draft, in the fourth round. he struggled in the GCL, but it’s important to remember he didn’t turn 18 until their season was nearly over. He’s already 6’3” and 175 pounds, though, so he’s another one to watch as he develops. Javier Azcona is kind of the Dominican counterpart of Machado. He was 16 on signing day and was the starting shortstop for the DSL Tigers. His numbers at the plate (.249/.350/.398) catch your eye more than Machado, though, as he had 20 of 55 hits go for extra bases and drew 33 walks in 63 games.

Position Summary: The Tigers lack a blue chip, five star prospect in their system but as you can see they’re far from barren. I think they’re assembling a nice stable of shortstops and even if a couple of these guys have to move off the position, they’re amassing a lot of talent. It’s starting to feel like they’re going to have to catch a break at some point and at least one of these guys will figure things out.

Previous posts in this series: 
Third base prospects
Second base prospects
First base prospects 
Catcher prospects

Minor League Blog news: I got an email from Nick Underhill, one of the writers covering Erie for Tigstown.com, that he has started his own blog, http://nickunderhill.com. This is especially pertinent news alongside the topic of my post, since his most recent post talks about how he doesn't think Cale Iorg is ready for Toledo.